Svenska kraftnät

Sweden’s transmission system operator (TSO). A state-owned enterprise (affärsverk) responsible for operating, maintaining, and developing the Swedish high-voltage transmission grid (stamnätet). Also responsible for the real-time balance of electricity supply and demand across Sweden.

Roles

• Grid owner/operator: owns and operates the ~15,000 km transmission grid (220–400 kV)
• System balance: maintains 50 Hz frequency through balancing markets (FCR, aFRR, mFRR). When reserves are insufficient the control room falls back on out-of-market measures — e.g. on 8 June 2026, two simultaneous faults (an SE2↔SE3 line trip + a −500 MW Swe-Pol Link loss, frequency to 49.80 Hz) exhausted all mFRR bids in SE3/SE4, forcing four gas-turbine starts and 200 MW each imported from Lithuania and Norway. (Source - Svk Driftstörningar 8 Juni 2026, Capacity Adequacy and Flexibility as the Missing Reserve › 8 June 2026 — a reserve-exhaustion event in miniature)
• Grid development: plans and executes transmission grid expansion and reinforcement
• Market facilitator: operates the Swedish Bidding Areas (SE1–SE4) and manages cross-border capacity allocation
• Connection authority: processes connection applications for large generation and consumption facilities
• Elberedskapsmyndighet (electricity preparedness authority): responsible for national transmission-based system restoration after large-scale outages; provides support, funding, and oversight for local/regional ö-drift capability at DSO level. Can compensate costs for capability maintenance, planning, and testing — but only towards actors within the electricity supply chain. (Source - Svk Om Ö-drift (2025))

Current situation

Svk faces an unprecedented expansion challenge. The energy transition is driving simultaneous needs for:

1. Reinvestment in aging infrastructure (many lines and substations from the 1950s–70s reaching end of technical life)
2. System reinforcement to increase north-south capacity (the fundamental Bidding Areas imbalance)
3. New connections for industrial electrification, hydrogen, data centers, offshore wind
4. Market integration via HVDC interconnections with Nordic and European neighbors

The connection queue as of 2025 exceeds 175 GW for input (generation) — roughly 7× Sweden’s peak load. Even though most applications won’t materialize, it signals enormous demand for grid access.

Svk’s planned investment for 2025–2035: SEK 225 billion, a sharp increase from historical levels of ~5,000 MSEK/year to 25,000+ MSEK/year. (Source - Svk Network Development Plan 2026-2035)

The Verksamhetsplan 2026–2028 (government budget submission) details the near-term tranche: 56,800 MSEK in planned investments for 2026–2028 alone, accelerating from 8,396 MSEK actual in 2024 to 15,400 → 20,200 → 21,200 MSEK per year. Total investments 2025–2030 reach ~125 billion SEK; including 2031–2035, ~235 billion SEK. Assets on the balance sheet are projected to grow from 45 billion SEK (2024) to 161 billion SEK (2030). Svk holds ~52 billion SEK at Riksgälden (Swedish National Debt Office) — accumulated from congestion revenue inflows during the 2022–2024 price spread period — and expects no new borrowing until 2030. (Source - Svk Verksamhetsplan 2026-2028)

Key initiatives

• NordSyd — flagship program to increase north-south transmission capacity through four parallel branches
• Gotland connection — new transmission grid connection (two 220 kV AC submarine cables) planned for 2030; replaces existing DC cables; significantly increases capacity and enables further wind generation expansion on Gotland. See Island Operation › Gotland — total defence island operation planning.
• Stockholm package — major system reinforcement for the capital region (SEK 30 billion, the single largest project)
• HVDC interconnectors — see section below; three planned projects paused as of May 2026
• Flow-Based Capacity Calculation — transitioned from NTC in October 2024 for more accurate cross-border capacity allocation
• Centralt datahanteringsverktyg — Svk participates jointly with Ei in a new government assignment (Regeringsbeslut 2025-09-18) to develop a proposal for a central data management tool for the electricity market. Ei coordinates; Svk contributes. This replaces Svk’s 2015 solo mandate (M2015/2635/Ee) to build an elmarknadshubb, which was formally cancelled by the same decision. Proposal due 30 September 2026. (Source - Uppdrag Centralt Datahanteringsverktyg (2025), Elmarknadshubb)
• LT50 — Lead Time 50%: Svk’s strategic programme to halve project lead times across the entire investment portfolio. Identified as critical for matching Svk’s unprecedented investment pace (225 billion SEK, 2026–2035) with the speed at which electricity demand is growing. Tools include: regional dialogue units in all 21 counties, strengthened interaction with county boards/municipalities/regions, new internal roles and working methods, standardisation, and supply chain partnerships. Announced in Svk’s Strategi mot 2030 (2026) as part of the “Elnät i takt med behov” shift area (“halve project lead times”). (Source - Svk Strategi mot 2030 (2026), Source - Nationell Dialog Flexibilitet Nätkapacitet 12 Maj 2026)

