Source - Svk Uppdrag 3.1 Leveranssäkert Elsystem (2026)
Svk 2026 — Planering för ett leveranssäkert elsystem (Government assignment report 3.1, June 2026). Svenska kraftnät’s mandatory annual report to the government on Sweden’s capacity adequacy situation and the measures available to meet the reliability norm. Based on ERAA2025 analysis. Raw text: raw/svk/uppdrag-3.1-planering-extracted.txt.
Document metadata
- Publisher: Svenska kraftnät
- Assignment type: Government instruction (uppdrag) — published annually
- Published: June 2026
- Legal basis: Lag 2025:50 om strategisk reserv (replacing effektreservlagen); ERAA methodology (Art. 23 EMR); EU reliability norm 1h LOLE
- Status: Report to government; no regulatory decision
Summary
ERAA2025 shows Sweden’s expected LOLE reaching 6 hours in southern Sweden (SE3/SE4) in 2028 — far exceeding the EU norm of 1 hour. Closing the gap to the 1h norm would require 750–1,100 MW of strategisk reserv (strategic reserve), but only ~350 MW is considered realistically procurable from the market. Even supplemented by resources outside the ERAA model (decommissioned plants, overbelastningshantering), a significant adequacy gap persists into the early 2030s. Long-term the gap deepens: over 2,000 MW needed by 2035 under the 1h norm.
The document describes the new strategic reserve framework under Lag 2025:50, the ongoing überbelastningshantering (1,350 MW contracted until end-2029), and several complementary initiatives: kapacitetsåtgärder (joint Svk+DSO concept), stöd till icke-fossil flexibilitet under the Electricity Market Regulation, and a review of existing emergency reserve capacity. Ei is mandated to review the reliability norm itself — report due autumn 2026. A possible norm relaxation to ~3h LOLE would significantly reduce the volume gap.
Key quantitative findings
ERAA2025 capacity adequacy
| Area | 2028 LOLE (ERAA2025) | EU reliability norm |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Sweden (SE3/SE4) | ~6 hours | 1 hour |
| Northern Sweden | Within norm | 1 hour |
- Volume to achieve 1h norm: 750–1,100 MW strategisk reserv
- Procurable from strategisk reserv: ~350 MW (realistic market estimate)
- Residual gap to 1h norm: ~400–750 MW after strategic reserve
- Gap if norm relaxed to ~3h: ~800 MW possibly procurable (may close gap under revised norm if Ei’s review allows)
Production resources outside ERAA model
These plants were not captured in ERAA2025 but represent potential capacity:
| Plant | Capacity (MW) | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karlshamnsverket (oil) | 330 | Uniper | In care and maintenance |
| Öresundsverket (gas) | 448 | E.ON | Partly decommissioned |
| Ryaverket (gas/oil) | 300 | Göteborg Energi | Partly available |
| TVL mothandelsreserv | 45 | Tekniska verken | Short-term contract |
These ~1,100 MW are not planned for the strategic reserve but could contribute to adequacy in specific scenarios; contractual and operational limitations apply.
Överbelastningshantering
- Volume: 1,350 MW contracted (20 resources across 10 plants, of which 1,309 MW per the flaskhalsinkomster decision)
- Contract period: Until end of December 2029
- Activation: Real-time on Svk instruction; no prior notice required; dispatch outside normal market mechanisms
- Purpose: Bridge capacity shortfalls in southern Sweden until grid reinforcement is in place
- Funding: From flaskhalsinkomster (520 mnkr budgeted for 2027)
Long-term volume trajectory
| Year | Need (1h norm) | Need (3h norm — indicative) |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | 750–1,100 MW | ~350 MW |
| 2033 (peak) | ~1,500 MW | ~350–500 MW |
| 2035 | >2,000 MW | 500–750 MW |
Key policy initiatives described
Ny strategisk reserv (Lag 2025:50)
The old effektreservlag has been replaced by Lag 2025:50, which establishes the new strategisk reserv framework. Procurement rules, bidding, and activation details are being developed. First call expected when procurement is needed under the new framework.
Kapacitetsåtgärder
Svk and Vattenfall Eldistribution jointly developed a concept to bridge connection gaps via procured temporary flexibility (production, storage, demand reduction). Pilot in Västra Götalandsregionen was concluded before procurement was completed — industrial plans were delayed and Svk’s transmission expansion proved sufficient to 2035. Methods and tools developed are considered usable for future applications.
Stöd till icke-fossil flexibilitet
Art. from EU Electricity Market Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 requires member states to set a national target for non-fossil flexibility. Sweden’s contribution will be part of the FNA report to government, EC, and ACER in 2026. Svk coordinates the FNA work. Financial support mechanisms (auction-based procurement) are possible under the regulation.
Tillgängliggörande av reservkraftverk
Many organisations have backup generators installed for operational continuity. These could in principle reduce load during acute shortage hours. Svk is investigating feasibility (technical, environmental permits, compensation) — January 2026 US example (datacenter backup generators during storm Fern) is cited. No procurement has occurred; a feasibility study is underway.
Förbättrade lokaliseringssignaler
Svk has proposed an anvisningssystem (location guidance system) in a separate report (Svk 2025/5008) to improve regional balance between over- and under-supply areas over time. Expected to contribute modestly to adequacy in deficit regions.
Samhällsekonomiskt effektiv MFK
Svk is exploring selective load reduction (e.g., heating systems only) rather than geographic area disconnection, which would reduce the welfare cost of load shedding when other measures are exhausted.
Ei reliability norm review
Ei has been mandated to review whether Sweden’s 1h LOLE reliability norm remains appropriate given changed market conditions. Report due autumn 2026. A relaxation to ~3h norm would substantially reduce required strategic reserve volume and make the gap between need and procurable capacity more manageable.
Key claims
- ERAA2025 shows Sweden on course for 6h LOLE in 2028 in SE3/SE4 — the worst-case scenario now has quantitative support.
- ~350 MW is the realistic procurement ceiling for strategisk reserv under Lag 2025:50 in the near term.
- Överbelastningshantering (1,350 MW) is already contracted and provides an important bridge to 2029.
- The gap does not close without new production or a norm review — strategic reserve plus all existing mechanisms leaves a structural shortfall at the 1h norm.
- Non-fossil flexibility is explicitly named as an avenue, with EU-level support mechanisms available.
- Fixed-price electricity contracts in neighboring countries are reducing demand elasticity and thereby the effective demand response contribution to adequacy — a named concern.
- Kapacitetsåtgärder pilot showed methods are viable even though it concluded without procurement; the concept remains relevant.
- Long-term production adequacy requires investment signals — energy-only market may be insufficient for high-capex, low-running-hour plants needed for peak adequacy.
Relevance to existing wiki topics
- Capacity Adequacy and Flexibility as the Missing Reserve — ERAA2025 LOLE numbers, strategic reserve framework, volume trajectory, and the full set of complementary measures.
- Svenska kraftnät — Kapacitetsåtgärder joint initiative, överbelastningshantering detail, ERAA2025 findings, FNA coordination role.
- Villkorade Avtal — Kapacitetsåtgärder as a related but distinct concept at transmission level.
- Flexibility Needs Assessment — Svk coordinates the Swedish FNA; non-fossil flexibility target.
- Regulatory Calendar — Ei reliability norm review report, autumn 2026.