Svk Uppdrag 3.1 Leveranssäkert Elsystem (2026)

Svk 2026 — Planering för ett leveranssäkert elsystem (Uppdrag 3.1 in Svk’s regleringsbrev for 2026; ärende SVK 2026/3159, dated 2026-06-02). Svenska kraftnät’s report to Regeringskansliet (Klimat- och näringslivsdepartementet) on planning for a leveranssäkert elsystem that meets the reliability norm with and without a strategic reserve. Based on ERAA2025 analysis.

Assignment type: Uppdrag 3.1 in Svk’s regleringsbrev for 2026 (KN2025/02163, KN2025/02354 (delvis), KN2025/02410); due to Regeringskansliet by 5 June 2026

Ärende/date: SVK 2026/3159, 2026-06-02

Legal basis (as cited): Lag (2025:50) om finansiering av en kapacitetsmekanism för elmarknaden and förordning (2025:835) om en kapacitetsmekanism för elmarknaden (replacing Lag (2003:436) om effektreserv); ERAA; the Swedish national reliability norm (1 h LOLE)

Status: Report to government; no regulatory decision

Summary

The Swedish reliability norm is 1 hour per year. ERAA2025 (decided by ACER in April 2026) shows a LOLE of about 6 hours in southern Sweden for 2028 and a volume need of 750-1,100 MW to reach the norm. Svk notes the 2028 risk probably overstates the real risk for winter 2026/27, since electricity use in 2026 is expected to be lower than in the 2028 analysis year. Svk judges a strategic reserve of ca 350 MW procurable (same economic conditions as winter 2025/26, when 350 MW was contracted; such a reserve cuts LOLE from ca 6 to 3 h in ERAA2025), so the 750-1,100 MW need cannot be procured and the 1 h norm is not met on the ERAA calculation. In reality, plants worth just under 800 MW (Karlshamnsverket block 3 and Öresundsverket) are available but not in ERAA2025, and överbelastningshantering (ca 1,300 MW) is judged sufficient on its own to hold expected LOLE below 1 h in the short term, though its purpose is sudden disturbances and it is a last resort. Long term (to 2035) the ERAA risk rises: over 2,000 MW needed by 2035 at the 1 h norm (500-750 MW at a 3 h norm). Ei is reviewing the norm; a report is planned for autumn 2026.

Key quantitative findings

ERAA2025 capacity adequacy

The document does not state a “residual gap” figure. The 3 h norm and higher CONE are Svk’s own assumptions in a sensitivity analysis; no new norm has been proposed or decided. A government decision on a new norm would need to be taken by mid-September 2026 to underpin the 2026/27 procurement.

Production resources outside ERAA2025

Karlshamn + Öresundsverket = just under 800 MW (“knappt 800 MW”), the figure Svk uses. The Ryaverket/Tekniska verken contracts end 1 January 2027 and are excluded from the report’s summation, although Svk assumes ca 100+ MW may still be available in winter 2026/27. The 350 MW strategic reserve of winter 2025/26 consisted of Karlshamnsverket block 2 and Aros G4 Västerås.

Överbelastningshantering

• Volume: ca 1,300 MW contracted to end of 2029, plus just over 50 MW from earlier störningsreserv agreements (total 1,350 MW); roughly half owned by Svensk kraftreserv AB (Svk subsidiary), the rest by other producers. Replaces the former störningsreserven.
• Activation: year-round, no advance warning, short activation time; not in the ERAA data; used before manual förbrukningsfrånkoppling (MFK) as a last measure after market bids and any strategic reserve
• Purpose: handle sudden disturbances, overloads or critically low frequency and major production losses; not a substitute for a strategic reserve. With the ca 800 MW outside-ERAA plants counted, at most 300 MW would need activating to reach the 1,100 MW need.
• The 1,309 MW / 20 resources / 10 plants and 520 mnkr funding figures are not in this report (see Source - Ei Beslut Flaskhalsinkomster 2027 (2026)).

Long-term volume trajectory (Table 2)

2033 looks the harder year in ERAA2025; the 2033/2035 difference is partly due to more nuclear capacity assumed in 2035. Svk considers it difficult to increase strategic reserve volume significantly (few potential production bidders, weak interest in demand-reduction bids, reserve resources withheld from the market).