Strategy 2030

Svk published its strategic direction document in January 2026, setting out priorities through 2030. (Source - Svk Strategi mot 2030 (2026))

Vision: Ett hållbart och lysande Sverige. Three verksamhetsmål: trygg elförsörjning (including the riksdagsmål of ≥300 TWh by 2045 and the leveranssäkerhetsmål); samhällsekonomisk effektivitet och konkurrenskraft; klimatneutralt och hållbart samhälle.

Five förflyttningsområden (strategic shift areas):

The strategy explicitly identifies flexibility and storage as increasingly important and commits to developing new incentive mechanisms for system capabilities in a more volatile system. The investment level is described as historically high — from ~5,000 MSEK/year to 25,000+ MSEK/year.

V2G and the physical address requirement

Svk requires all ancillary service providers (BSPs) to register a physical address for each resource participating in the balancing market. This requirement — designed for fixed generation and load assets — creates a structural barrier for Vehicle-to-Grid resources. An EV is inherently mobile; it cannot maintain a single registered location while providing grid services from multiple places (e.g., home, workplace, VW dealership) without re-registering each new location.

In practice, this limits V2G ancillary service participation to a single fixed discharge location per vehicle registration — constraining the mobile use case that is one of V2G’s theoretical advantages over stationary storage. (Source - Power Circle V2X Synthesis 2024, Source - KTH Thesis V2G Sweden 2024)

Svk’s 100 MW minimum threshold for BSP participation in ancillary services (FCR, aFRR, mFRR) is a related barrier: individual EV owners cannot reach this threshold alone. Aggregation via an aggregator or OEM fleet portfolio is required. See Vehicle-to-Grid › Ecosystem actors for the OEM fleet aggregation strategic opportunity.

Elområdesindelning — government assignment (due January 2027)

The government assigned Svk in May 2025 (KN2025/01072) to analyze the prerequisites for changing Sweden’s four-area bidding zone structure. The assignment was amended on 28 May 2026 (Regeringsbeslut I:9, KN2026/01206), extending the deadline and substantially expanding the scope. (Source - Ändring Uppdraget Svk Elområdesindelning (2026))

The expanded assignment now includes:

• Analysis of three zone configurations (single zone / two zones at Snitt 2 / ACER alternative) plus export zone concept
• A formal rapport om strukturell överbelastning under Art. 14.7 of Regulation (EU) 2019/943 — the document that can trigger the binding EU bidding zone change process if approved by Ei (starts a 12-month clock)
• A holistic 5–10 year recommendation on the most appropriate zone structure
• If more than 2 areas are recommended: a concrete, timed action plan toward a 2-area structure (reflecting the Tidöavtalet goal of Sweden eventually becoming a samlat elprisområde)

Deadline: 29 January 2027 (extended from original 29 May 2026). See Bidding Areas for full context on the EU BZRR background, the four alternative configurations studied, and the Art. 14.7 process.

HVDC interconnectors — three projects paused (May 2026)

On 7–8 May 2026, the government issued a formal assignment (Regeringsbeslut I:6, KN2026/01027) ordering Svk to submit a revised investment plan for 2027–2029 by 31 July 2026, with three interconnector projects excluded. (Source - Svk Utlandskablar Uppdrag Reviderad Investeringsplan (2026))

Political context — nätpaketet: The government’s stated reason is the direction of the EU nätpaketet (European network package), proposed by the Commission in December 2025 and under Council negotiation. Sweden has two core objections:

1. Flaskhalsinkomster (congestion revenues) — the nätpaketet restricts how member states can use revenues from congestion between bidding zones. Sweden wants to use them for dispatchable fossil-free electricity production, grid reinforcement, and electricity support.
2. EU-level system planning centralization — concentrates electricity system planning at EU level; “very little has happened” on this issue in negotiations.

