Svk Verksamhetsplan 2026-2028

Svenska kraftnät’s three-year operational and investment plan for 2026–2028, submitted to the government as an appropriations basis (budgetunderlag).

Title: Verksamhetsplan med investerings- och finansieringsplan 2026–2028 (government budget submission, ärende Svk 2025/166).

Investment headline

56,800 MSEK (~57 billion SEK) in planned investments 2026–2028 — a major step-up in the already elevated investment program:

Total 2025–2030: ~125 billion SEK. Including 2031–2035: ~235 billion SEK. This represents a doubling of annual investment expenditure by 2027–2028 compared with today’s level (the raw’s own word is “dubblering,” not tripling — 8,396 → ~20,200–21,200 MSEK is roughly 2.4–2.5×) and a historically unprecedented build rate for the Swedish transmission system.

Total assets on balance sheet (balansomslutning) are projected to grow from ~106 billion SEK (2024) to 161 billion SEK (2030) — not 45 billion; 45,326 MSEK is only the tangible/intangible fixed-assets line item (a subcomponent), not the balance-sheet total. Fixed assets alone triple (raw’s own framing) from 51,437 MSEK (2024) to ~159 billion SEK (2030).

Major investment programs

NordSyd

NordSyd remains Svk’s flagship program and the dominant driver of investment. The north-south transmission reinforcement addresses the fundamental SE1–SE2–SE3 bottleneck — the most congested internal corridor in the Swedish grid. Four parallel branches are in various stages of permitting and construction.

Hansa PowerBridge — cancelled

Hansa PowerBridge — the planned 700 MW HVDC submarine cable between SE4 (Skåne, southern Sweden) and Germany — is no longer in the investment plan. The project had been under development for several years. Note on sourcing: this raw document is dated 2025-02-19 and covers 2026–2028; it cannot itself explain the cancellation, since it still treats other, later-cancelled interconnector projects (e.g. Aurora Line 2) as active and ongoing. The rejection (government decision of 13 June 2024) and its stated reason are documented in Source - Hansa PowerBridge Avslag (Regeringen och Svk, 2024), and the May 2026 pause of three other interconnector projects in Source - Svk Utlandskablar Uppdrag Reviderad Investeringsplan (2026) — not in this raw document.

Regional grid reinforcements

Investments span all four bidding zones, driven by:

• New industrial loads (steel, hydrogen, data centers)
• Aging infrastructure replacement (many assets from the 1950s–70s)
• Offshore wind connection (SE4)
• Integration of large amounts of new solar and wind generation

Reactive power compensation

Removed (2026-09-23): this section previously stated Svk contracted a large batch of shunt reactors in 2024 (covering needs through 2032) and had installed three STATCOMs in recent years. Neither claim appears anywhere in the raw document — the raw’s only related mention is the unrelated Hallsberg dynamic shunt-compensation project switching its technology choice from a rotating synchronous condenser to a STATCOM. Removed as unsupported; re-add only if sourced.

Financing and cash flow

No loan needs through 2028

Svk holds a position at Riksgälden (Swedish National Debt Office) of approximately 52 billion SEK at end-2024 — accumulated from high congestion revenue inflows generally (the raw does not name specific years or border pairs for this accumulation). The expected congestion revenue inflow of ~14.5 billion SEK/year 2026–2028 means Svk can self-finance all planned investments through 2028 without new borrowing. Borrowing is expected to begin in 2030.

Congestion revenues — the key funding source

Total expected congestion revenue 2025–2030: 86 billion SEK (based on 35 historical weather year simulations):

The largest share comes from the SE2–SE3 border — the SE2/SE3 price spread generates more congestion revenue than any other border, reflecting the scale of the north-south bottleneck. Congestion revenues are projected to decline over the period — per the raw, mainly because forward electricity prices in continental Europe/UK are falling and electricity use in northern Sweden is rising (both narrow the price spread); the raw does not attribute the decline to NordSyd investments.

EU regulation (Reg. 2019/943) permits Svk to use congestion revenues for: network investments, countertrading/redispatching, and tariff reduction. Approximately 45 billion SEK will go to network investments; 32 billion SEK to tariff reduction.

Transmission tariff outlook

• 2025–2026: transmission tariff unchanged at 1,680 MSEK effektavgift
• 2027: approximately +20% increase (to ~2,010 MSEK)
• 2028 and beyond: approximately +10%/year

The tariff increases are deferred by using congestion revenue to fund near-term costs. From 2029–2030, declining congestion revenues and rising depreciation costs from the investment surge will require tariff increases to sustain financing.

Balancing services — costs declining

Systemansvar (system operations) fees to BRPs are projected to decrease approximately 35% over 2026–2030. This reflects:

• Declining ancillary service costs as battery-based FFR and FCR provides competitive pricing
• Integration of Nordic markets (PICASSO, MARI connections — the raw states Svk will connect to both platforms but gives no specific years here) improving market efficiency

Civil defense and electricity preparedness

Civilplikt (civil duty)

A major new commitment: Svk is activating civilplikt (civil duty) within electricity supply, with a government mandate to train and assign 1,000 civil duty personnel by 2028. This creates a reserve workforce for electricity supply under heightened preparedness and war conditions.

Cost profile: ~33.6 MSEK (2025), ~58.8 MSEK (2026), ~63.75 MSEK (2027), ~58.8 MSEK (2028) — not flat across 2026–2028, per the raw’s Tabell 3.

Robustness and ö-drift capability

Svk continues investing in:

• Transformer protection
• Mobile distribution stations
• Cybersecurity training for industrial control systems
• Regional ö-drift capability (local/regional grid segments operating independently)

Target: electricity supply must be able to resist, manage, and recover from disturbances, crises, and wartime conditions (robusthet, reparationsberedskap, ö-drift).

Business areas and financing structure

Svk operates through four business areas (verksamhetsgrenar):

Relevance to wiki

• Svenska kraftnät — investment scale, financing plan, civilplikt. The Hansa PowerBridge rejection (13 June 2024, reason: the German market’s lack of correct price signals and the risk of higher prices in southern Sweden) is sourced in Source - Hansa PowerBridge Avslag (Regeringen och Svk, 2024); the May 2026 pause of Konti-Skan Connect, Aurora Line 2 and Fenno-Skan 3 over nätpaketet is sourced in Source - Svk Utlandskablar Uppdrag Reviderad Investeringsplan (2026). Neither appears in this raw document, which predates them and still shows Aurora Line 2 as active
• NordSyd — investment confirmation and timeline
• Congestion Management — congestion revenues as primary funding source; SE2–SE3 as dominant border
• Balancing Markets — systemansvar cost outlook; declining balancing service fees
• Electric Power Transmission — scale of EU/Nordic grid investment
• Island Operation — ö-drift capability investments; mobile distribution stations