Key policy initiatives described

Ny strategisk reserv (Lag 2025:50)

Lag (2003:436) om effektreserv ceased to apply in 2025 and was replaced by Lag (2025:50) om finansiering av en kapacitetsmekanism and förordning (2025:835). A strategic reserve is the capacity mechanism in use. The autumn 2025 procurement for winter 2025/26 ended with no bids accepted (all above the maximum price tied to CONE); a renewed procurement contracted 350 MW for 15 January - 15 March 2026. Svk began preparing procurement for winter 2026/27 in spring 2026 and has held a supplier dialogue. The regulation also allows longer (2-5 year) strategic-reserve contracts, currently being examined.

Kapacitetsåtgärder

Svk and the DSOs developed a concept to procure temporary measures (production, storage, demand reduction) to connect actors before grid reinforcements are in place. In 2025 Svk and Vattenfall Eldistribution AB explored a pilot in Västra Götalandsregionen, which ended before procurement because industrial and connecting parties’ plans were postponed and Svk’s transmission capacity development can meet the need to 2035. Methods and tools developed are considered usable for future applications.

Stöd till icke-fossil flexibilitet

Under the EU electricity market regulation (EU) 2024/1747, member states are to set an indicative national target for non-fossil flexibility (including contributions from demand flexibility, storage and generation); the rules also allow financial support, possibly via auction procurement. Svk coordinates the flexibility needs analysis underpinning the target, to be included in an FNA report to the government, the Commission and ACER during 2026.

Tillgängliggörande av reservkraftverk

Many organisations have backup generators installed for operational continuity. These could in principle reduce load during acute shortage hours. Svk has not managed to obtain a realistic estimate of installed backup-generator volumes in Sweden. Aspects listed include grid-connected operation (many such sites are in Styrel and exempt from MFK), compensation, environmental/operating permits, diesel (not non-fossil unless HVO) and aggregation. The January 2026 US example (datacenters during winter storm Fern) is cited. Svk intends to examine whether there is realistic potential to justify a deeper study; no procurement.

Förbättrade lokaliseringssignaler

Svk has proposed an anvisningssystem (location guidance system) in the report Se över anslutningsprocessen till elsystemet och tillträdet till elmarknaden (Svk 2025/5008) to improve regional balance between over- and under-supply areas over time. Expected to contribute modestly to adequacy in deficit regions.

Samhällsekonomiskt effektiv MFK

Svk is exploring selective load reduction (e.g., heating systems only) rather than geographic area disconnection, which would reduce the welfare cost of load shedding when other measures are exhausted.

Ei reliability norm review

Ei has identified a need to update the calculation of, and if needed propose a new, national reliability norm; the work covers the norm and the CONE/VOLL parameters. The report is planned for delivery in autumn 2026; if Ei proposes a new norm the government then decides. Report due autumn 2026. A relaxation to ~3h norm would substantially reduce required strategic reserve volume and make the gap between need and procurable capacity more manageable.

Key claims

1. ERAA2025 shows ca 6h LOLE in southern Sweden for 2028, though Svk considers this likely overstates the risk for winter 2026/27.
2. ~350 MW is the assessed procurable volume under current norm/CONE parameters (ca 800 MW if a ~3 h norm and higher CONE were adopted).
3. Överbelastningshantering (ca 1,300 MW, 1,350 MW with störningsreserv) is already contracted to end-2029, as a last-resort tool for disturbances.
4. On the ERAA calculation the 1h norm is not met with a ~350 MW reserve — but Svk judges the short-term real position better, since ~800 MW of outside-ERAA plants exist and överbelastningshantering (~1,300 MW) suffices to keep risk under 1 h without a reserve (though purpose is disturbances). Longer term Svk sees more production as essential.
5. Non-fossil flexibility is explicitly named as an avenue, with EU-level support mechanisms available.
6. Fixed-price electricity contracts in neighboring countries are reducing demand elasticity and thereby the effective demand response contribution to adequacy — a named concern.
7. Kapacitetsåtgärder pilot ended without procurement; Svk judges the methods and tools may contribute to future needs (no way to assess which resources would have been competitive); the concept remains relevant.
8. Long-term production adequacy requires investment signals — energy-only market may be insufficient for high-capex, low-running-hour plants needed for peak adequacy.

Relevance to existing wiki topics

• Capacity Adequacy and Flexibility as the Missing Reserve — ERAA2025 LOLE numbers, strategic reserve framework, volume trajectory, and the full set of complementary measures.
• Svenska kraftnät — Kapacitetsåtgärder joint initiative, överbelastningshantering detail, ERAA2025 findings, FNA coordination role.
• Villkorade Avtal — Kapacitetsåtgärder as a related but distinct concept at transmission level.
• Flexibility Needs Assessment — Svk coordinates the Swedish FNA; non-fossil flexibility target.
• the regulatory timeline — Ei reliability norm review report, autumn 2026.