Svk Kraftbalansen Höst 2025

Svenska kraftnät’s bi-annual power balance report to the Swedish government, covering adequacy for winter 2025/2026. Published autumn 2025.

Period covered: Winter 2025/2026 adequacy outlook

Key findings

Winter 2025/2026 adequacy outlook

The power balance for winter 2025/2026 is assessed as positive under normal conditions:

• Surplus of approximately 1,000 MW at normalvinter (average winter conditions)
• Tio-årsvinter (ten-year winter): about -200 MW; tjugoårsvinter (twenty-year winter): about -500 MW (Table 1) — so a colder winter creates an import need, though lower than in earlier years’ forecasts
• Last year’s forecast showed a 1,300 MW deficit; with the older, higher peak-load assumption (143 TWh annual consumption basis) the normalvinter balance would still be -1,300 MW
• The improvement comes mainly from a lower peak-load forecast (based on 133 TWh actual consumption, April 2024-April 2025) and +100 MW available production (new wind; Öresundsverket +400 MW). Installed wind rises ~1,400 MW and solar ~1,000 MW in 2025, but their low availability factors (wind 9 %) add little at peak
• Regional picture unchanged: large deficit in the south (SE3 about -5,200 MW, SE4 about -2,100 MW at normalvinter), surplus in the north
• The report also warns of an increased risk of power shortage in coming years

Strategic reserve — failed first procurement

The strategisk reserv (strategic reserve) is Sweden’s new national capacity mechanism, governed by Förordning (2025:835) om en kapacitetsmekanism för elmarknaden (decided by the government end of August 2025; this report cites the förordning, not Lag 2025:50). It replaces the old effektreserv, which ended 15 March 2025.

Key timeline:

• July 2025 — EU Commission granted state aid approval for the strategisk reserv
• Ahead of winter 2025/26 — Svk attempted to procure a reserve of up to 800 MW for 16 November 2025 - 15 March 2026 (the report is dated 15 October 2025)
• Six actors qualified (production and consumption-flexibility resources); three, all with production resources, submitted bids
• Result: procurement failed — all bids lay “betydligt över” (well above) the price cap; the procurement was cancelled with no award and no reserve was contracted for winter 2025/2026

Why procurement failed — the CONE price cap:

The price cap is set in the state aid decision: the average price of accepted bids may not exceed the CONE value (cost of new entry) used when setting the national reliability standard. That CONE relates to the reference technology “Efterfrågeflexibilitet hushållsuppvärmning” (household-heating demand flexibility), a technology Svk says has not been relevant for the strategic reserve and probably will not be in coming years.

The cap is lower than what the bidding resources can reasonably price at. The bidders were all production resources; Svk also notes that reserve resources need high availability and cannot be active in the electricity or balancing markets during the contract period, which limits interest. Svk fears the same outcome next winter unless the cap level changes.

Consequence: Sweden entered winter 2025/2026 without a contracted strategic reserve. Svk’s analysis shows the balance is positive for the coming winter even without a strategic reserve (1,000 MW surplus at normalvinter). Svk still sees a reserve as needed to meet the reliability norm (max 1 hour/year of shortage) and is working with Regeringskansliet and Ei on solutions, also looking at support for fossil-free flexibility or other capacity-remuneration measures.

Context: transition from effektreserv

The old effektreserv ended 15 March 2025; the strategisk reserv is described as replacing it. Karlshamnsverket, formerly part of the effektreserv, is assumed available; if it were unavailable the winter balance would be 600 MW lower (no unavailability notified).

Relevance to wiki

• Svenska kraftnät — updates capacity mechanism section; strategisk reserv / Förordning (2025:835) context
• Balancing Markets — strategic reserve as capacity adequacy backstop
• Bidding Areas — SE3/SE4 as focus of capacity risk
• Demand Response — CONE reference technology (household DR) and its mismatch with production-side bidders