Some movement on (1) was achieved in recent rounds; Ebba Busch acknowledged partial progress. But the restrictions remain tighter than current rules. Quoted statement: “EU ska inte få svenskarnas elpengar. Bryssel lyssnar just nu inte på oss. Därför pausar vi planeringen för nya kablar för elexport.”

The existing interconnectors (Fenno-Skan 1–2, Konti-Skan 1–2, NordBalt, SwePol, Baltic Cable) remain in operation and are unaffected.

Anvisningssystem — connection process reform (2026)

In April 2026 Svk published a government assignment report (Dnr 2025/5008) proposing major reforms to the transmission grid connection process. (Source - Svk Anslutningsprocessen Rapport (2026))

Proposed anvisningssystem with kapacitetszoner

Svk proposes extending the offshore wind connection model to land-based connections for certain customer categories. The mechanism has two layers:

• Kapacitetszoner (capacity zones): geographically defined areas around transmission connection points with reserved capacity for specific customer categories or system-benefit connections. A kapacitetskarta will show available capacity at current, 5-year, and 10-year horizons.
• Intressentpooler (stakeholder pools): within a zone, projects compete on permit maturity (tillståndsmässig mognad) rather than queue order. For categories where permits are insufficient as criteria, binding commitments (åtaganden) apply instead. Auctions of connection rights were explicitly rejected as unfair to smaller actors and likely to create a secondary capacity market.

The anvisningssystem is intended to generate locational signals — steering certain customer types (e.g., large-scale consumption, hydrogen production) toward areas that benefit the system by co-locating with generation surplus, providing flexibility, or enabling voltage regulation.

Implementation timeline: Svk’s stated ambition is to begin implementing the anvisningssystem in 2027. (Source - Svk Anslutningsprocessen Webb (2025))

See Anvisningssystem for full treatment.

Fossil-free production requirements under investigation

Svk proposes investigating whether new large-scale electricity users should be required to arrange new fossil-free production as a condition of connection (e.g., via a PPA). The concern: data centers and similar facilities establish in months, while fossil-free generation takes years to permit and build. If consumption grows faster than production, a national energy deficit follows. Svk will continue analysis of the legal and economic feasibility. (Power Purchase Agreement)

Coordination improvements

• Linked applications: production and consumption applicants may file jointly, sharing grid costs and reducing transmission expansion needs
• Ansökningsplattform: Svk reverses its 2024 position and will now investigate whether a central platform for connection queue information would facilitate business matching. Stakeholder consultations confirmed demand for this.
• Tidig guidande dialog: Svk will introduce early guidance dialogue with large prospective applicants before formal application
• Obligatorisk trepartsdialog: mandatory three-way dialogue (Svk + regional grid company + large customer) for major connection applications

Cost allocation guidance

The assignment also includes a separate deliverable: a vägledning om kostnadsfördelning (cost allocation guidance) for new transmission connections and subscription expansions, covering both generation (inmatning) and consumption (uttag). This guidance addresses how grid investment costs are shared when new connections or subscription increases are granted. Not yet published separately from the main April 2026 report. (Source - Svk Anslutningsprocessen Webb (2025))

Capacity threshold clarification

The existing planning thresholds (100 MW for a new 220 kV station; 300 MW for a new 400 kV station) are not hard requirements for direct Svk application — they are internal planning benchmarks. All applications must still go through the lowest appropriate voltage level first. Svk recommends Ei analyse whether ellagen needs amendment to ensure consistent compliance with this principle. Svk will update its Principer och vägledning för anslutning till Stamnätet document on 1 July 2026.

