Source - FNA Webinar 7 (2026-03-16)

File: 260316-webinar-fna-nr-7.pdf Date: 2026-03-16 Organizer: Energiföretagen Sverige (Task force FNA DSO) Participants (presenters): Taskforce (Kraftringen Nät, Vattenfall Eldistribution, Göteborg Energi, Ellevio, E.ON Energidistribution); Svenska kraftnät (Martin Nilsson, Cecilia Fröderberg, Monika Topel, Maria Rydberg) Format: 62-slide webinar presentation, delivered the same day as the lokalnät data submission deadline

Summary

The seventh and final preparatory FNA webinar before the regionnät data delivery deadline (2026-04-07). Covers: why FNA exists and how it links to DNDP and NC DR; Svk’s ERAA 2025 scenarios; how to fill in the Tabell 15 reporting form; concrete calculation methods from E.ON Energidistribution and Ellevio; and the deferred items to FNA 2028. Substantial new content on the regulatory architecture linking FNA to the NC DR.

Key new information

1. NC DR Article 29.1 — the three-way FNA-DNDP-NC DR linkage

NC DR Art. 29.1 requires each system operator, at least every two years, to perform an assessment of the need for and procurement of DR/storage as alternatives to system expansion. This assessment:

• Must consider the national FNA report (Art. 19e(1) of Regulation 2019/943) → FNA is an input to the NC DR biennial assessment
• Is used to fulfill DNDP obligations under Directive Art. 32(3) and 51(3) → the NC DR assessment replaces or satisfies the DNDP flexibility analysis requirement
• Must be publicly consulted on

This creates a formal three-way integration:

FNA (ACER Decision 05-2025 / Art. 19e Reg. 2019/943)
    ↓ informs
NC DR Art. 29.1 biennial assessment
    ↓ fulfills
DNDP obligation (Directive Art. 32(3), 51(3))

2. NC DR Article 31.1 — flexible connection agreements = firm connections in needs assessment

NCDR Art. 31.1: Flexible connection agreements shall be treated as firm connection agreements when assessing the need for DR/storage/flexibility.

Implication: When a DSO calculates its FNA and DNDP flexibility needs, it cannot count its existing Villkorade Avtal as reducing the reported need. The villkorade avtal capacity must be treated as if it were firm capacity — meaning the full underlying grid constraint must be reported.

This is significant: it means the FNA will surface the true underlying flexibility needs, not a number artificially reduced by existing contractual coverage. The flexibility need exists regardless of whether a DSO has already contracted some of it. Exception: permanent solutions under Art. 6a.1.c. (Source - FNA Bilagor I-V (2025-2026), Villkorade Avtal)

3. CEER and ACER guidance on DNDP (July 2025)

ACER and CEER guidance (July 2025) specifies that DNDPs should contain sufficiently detailed assessments and descriptions of planned flexibility use. For each planned flexibility solution, the DNDP should specify at minimum:

• Direction (up/down)
• Expected area/location and voltage level
• Expected timing (as detailed as possible)
• Expected contractual arrangements (market-based vs flexible connection agreements)
• Alternative grid reinforcement if available, and cost-effectiveness analysis

4. NC DR expected to enter into force spring 2026

The webinar states: “Nya regler för efterfrågeflexibilitet… förväntas träda i kraft under våren 2026.” Given the webinar date (2026-03-16), this is effectively present-tense — the NC DR is expected imminently.

5. ERAA 2025 scenarios — Svk’s input to FNA system needs

Svk uses the ERAA 2025 (European Resource Adequacy Assessment, ENTSO-E) National Trends / Central Reference Scenario. Svk’s input data was based on KMA2024 and LMA2024.

Sweden installed generation capacity (ERAA 2025, MW):

Electricity demand (TWh):

ERAA2025 by bidding area (TWh, 2030/2035):

• SE1: 24.85 / 33.38
• SE2: 18.35 / 23.74
• SE3: 94.2 / 119.6
• SE4: 25.67 / 27.47

Note: batteries, electrolyzers, and DSR are reported separately in MW, not included in TWh totals.

Storage and DSR capacity (ERAA 2025, MW, national total):

DSR by bidding area (post-EVA adjustments):

• SE1: +300 MW 2030 → +1,090 MW 2035
• SE2: +210 MW 2030 → +920 MW 2035
• SE3: +2,970 MW 2030 → +5,240 MW 2035 ← largest share, as expected given SE3 population
• SE4: +680 MW 2030 → +1,220 MW 2035

These are the baseline DSR assumptions in Svk’s system-level FNA calculations — not targets, but scenarios.

6. E.ON’s method for calculating flexibility needs

E.ON presented their DSO-level calculation method as an example for other lokalnät:

Scope: medium voltage down to 40 kV; excludes low-voltage (0.4 kV / LSP).

Two binding constraints considered:

1. N-1 technical capacity — maximum load allowed on lines, transformers, cables while remaining N-1-safe
2. Subscription limit to overlying network (abonnemangsgräns) — the allocated capacity from the overlying regionnät or Svk

Method:

1. Baseline: historical load data (4 years), assessed for representativeness (cold/normal/warm year)
2. Forecast: projected customer growth (connections, EV charging, solar, societal plans) → simulated load profile at target year
3. Comparison: simulated load at target year vs planned capacity (N-1 capacity + planned investments)
4. Flexibility need = power that doesn’t fit within planned capacity

Example (2030):

7. Ellevio’s method

Ellevio’s method uses the same four inputs: load forecast, N-1 capacity, connection point capacity to overlying network for 2030, and for 2035. Flexibility need = area between load forecast and binding constraint line.

Example (multi-station network):

• Gränspunktsstation A: 5.0 + 1.1 = 6.1 MW flex need 2030
• Gränspunktsstation B: 7 MW flex need 2035
• Individual stations (C–G): 0–7 MW each depending on N-1 binding

Both E.ON and Ellevio emphasize that the subscription capacity indication from the overlying network (received 2026-01-20 from Svk, 2025-12-01 from regionnät) is the critical external input — without it, DSOs cannot assess their subscription-related flex need.

8. FNA data submission contacts (actual process)

Confirmed submission channels for lokalnät → regionnät:

• E.ON: FNA@eon.se
• Ellevio: natutvecklingsplaner@ellevio.se
• Vattenfall: flexibilityneedsassessment@vattenfall.com

Relevance to wiki

• NC DR Art. 29.1/31.1 — the FNA-DNDP-NC DR three-way relationship was not previously documented; Art. 31.1 (flexible connections = firm connections in needs assessment) has significant implications for Villkorade Avtal and Flexibility Need Assessment
• ERAA 2025 scenarios — first quantitative Svk projection numbers in the wiki for 2030/2035 generation capacity and DSR volume; noteworthy for SE3 dominating the DSR need (2,970 MW in 2030)
• E.ON and Ellevio methods — concrete operationalization of what “flexibility need” means; subscription limits and N-1 capacity are the two binding constraints DSOs actually compute against
• CEER/ACER DNDP guidance — confirms that future DNDPs must include contractual arrangement details and cost-effectiveness analysis — raising the bar for transparency