Source - Svk Kraftbalansen Vår 2026
Svenska kraftnät’s bi-annual power balance report to the Swedish government, covering winter 2025/2026 outcome and summer 2026 / long-term adequacy outlook. Published 15 May 2026, submitted to Klimat- och näringslivsdepartementet per §13 Förordning (2025:782).
Bibliographic details
- Publisher: Svenska kraftnät
- Type: Government report (Kraftbalansen på den svenska elmarknaden)
- Date: 2026-05-15
- Submitted to: Klimat- och näringslivsdepartementet
- Legal basis: §13 Förordning (2025:782)
- Period covered: Winter 2025/2026 outcome; summer 2026 outlook; long-term adequacy to 2035
- Raw file:
raw/svk/kraftbalansen-pa-den-svenska-elmarknaden-rapport-var-2026.pdf
Key findings
Winter 2025/2026 outcome
Temperature: Colder than normal across Sweden; Norrland experienced one of the coldest winters in decades.
Storm Johannes: Caused outages in regional and local distribution grids. The transmission grid (stamnätet) was unaffected.
Peak load: 24,800 MWh/h on 12 January 2026 kl. 08–09, compared with 22,470 MWh/h the prior year.
Nuclear: 99% utilization at peak. Wind: only 18% utilization at peak (vs 63% prior year) — low wind during the cold snap was the key stress factor.
Power balance: Stable throughout. Sweden met demand through high nuclear output and Nordic interconnection. No supply shortfall.
Strategisk reserv — winter 2025/2026
The strategisk reserv was successfully contracted for the second attempt (winter 2025/2026):
- Volume: 350 MW
- Suppliers: Mälarenergi Kraftvärme + Sydkraft Termisk Kraft
- Active period: 15 January 2026 – 15 March 2026
- Activation: Not activated — market balance was sufficient throughout
- Availability: 100% throughout the active period
This is the first successful procurement of the strategisk reserv under Lag 2025:50. The reserve operated as designed and was not needed.
Prices — winter 2025/2026
Substantially higher than the prior winter across all zones:
| Zone | Winter 2025/2026 avg | Winter 2024/2025 avg |
|---|---|---|
| SE1 | 61 EUR/MWh | 17 EUR/MWh |
| SE2 | 61 EUR/MWh | 16 EUR/MWh |
| SE3 | 80 EUR/MWh | 57 EUR/MWh |
| SE4 | 90 EUR/MWh | 68 EUR/MWh |
Highest day-ahead price: 493 EUR/MWh (SE4, 19 February 2026)
Highest balancing energy price: 7,363 EUR/MWh (7 January 2026)
Svk made 11 manual mFRR price adjustments during the winter. The use of manual adjustments during extreme scarcity periods is flagged as a structural issue — the balancing market mechanism requires intervention when prices reach extreme levels.
Cross-border flows
Aurora Line (Fennoskan expansion to Finland) became fully operational. SE1–Finland export grew from 2.1 TWh to 4.9 TWh over the winter.
East–west flows (Norrland mountains) remain a binding constraint. Surplus hydro in western Norrland cannot be transferred efficiently to eastern consumption centers, restricting effective utilization of available generation.
Summer 2026 outlook
Positive balance. No import dependency anticipated. Svk does not flag specific adequacy risk periods for summer 2026. East–west flow constraints continue as the primary operational issue.
Long-term adequacy — ERAA 2025
The ERAA 2025 (European Resource Adequacy Assessment) shows Sweden’s LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) far exceeding the 1 hour/year adequacy norm:
| Year | LOLE (h/year) |
|---|---|
| 2028 | 6.5 |
| 2030 | 7.9 |
| 2033 | 10.3 |
| 2035 | 6.9 |
SE3 and SE4 face the greatest risk. SE1 and SE2 are less exposed due to surplus hydro, but inadequate transmission capacity limits their contribution to southern zones.
Demand-side flexibility is explicitly named as a key mitigation measure alongside new production capacity and grid investment. This is the first Svk government report to give demand flexibility a named role in the adequacy analysis rather than treating it solely as a market participant.
NRAA (National Resource Adequacy Assessment)
Sweden’s first NRAA (nationell resursanalys) is due at the end of 2026, under the Art. 19e–19f framework. The ERAA 2025 results set the baseline for what the NRAA will need to address.
Relevance to wiki
- Svenska kraftnät — winter 2025/2026 outcome; strategisk reserv first successful season
- Balancing Markets — strategic reserve outcome; mFRR manual adjustments; price extremes
- Bidding Areas — SE3/SE4 as primary adequacy risk zones; east–west constraint
- Demand Response — first explicit TSO naming of demand-side flexibility in adequacy analysis; ERAA 2025 data
- Flexibility Need Assessment — ERAA 2025 LOLE data is input to FNA process; NRAA end-2026
- Regulatory Calendar — NRAA end-2026 milestone
Data gaps
- Revised CONE methodology for subsequent strategisk reserv procurements — whether Svk or government has proposed a new reference technology
- NRAA 2026 content and publication — Sweden’s first national resource adequacy assessment (due end 2026)
- Whether Svk quantifies a specific demand-response contribution in the NRAA or leaves it qualitative