Source - Svk Planering för ökad elanvändning (2025)

Type: Report — government assignment deliverable Author: Affärsverket svenska kraftnät Reference: Svk 2025/400; government assignment KN2025/00635 (regleringsbrev 2024) Date: 2025-02-21 Pages: 46

Summary

Svk’s response to a 2024 regleringsbrev assignment with two components: (1) describe TSO-DSO cooperation on network planning, and (2) visualize for market actors where production, flexibility resources, and consumption should connect for more efficient grid development. This report is the geographic and methodological foundation that the Anvisningssystem concept is built on — the government’s September 2025 assignment to develop the anvisningssystem explicitly references KN2025/00635 as the baseline framework.

Key content

Four localization principles

The report establishes four principles indicating where new electricity production, consumption, and flexibility resources should be sited:

1. Regional balance: New production should target regions with a structural deficit — increase regional balance between consumption and production.
2. Plannable production near inflexible consumption: Dispatchable/controllable production should be placed near consumption with least flexibility capability (cities, services, residential areas). Reduces new grid capacity need and transmission losses. Also serves civil defense: improves ö-drift capability and local access to production. Large industrial establishments with limited flexibility should also be near plannable production.
3. Weather-dependent production near flexible consumption or flexibility resources: Variable (wind, solar) production should be sited near consumption with high flexibility capability, or where large-scale flexibility resources are located — consumption that can follow variable production reduces the need to dimension the grid for low-production periods.
4. More flexibility resources reduce system costs and capacity risk: Additional flexibility resources — including industrial establishments designed to follow supply — reduce system operating costs and the national capacity shortage risk.

The report explicitly excludes analysis of how network tariffs and bidding areas steer localization, noting this is outside scope.

Two regional long-term network development plans

The concept is applied to two pilot regions:

Norrbottens and Västerbottens län:

• Major industrial electrification underway; 20 GW in applications for Norrbotten alone (as of 2024)
• 60–65% of peak demand in the region projected to be tied to hydrogen production for new fossil-free industrial processes
• Flexibility critical: if industrial actors do not design for flexibility, meeting peak demand will be extremely challenging
• Six sub-areas (A–F); snitt 1 (SE1–SE2 internal) capacity target: 7,500 MW by 2045 (up from 3,300 MW today)
• Coastal zones Boden/Luleå, Piteå, Skellefteå highlighted as particularly suitable for plannable production in the 2030s (planned grid upgrades + high consumption + coastal topology with cross-connections)

Skåne län:

• Net import area at all seasons; strategic connection to European continent
• SE3–SE4 boundary; snitt 4 norrgående target: 3,600 MW by 2045 (up from 2,800 MW)
• Western coastal strip Ängelholm–Trelleborg highlighted for plannable production in the 2030s
• Eastern area (Kristianstad–Ystad) has favorable connection conditions but location of specific assets needs to be confirmed

National målnät 2045

Svk’s stated ambition is to publish a comprehensive national målnät (target grid) for 2045 during 2026, building on regional plans produced sequentially. Annex 1 shows the regional plan publication schedule. West Sweden plan expected Q2 2025.

Connection queue overview (Jan 1, 2025)

By resource type:

• Elanvändning (consumption): driven by industrial electrification; near-term capacity available in SE2 and NE SE3; Stockholm by early 2030s (Stockholms Ström + Storstockholm Väst programs, total 4,700 MW); eastern Småland and Skåne favorable
• Havsbaserad vindkraft: up to 14 GW possible at coastal locations (with planned reinforcements to 2041); anvisningssystem already operational for offshore
• Kärnkraft/planerbar produktion: applications at Ringhals, Forsmark (expansion or SMR); Barsebäck grid intact, capacity available for new nuclear at former levels
• Landbaserad vindkraft: ~23 GW in queue, concentrated SE1/SE2; NordSyd enables further connections; slower build-out pace expected
• Solkraft: growing applications; duck curve problem at national scale; needs storage and flexibility integration
• Batterier/energilager: growing applications primarily at lower voltage levels; used for ancillary services (FCR-N, mFRR)
• Kombinationslösningar (wind+solar): “overinstallation” concept under investigation — wind and solar have negative production correlation, enabling more nominal capacity at a connection point than the grid limit

TSO-DSO cooperation structure

Five major regional grid companies: Vattenfall Eldistribution, Ellevio, E.ON Energidistribution, Jämtkraft Elnät, Skellefteå Kraft Elnät.

Forums:

• Nätplaneringsforum — annual strategic discussion, heads of network planning
• Systemforum TSO/DSO — started 2021; system-level strategic issues; includes voltage/reactive power working group
• Nätägardialogen — Svk DG + DSO CEOs, regular strategic dialogue; drives forecast cooperation initiative
• Enskild dialog — individual bilateral meetings 1–2×/year per company
• Prognossamverkan TSO/DSO — 6–8 meetings/year; joint demand forecasting; developing shared dynamic load-type curves using AI

Two improvement areas:

1. Strengthened forecast cooperation: develop shared methods, assumptions, and tools including scenarios (base/low/high) and automated database for common updated information
2. Clarify responsibility areas: ambiguities around capacity shortage, subtransmission (parallel flows between grid levels), and flexibility. The report notes that flexibility responsibilities await NC DR legislation before they can be formalized. An existing collaboration forum for kapacitetsåtgärd (capacity measures) in areas with consumption capacity shortage has been established.

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