Kapacitetskarta — live capacity map (launched May 2026)

In May 2026 Svk published the first version of the Kapacitetskarta transmissionsnätet — a public, county-level map showing indicative available capacity on the transmission grid. It is a transparency initiative ahead of the proposed Anvisningssystem formal kapacitetszoner, currently county-level (by substation geography) with monthly updates from June 2026 and 2030/2035 time horizons to follow. (Source - Svk Kapacitetskarta 2026)

Methodology limits: county figures cannot be summed to a national total; the 2026 near-term column and the 2027–2035 columns use different network models and cannot be netted; values of exactly 500 MW represent the “>500 MW” display ceiling. The map covers stamnätet only — no visibility into regional or local DSO constraints.

Key findings from the March 2026 snapshot (all values in MW):

The 22,750 MW ansökt uttag in Norrbotten alone is roughly 3× Sweden’s national peak load — even after heavy discounting for speculative applications, the realized fraction would require transformative SE1 grid reinforcement, underpinning the NordSyd program and the SE1–SE2 snitt 1 capacity target of 7,500 MW by 2045.

Localization principles and national målnät 2045

In its February 2025 report Planering för ökad elanvändning (KN2025/00635), Svk established four principles for where new production, consumption, and flexibility resources should connect to most efficiently develop the electricity system. These are the geographic framework that underpins the Anvisningssystem kapacitetszoner concept:

1. Regional balance: New production should target regions with a structural deficit
2. Plannable production near inflexible consumption: Near cities and services — reduces grid capacity need, losses, and supports civil defense/ö-drift capability
3. Weather-dependent production near flexible consumption: Variable generation should be sited near consumption that can follow the supply profile, or near large-scale flexibility resources
4. Flexibility resources reduce system costs: Industrial establishments designed for flexibility reduce operating costs and national capacity shortage risk

The report explicitly excludes analysis of how tariffs and bidding areas steer localization — that question falls outside Svk’s current assignment scope.

Regional plans (as of February 2025):

• Norrbottens/Västerbottens: snitt 1 (SE1–SE2) target 7,500 MW by 2045 (from 3,300 MW today); 60–65% of long-term regional peak demand tied to hydrogen production; coastal zones Boden/Luleå, Piteå, Skellefteå prioritized for plannable production
• Skåne: snitt 4 norrgående target 3,600 MW by 2045 (from 2,800 MW); western coastal strip Ängelholm–Trelleborg highlighted for plannable production
• West Sweden plan in progress (expected Q2 2025)

National målnät 2045: Svk’s ambition is to publish a comprehensive national target grid for 2045 during 2026, built from regional plans completed sequentially. (Source - Svk Planering för ökad elanvändning (2025))

Government decision (KN2025/01694, 2025-09-04): Signed by Ebba Busch and Jan-Olof Lundgren, assigning Svk the formal anvisningssystem development task. The decision requires consultation with Ei, DSO system operators, and Accelerationskontoret (dir. 2024:57 — the committee facilitating industry’s green transition). The two riksdag-adopted goals (leveranssäkerhetsmål and planeringsmål for 300 TWh by 2045) were voted May 29, 2024. (Source - Svk Uppdrag Anslutningsprocessen Regeringsbeslut (2025))

Civil defense — civilplikt

Svk is activating civilplikt (civil duty) within electricity supply under a government mandate to train and assign 1,000 civil duty personnel by 2028. This creates a reserve workforce for electricity supply under heightened preparedness and wartime conditions.

Cost profile: ~33.6 MSEK (2025), rising to ~58.8 MSEK/year (2026–2028). Civilplikt personnel are assigned to specific roles within the electricity supply chain and can be mobilised during crises or war. (Source - Svk Verksamhetsplan 2026-2028)

Related investments: transformer protection hardening, mobile distribution stations, cybersecurity training for industrial control systems, and regional ö-drift capability. The military-civil dual-use capability target (robusthet, reparationsberedskap, ö-drift) — electricity supply must resist, manage, and recover from disturbances, crises, and wartime conditions — underlies much of Svk’s current operational security investment.

ERAA 2025 scenarios — Svk’s FNA system needs input

Svk uses the ERAA 2025 (European Resource Adequacy Assessment, ENTSO-E) National Trends / Central Reference Scenario as the basis for the system-level component of the Flexibility Need Assessment. Svk’s national input data was derived from KMA2024 and LMA2024.

