Source - Ei R2024-14 Outnyttjad Kapacitet (2024)

Ei R2024:14 — Använda och fördela outnyttjad kapacitet i elnäten (Using and distributing unused capacity in electricity grids). Energimarknadsinspektionen (Ei) response to a Swedish government assignment (uppdrag). December 2024. The report investigates whether DSOs are systematically locking up phantom capacity through luftbokning (air booking) and what regulatory measures, if any, should be introduced.

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Summary

The report concludes that no new regulation is needed for DSOs to use capacity better — the tools already exist or are forthcoming. The primary finding is that DSOs have been calculating available connection capacity incorrectly: by using contracted power (abonnerad effekt) rather than actual physical load (faktisk belastning), they systematically underestimate available capacity and refuse or delay connections that the grid could physically accommodate.

The report reaffirms the factisk belastning doctrine, reviews the forthcoming EU framework for flexible connection agreements (Article 6a), and identifies TOTEX regulatory reform as the long-term structural lever.

Core finding: luftbokning (air booking)

Luftbokning (literally “air booking”) is the practice of planning grid capacity from contracted power levels rather than actual physical load:

• A customer contracts 100 kW of grid capacity (abonnerar 100 kW)
• In practice, the customer never uses more than 60 kW (faktisk belastning)
• The DSO reserves 100 kW in its grid planning — locking up 40 kW as phantom capacity
• Neighbouring customers or new connection applicants are refused because “the grid is full”

At aggregate level, this means a distribution grid may appear congested on paper while being physically underloaded. New connections — EV charging stations, industrial electrification, housing developments — are refused or forced into expensive grid reinforcements, when the physical capacity is already available.

Luftbokning is not malicious — it reflects how DSOs have historically operated under frameworks that rewarded CAPEX (grid building) over OPEX (efficient use). It is also legally easier: contracted capacity is a clear number; actual load requires measurement, analysis, and probabilistic modelling.

The faktisk belastning principle

Faktisk belastning (actual physical load) is Ei’s established doctrine for how DSOs must calculate available capacity for new connection applications:

A DSO must calculate the available capacity on a grid segment using the actual physical load of existing customers, including statistical diversity effects — not the sum of their contracted power capacities.

This principle was first established in Ei’s case work around 2018–2020 and is now formally anchored in EIFS 2022:1 (Ei’s technical framework regulation). R2024:14 reaffirms this doctrine explicitly and provides updated guidance for how DSOs should operationalise it:

1. Use AMI data (hourly smart meter data) to measure actual load, not contracted capacity
2. Apply diversity factors (lastdiversifieringsfaktorer) — a group of customers never all reach their contracted maximum simultaneously
3. Update capacity calculations periodically as load patterns change
4. Document the methodology used, for Ei oversight

Key legal clarification: Abonnerad effekt under EIFS 2022:1 is a cost-allocation criterion (how grid costs are divided among customers), not a right to specific physical grid capacity. A customer who has contracted 100 kW cannot legally claim that the DSO must reserve exactly 100 kW of grid capacity for them at all times. This distinction is critical for the DSO’s capacity calculation methodology.

DSOs cannot unilaterally revise contracts

One nuance the report carefully addresses: while DSOs must use faktisk belastning for capacity availability calculations (new connections, grid planning), they cannot unilaterally reduce a customer’s contracted capacity based on observed actual usage. Abonnerad effekt is a contractual right the customer holds; reducing it requires customer consent or a tariff redesign process.

The implication is asymmetric: the DSO can say “we have room for a new 500 kW customer because your existing customers only use 60% of their contracted capacity in aggregate” — but cannot respond to the same observation by telling existing customers “we’re reducing your contracted capacity to your actual usage.”

Flexible connection agreements: Article 6a (EMDR 2024/1711)

The report gives significant attention to the new EU legal basis for flexible connection agreements:

Article 6a of Directive 2024/1711 (amending the Electricity Market Directive) requires Member States to establish a national framework for flexible connection agreements (FCAs) by a deadline that aligns with the NC DR implementing regulation (expected late 2025). Key requirements:

• Member States must allow DSOs to offer FCAs with defined power caps, curtailment rights, or conditional service terms
• NRAs (Ei in Sweden) must set the rules; DSOs cannot act without this framework
• The FCA framework must be non-discriminatory and transparent
• FCAs must be consistent with the NC DR framework for conditional connection agreements (villkorade avtal)

Status as of R2024:14: The Article 6a implementing regulation from the European Commission was not yet published as of December 2024. Ei was monitoring its development. The forthcoming NC DR T&C process will interact with the national FCA framework.

Implication for Sweden: Ei’s existing Villkorade Avtal framework (EIFS 2022:1, updated per Ei2025:01) is in substance compatible with Article 6a requirements. But it is currently an Ei ställningstagande (position statement), not a formal statutory framework. Article 6a will require transposition into Swedish electricity law (ellagen) or Ei regulations.

TOTEX as the structural lever

The report identifies TOTEX regulatory reform as the long-term solution to DSO incentive misalignment:

“Under the current CAPEX-biased regulatory model, DSOs are rewarded for investing in grid capacity and do not benefit financially from using existing capacity more efficiently through flexibility procurement. TOTEX reform — treating capital and operational expenditures symmetrically for regulatory purposes — is the structural change needed to align DSO incentives with efficient grid use.”

This aligns with SOU 2023:64 (the governmental inquiry into network tariff reform) and with Ei’s own RP5 revenue framework development (2028–). R2024:14 explicitly endorses the TOTEX direction without prescribing a specific implementation model.

Five planned Ei actions

The report lists five concrete actions Ei planned to take following its findings:

1. Publish updated guidance on faktisk belastning methodology — operational detail for DSOs on how to calculate actual load, diversity factors, and capacity availability
2. Supervisory review of capacity calculation practices — tillsyn to check which DSOs are still using contracted power rather than actual load, and enforcement where needed
3. Develop the framework for Article 6a FCAs — coordinate with NC DR T&C development; prepare for statutory implementation
4. Input to RP5 design on TOTEX — contribute Ei’s analysis of flexibility and capacity efficiency to the RP5 revenue framework working group
5. Monitor NC DR T&C process — ensure Sweden’s villkorade avtal framework remains aligned with emerging EU requirements

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