FlexSource - Svk Verksamhetsplan 2026-2028

Source - Svk Verksamhetsplan 2026-2028


Svenska kraftnät’s three-year operational and investment plan for 2026–2028, submitted to the government as an appropriations basis (budgetunderlag).

Bibliographic details

  • Title: Verksamhetsplan med investerings- och finansieringsplan 2026–2028
  • Publisher: Svenska kraftnät
  • Type: Government budget submission
  • Raw file: raw/svk/verksamhetsplan-2026-2028.pdf

Investment headline

56,800 MSEK (~57 billion SEK) in planned investments 2026–2028 — a major step-up in the already elevated investment program:

YearInvestment (MSEK)
2024 actual8,396
2025 plan~10,000
2026 plan15,400
2027 plan20,200
2028 plan21,200
2026–2028 total56,800

Total 2025–2030: ~125 billion SEK. Including 2031–2035: ~235 billion SEK. This represents a tripling of annual investment from 2024 to 2027–2028 and a historically unprecedented build rate for the Swedish transmission system.

Assets on balance sheet are projected to grow from 45 billion SEK (2024) to 161 billion SEK (2030). Fixed assets alone triple to ~150 billion SEK.

Major investment programs

NordSyd

NordSyd remains Svk’s flagship program and the dominant driver of investment. The north-south transmission reinforcement addresses the fundamental SE1–SE2–SE3 bottleneck — the most congested internal corridor in the Swedish grid. Four parallel branches are in various stages of permitting and construction.

Hansa PowerBridge — cancelled

Hansa PowerBridge — the planned 700 MW HVDC submarine cable between SE4 (Skåne, southern Sweden) and Germany — is no longer in the investment plan. The project had been under development for several years. Its cancellation reflects:

  • The political context around the EU nätpaketet (European grid package, COM/2025/1005) and Sweden’s objections to restrictions on how congestion revenues can be used and EU-level planning centralization
  • Cost-benefit reconsideration given that German-Swedish price convergence reduces the expected congestion revenue from this interconnector
  • Svk’s revised 2027–2029 investment plan (ordered by government Regeringsbeslut I:6, KN2026/01027) excludes three interconnector projects (Konti-Skan Connect, Aurora Line 2, Fenno-Skan 3); Hansa PowerBridge appears to have been dropped independently of this order

Regional grid reinforcements

Investments span all four bidding zones, driven by:

  • New industrial loads (steel, hydrogen, data centers)
  • Aging infrastructure replacement (many assets from the 1950s–70s)
  • Offshore wind connection (SE4)
  • Integration of large amounts of new solar and wind generation

Reactive power compensation

Svk contracted a large batch of shunt reactors in 2024, covering needs through 2032. Three STATCOMs have been installed in recent years. Continued reactive compensation investment is planned as power flows intensify.

Financing and cash flow

No loan needs through 2028

Svk holds a position at Riksgälden (Swedish National Debt Office) of approximately 52 billion SEK at end-2024 — accumulated from high congestion revenue inflows in 2022–2024 (when Swedish-German and Swedish-Continental price spreads were extreme). The expected congestion revenue inflow of ~14.5 billion SEK/year 2026–2028 means Svk can self-finance all planned investments through 2028 without new borrowing. Borrowing is expected to begin in 2030.

Congestion revenues — the key funding source

Total expected congestion revenue 2025–2030: 86 billion SEK (based on 35 historical weather year simulations):

YearExpected congestion revenue (MSEK)
2025~20,000
2026~17,000
2027~14,000
2028~11,000
2029–2030~11,000–12,000 each

The largest share comes from the SE2–SE3 border — the SE2/SE3 price spread generates more congestion revenue than any other border, reflecting the scale of the north-south bottleneck. Congestion revenues are projected to decline over the period as NordSyd investments reduce price spreads.

EU regulation (Reg. 2019/943) permits Svk to use congestion revenues for: network investments, countertrading/redispatching, and tariff reduction. Approximately 45 billion SEK will go to network investments; 32 billion SEK to tariff reduction.

Transmission tariff outlook

  • 2025–2026: transmission tariff unchanged at 1,680 MSEK effektavgift
  • 2027: approximately +20% increase (to ~2,010 MSEK)
  • 2028 and beyond: approximately +10%/year

The tariff increases are deferred by using congestion revenue to fund near-term costs. From 2029–2030, declining congestion revenues and rising depreciation costs from the investment surge will require tariff increases to sustain financing.

Balancing services — costs declining

Systemansvar (system operations) fees to BRPs are projected to decrease approximately 35% over 2026–2030. This reflects:

  • Declining ancillary service costs as battery-based FFR and FCR provides competitive pricing
  • Integration of Nordic markets (PICASSO, MARI connections 2027/2028) improving market efficiency

Civil defense and electricity preparedness

Civilplikt (civil duty)

A major new commitment: Svk is activating civilplikt (civil duty) within electricity supply, with a government mandate to train and assign 1,000 civil duty personnel by 2028. This creates a reserve workforce for electricity supply under heightened preparedness and war conditions.

Cost profile: ~33.6 MSEK (2025), rising to ~58.8 MSEK/year (2026–2028).

Robustness and ö-drift capability

Svk continues investing in:

  • Transformer protection
  • Mobile distribution stations
  • Cybersecurity training for industrial control systems
  • Regional ö-drift capability (local/regional grid segments operating independently)

Target: electricity supply must be able to resist, manage, and recover from disturbances, crises, and wartime conditions (robusthet, reparationsberedskap, ö-drift).

Business areas and financing structure

Svk operates through four business areas (verksamhetsgrenar):

AreaFinancingFunction
TransmissionsnätTariff (effektavgift + energiavgift)Grid ownership, development, operation
SystemansvarBRP/BSP feesSystem balance, reserve procurement
TelekomThird-party telecom rentalFiber communications network
ElberedskapGovernment appropriation (anslag 1:11)Civil preparedness authority

Relevance to wiki

Data gaps

  • Project-level breakdown of the 56,800 MSEK — which projects are prioritized within 2026, 2027, 2028
  • Status of Hansa PowerBridge — formal project cancellation decision vs. deferred