Sweden installed generation capacity (ERAA 2025, MW):

Electricity demand and DSR (ERAA 2025, 2030/2035):

• Total Sweden: 177 TWh (2030), 204 TWh (2035)
• DSR national: 2,287 MW (2030) → 4,465 MW (2035)
• Batteries: 8,077 MW (2030) → 15,503 MW (2035)

DSR by bidding area (post-EVA):

• SE1: 300 MW (2030) → 1,090 MW (2035)
• SE2: 210 MW (2030) → 920 MW (2035)
• SE3: 2,970 MW (2030) → 5,240 MW (2035) — dominant share, consistent with SE3’s population/industry
• SE4: 680 MW (2030) → 1,220 MW (2035)

These are scenario assumptions, not targets. (Source - FNA Webinar 7 (2026-03-16))

FNA role

Svk is the national aggregator for the Flexibility Need Assessment (FNA). The reporting chain runs: lokalnät → regionnät → Svk → ACER + European Commission. Svk compiles the national picture, performs TSO-level analysis, and is responsible for the market barriers and digitalization evaluation (coordinating a survey across DSOs and flexibility providers).

In the first FNA cycle (2026), Svk and Ei agreed that Svk will not report transmission network flexibility needs — this is deferred to FNA 2028 due to insufficient methodology maturity. The FNA 2026 therefore covers only distribution-level needs.

Svk also has a data provision role: it must inform overlying regionnät (and through them, lokalnät) about the indicative capacity at connection points for target years 2030 and 2035 — the capacity indications that DSOs need to assess their own flexibility requirements. (Source - FNA Överenskommelse Svenskt genomförande 2026 (2025))

BRP agreement framework — Avtal 5938

The BRP agreement (Avtal 5938, version 5938-2, in force 2025-11-01) is the mandatory market access contract for all balance responsible parties in the Swedish system. It is the companion contract to the BSP agreement (Avtal 5937). (Source - Svk BRP Avtal 5938-2 (2025))

BRP obligations: maintain per-quarter, per-bidding-area balance between supply and demand; submit production/consumption plans D-1 by 16:00, updated until 45 minutes before each delivery quarter; economically responsible for all Obalans (imbalances).

Fee structure: Grundavgift (on volume), Obalansavgift (on imbalance), fixed Veckoavgift, plus a Strategisk reserv surcharge on SE3 and SE4 consumption — weekdays 06:00–22:00, 16 November–15 March.

Strategisk reserv is Sweden’s new national capacity mechanism under Lag 2025:50 (om finansiering av en kapacitetsmekanism för elmarknaden) and Förordning 2025:835. Svk may procure strategic reserve capacity for winter peak periods; when activated, imbalance prices are set at VoLL or 1 EUR above the intraday technical price cap (whichever is higher). The reserve applies only in SE3/SE4, reflecting that capacity risk is concentrated in the southern consumption zones.

First procurement failed (autumn 2025): Svk conducted the inaugural strategisk reserv procurement for winter 2025/2026 — all submitted bids exceeded the CONE (Cost of New Entry) price cap and no contracts were signed. The CONE reference technology was household demand response (hushållsbaserad efterfrågeflexibilitet) — the cheapest new entry option — but all actual bidders were production-side resources (generators) with substantially higher entry costs. Sweden entered winter 2025/2026 without a contracted strategic reserve. Svk assessed that the positive market balance (~1,000 MW surplus at normalvinter) meant this did not threaten security of supply in the immediate term, but the mechanism failure is a significant policy concern. (Source - Svk Kraftbalansen Höst 2025)

Proposed version 5938-3 (consultation open until 8 May 2026; planned effective 2026-09-01) includes: new control object (Reglerobjekt) registration deadline shortened from 14 days to 3 days before start (aligning with the supplier-switch confirmation window); new clause for mandatory direct implementation of legislative changes.

