Svk Network Development Plan 2026-2035

Full title: Network Development Plan 2026–2035 (Nätutvecklingsplan, NUP)

Summary

Svenska kraftnät’s ten-year plan for the Swedish transmission grid. Describes the current state of the grid, drivers for expansion, planning methodology, scenario-based demand forecasts, and region-by-region investment plans. The document frames a massive scale-up of grid investment driven by electrification and the energy transition.

Key claims and data

Four motives for grid development

All transmission grid investments are categorized by motive:

Total planned investment 2025–2035: SEK 225 billion. A separate breakdown of the same 2025–2035 project population by decision-confidence phase (Table 3: under consideration 160B + preparation 125B + contracting 80B) sums to ~365 BSEK — this is the same projects viewed through a different lens (phase, not motive), not an extended scope including projects beyond 2035. Grid investments are increasing sharply from ~5,000 MSEK/year historically to potentially 25,000+ MSEK/year.

Physical scale

• ~2,900 km of new lines planned
• ~40 new substations
• Reinvestment of 1,100+ km of lines and ~100 substations

Connection queue

The queue of applications to connect to the transmission grid is enormous:

• >175 GW total applied for input (generation) 2020–2025
• Of which 124.7 GW offshore wind and 27.7 GW onshore wind
• Swedish peak load is only ~25 GW. The raw document itself compares the current (already-reduced) queue to peak load, stating it’s “more than twice as high” — the “7×” figure sometimes quoted elsewhere (dividing the cumulative 2020–2025 applied-for total, ~175 GW, by peak load) is this wiki’s own derived calculation, not a comparison the source document itself makes
• Svk notes most applications will not materialize, but the queue signals where demand is heading
• For output (consumption): dominated by industrial electrification, hydrogen, data centers

Demand scenarios (LMA2024)

Four long-term scenarios (LMA2024’s own names, 2050 horizon — not “Reference/Electrification/Hydrogen/Decentralized” at 2045, which was this page’s own mislabeling):

Current (2023): ~135 TWh. The document’s own prose separately gives a 2045 range of 200–343 TWh across scenarios (with the hydrogen-specific 2045 total stated as 350 TWh, of which 87 TWh is hydrogen production) — a different horizon year than the 2050 table above; the two shouldn’t be read as the same per-scenario figures. All scenarios project significant growth, driven by EVs, heat pumps, industrial electrification, data centers, and potentially hydrogen production.

Bidding areas and the north-south imbalance

Sweden is divided into four Bidding Areas (SE1–SE4). The fundamental structural challenge:

• SE1–SE2 (north): Large surplus — hydropower and growing wind generation far exceed consumption
• SE3–SE4 (south): Deficit — most consumption, historically supplemented by nuclear generation that has been reduced (specific reactor closures not named in this document — do not attribute a specific plant list to this source)
• Transmission capacity from north to south is the binding constraint, creating price differences between areas

NordSyd initiative

The NordSyd initiative is Svk’s flagship program to increase north-south transmission capacity. Four parallel branches:

1. Uppsala branch — new double 400 kV lines through Uppsala/Västmanland
2. Västerås branch — new lines and substations through Västmanland
3. Karlstad branch — Borgvik–Malsjö new 400 kV line through Värmland
4. Hallsberg branch — Storfinnforsen–Bäsna–Hallsberg new double 400 kV lines (inland route)

Timeline: progressively through 2030s. Some branches in contracting phase, others under consideration.

Flow-based capacity calculation

Sweden (and the Nordics) transitioned from NTC (net transfer capacity) to Flow-Based Capacity Calculation in October 2024. This method:

• Calculates available cross-zonal capacity based on actual physical power flows (Kirchhoff’s laws)
• Is more accurate than NTC, which simplified flows to bilateral exchanges
• Can both increase and decrease available capacity depending on flow patterns
• (Note: this document does not state a Central Western Europe/2015 precedent for flow-based capacity calculation — that claim is not sourced to this page.)

Conditional connection agreements at TSO level

Section 4.4.2 describes Svk’s exploration of conditional connection agreements — conceptually similar to Villkorade Avtal at DSO level. Svk commissioned a feasibility study and found that “managing full-scale implementation proved to be impossible with the systems and tools available today.” This highlights the digital infrastructure gap even at TSO level. Svk continues to study the approach.

Hydrogen co-planning

Hydrogen production is modeled as a major future electricity consumer (87 TWh in the Hydrogen scenario). Svk coordinates with hydrogen infrastructure planning, recognizing that co-locating hydrogen production with generation can reduce transmission grid needs. Hydrogen pipelines can partly substitute for electricity transmission.

HVDC interconnections

Sweden’s cross-border connections (existing and planned):

The rejected Germany interconnector (Hansa PowerBridge) is not named in this document; its termination is sourced elsewhere in the vault.

Civil preparedness

The plan notes increasing importance of total defense considerations. Grid investments must account for resilience, redundancy, and the ability to maintain supply during crises. This is a newer dimension of grid planning alongside the energy transition.

Flexibility relevance

This source is critical context for understanding why Flexibility is needed and how it relates to grid development:

1. Grid expansion is slow and expensive (SEK 225 billion over 10 years, projects take 10–15 years). Flexibility bridges the gap.
2. The connection queue vastly exceeds grid capacity — conditional connections and flexibility are the only way to accommodate demand faster than the grid can be built.
3. Svk itself tried and failed to implement conditional connections at TSO level due to digital infrastructure gaps — highlighting the importance of the software/digital layer.
4. The north-south bottleneck drives both massive infrastructure investment (NordSyd) and the need for flexibility to manage congestion until that infrastructure is built.
5. Hydrogen co-planning introduces a new flexibility dimension: locating flexible hydrogen production where generation exists rather than transmitting electricity.