BSP role delay and Article 18 terms

The Balance Service Provider (BSP) role is required by the EB GL (Regulation 2017/2195) Art. 18. The EB GL mandates that TSOs develop national balancing terms for BSPs and BRPs, explicitly including rules that enable aggregation of demand facilities, storage, and generation across BRP portfolios. Deadline: December 2020. (Source - EB GL (Regulation 2017-2195))

Svk’s current implementation: consolidated version dated 2024-04-29 (reference 2024/2011), approved by Ei. (Source - Svk Artikel 18 Villkor Balansering (2024)) The BSP agreement itself (Avtal 5937, version 2, in force 2024-05-01; current version 5937-2 effective 2025-09-03) is a nine-part framework covering all three products (FCR, aFRR, mFRR) and is the primary contractual basis for all BSP obligations. Settlement is delegated to eSett Oy. (Source - Svk BSP Avtal 5937-2 (2025))

The document defines FCR/aFRR/mFRR objects that “can consist of units with different BRPs” — but then requires all units in a bid to belong to the same BSP. The BSP layer exists as a formal concept; the bid architecture does not enable cross-BRP aggregation in practice. This is the specific mechanism behind the “paper construction” description.

Full BSP implementation — with genuine cross-BRP bid capability — is deferred to 2028. FlexAbility Delrapport 5 (2025) identifies this as the worst deterioration of any flexibility barrier identified in interviews, and the most frequently cited frustration across all 60 interviews. Practical consequence: aggregators with hundreds of MW of qualified resources spend up to 50% of their working time on BRP management friction. Estimated immediate impact of a functional BSP: +300 MW entering the market. (Source - FlexAbility Delrapport 5 (2025))

The BSP implementation gap is also linked to the centralt datahanteringsverktyg — the compensation infrastructure for independent aggregation (required by EB GL Art. 18.5.c) that Ei is required to design by September 2026.

Flaskhalsinkomster (congestion income)

Svk receives substantial annual congestion income from price differences between the four Swedish bidding zones and at cross-border interconnectors. Ei approves Svk’s proposed use annually (Art. 19.4, Regulation (EU) 2019/943). The scale is significant:

The accumulated balance reflects years where inflows exceeded approved expenditures; Svk draws on it to smooth annual variation. (Source - Ei Beslut Flaskhalsinkomster 2027 (2026))

Approved uses (2027 decision, ärendenummer 2026-101903, decided 2026-05-29):

• Mothandel (countertrading): 65 mnkr — purchasing energy to relieve intra-zone congestion
• Överbelastningshantering: 520 mnkr — 1,309 MW contracted across 20 resources and 10 plants; real-time activation without prior notice; contracted to December 2029; the bridge capacity measure in SE3/SE4 pending grid reinforcement
• Reaktiv effekt: 34 mnkr — reactive power procurement for voltage control
• EPAD support: 20 mnkr — financial products hedging cross-zone price differences. Svk has run a pilot EPAD auction program since February 2023, arranged by Svensk Kraftmäkling AB (SKM), covering monthly/quarterly/yearly contracts in SE2, SE3, and SE4. Auctions use marginal pricing; ~25 participants on average per auction (Q1 2026). The platform migrated to Euronext in Q1 2026 (previously Nasdaq Oslo ASA).
• KAPRIFOL / Nordic RCC: 180 mnkr — Svk’s program for implementing the Nordic Regional Coordination Centre (NRCC) under SO GL
• 15 network investment projects: 3,472 mnkr — specific grid projects co-funded from congestion income
• CNE maintenance + transfer losses + emergency preparedness: 1,176 mnkr
• Kraftsystemhubben: 11 mnkr — real-time system data exchange program, closing mid-2027
• Tariff reduction: ~6.8 GSEK — direct subsidy reducing transmission charges to all tariff payers

The HVDC interconnector pause (May 2026) is partly motivated by the EU nätpaketet’s potential restrictions on how congestion income can be used — Svk and the government want to preserve flexibility to use these revenues for dispatchable fossil-free production, grid reinforcement, and electricity support measures. (Source - Svk Utlandskablar Uppdrag Reviderad Investeringsplan (2026))

Kapacitetsåtgärder — joint TSO-DSO connection bridge concept

In 2025, Svk and Vattenfall Eldistribution jointly developed a concept for procuring temporary flexibility to bridge connection gaps before grid reinforcement is in place. Kapacitetsåtgärder (capacity measures) would procure production capacity, energy storage, or demand reduction under longer-term contracts, activated when a newly connected customer’s demand would otherwise require curtailment.

A pilot was launched for the Västra Götalandsregionen to bridge an identified gap. The pilot was concluded before procurement took place — industrial customers’ plans shifted timelines and Svk’s transmission expansion proved sufficient to 2035. However, Svk considers the methods and tools developed viable for future applications where new connections cannot wait for grid reinforcement.

This concept differs from Villkorade Avtal (which restrict the connected party’s behaviour) by procuring third-party resources to compensate for the curtailment risk, potentially allowing more conventional connection terms. It also differs from the strategic reserve and overbelastningshantering by being oriented toward enabling connections rather than system balance. (Source - Svk Uppdrag 3.1 Leveranssäkert Elsystem (2026))

Capacity adequacy — Uppdrag 3.1 (June 2026)

Svk’s annual capacity adequacy report (government assignment 3.1) based on ERAA2025 shows southern Sweden (SE3/SE4) on course for ~6h LOLE in 2028 against the 1h/year EU norm. The strategic reserve procured to date (350 MW) covers only a fraction of the 750–1,100 MW that ERAA2025 indicates would be needed to meet the 1h norm. Key bridge measures: 1,350 MW överbelastningshantering contracted to December 2029 and ~1,100 MW in plants outside the ERAA model.

Ei’s reliability norm review (report due autumn 2026) is the critical gating decision — a relaxation to ~3h LOLE would substantially reduce the required strategisk reserv volume. Long-term, the gap grows to >2,000 MW by 2035 at the 1h norm. (Capacity Adequacy and Flexibility as the Missing Reserve, Source - Svk Uppdrag 3.1 Leveranssäkert Elsystem (2026))

Forskning och innovation — Uppdrag 3.5 (2026)

Svk is legally mandated to promote R&D under Förordning (2025:782) (new Svk instruction replacing the older förordning). The 2026 regleringsbrev included assignment 3.5 requiring Svk to report on research significance, Energimyndigheten utilization, and complementarity between the two funding streams. (Source - Svk Forskning Uppdrag 3.5 (2026))

Budget:

• ~30 mnkr/year in fee-funded R&D (from transmission network customers and balance responsible parties)
• ~6–7 mnkr/year dam safety (anslagsfinansierat)
• ~4–6 mnkr/year electricity preparedness (anslagsfinansierat)

Four R&D areas: Nätteknik, hållbarhet och säkerhet; Elmarknad; Systemutmaningar; Digitalisering.

Key results relevant to this wiki:

• AI-based forecasting: implemented as operational decision support in the control room — wind, consumption, and rotational energy (inertia) forecasts enable proactive reserve activation and shift from reactive to predictive system operation
• FCR market design: machine learning research used in product design and implementation timelines
• Dynamic Line Rating (DLR): demonstrated potential for higher utilization of existing overhead lines; not yet operationally deployed
• Power flow controllers: analysis shows potential to relieve bottlenecks without new lines; pilot studies recommended
• Energilager for transmission capacity: useful as complement but cannot replace grid investment as general solution — value is highly location-dependent
• Flexibility methods: explicitly named as R&D priority — identifying, valuing, and activating flexibility resources; market model development across timehorizons and geographic scales

Energimyndigheten relationship: The report identifies that externally funded research (Energimyndigheten) is not systematically utilized within Svk. Recommended: structured dialogue on research needs, Svk role in shaping Energimyndigheten program calls, more active participation in strategic investments. The two streams are complementary — Energimyndigheten covers broad knowledge development and demonstration; Svk covers operational translation and system-specific implementation.

International cooperation: ENTSO-E RDIC (Research, Development and Innovation Committee); Nordic R&D Group (SE/NO/FI/DK TSOs); CIGRE; Energiforsk (Svk is part-owner).

Relevance to flexibility

Svk’s grid development timelines are long (10–15 years for major projects), and demand for grid access is growing much faster than the grid can be built. This creates the structural need for Flexibility:

• Congestion management between bidding areas — until NordSyd and other reinforcements are built, flexibility must help manage the north-south bottleneck
• Conditional connection agreements — Svk explored TSO-level equivalents of Villkorade Avtal but found full-scale implementation impossible with current systems and tools, highlighting the digital infrastructure gap
• Hydrogen co-planning — co-locating flexible hydrogen production with northern generation could reduce the need for south-bound transmission
• Coordination with DSOs — Svk and DSOs may need flexibility from the same resources, creating coordination challenges that regulation must resolve

(Source - Svk Network Development Plan 2026-2035)