Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 1 and 2 2025 (Feb-May)

Minutes and consolidated presentation materials for the first two Elmarknadsrådet meetings of 2025.

Documents

Meeting 1 — 12 February 2025

Attendance: Malin Stridh (chair), Linnea Achour (secretary), Anna Jäderström, Mårten Bergman (Svk); Magnus Thorstensson (Energiföretagen); Cecilia Thorsson (Varberg Energi, balansansvarig); Morgan Andersson (Bixia, producent); Per Wikström (Ellevio, elnätsföretag); Kristian Gustafsson (Vattenfall, producent); Susanne Franzén (Fortum, producent); Daniel Köbi (Jämtkraft elnät, elnätsföretag); Emma Tronarp Trawén (E.ON, balansansvarig); Michelle von Gyllenpalm (Svenskt Näringsliv); Paola Zetterberg (Ovako, elförbrukare); Lars Skoglund (Ntricity, leverantör av balanstjänster)

Note: Paola Zetterberg (Ovako) was welcomed as a new member. Four members received extended mandates: Per Wikström, Emma Tronarp Trawén, Susanne Franzén, Magnus Thorstensson.

Key claims

Regleringsbrev and government assignments:

• New reporting requirement on flowbased in Svk’s 2025 regleringsbrev; new assignment on system capability report (due February 28, 2026)
• Two new government assignments on intermittent production: (1) Energimyndigheten coordinates incentives for capacity contribution; (2) Svk coordinates regulatory framework and integration methods — both due end 2025
• Svk assignment on hydrogen and electricity co-planning infrastructure — delivery August 2025; no Swedish legal basis for hydrogen TSO yet; Nordion building pipelines in northern Norrland and interested in TSO role; Svk previously held gas system responsibility but not efficiently without owning network

Flowbased post-go-live review (October 2024 → February 2025):

• Higher DA prices after go-live were caused by low renewable production and high consumption — not by flowbased itself
• Intraday capacity to Norway (particularly SE3-NO1) has dropped significantly; most concerning single consequence
• Security margins (FRM) being updated late February 2025 — both increases and decreases in market capacity expected
• When mFRR EAM introduces automated balancing, the manual flexibility to free reserve capacity for real-time balancing will disappear; a structural problem if intraday capacity remains constrained

mFRR EAM — launch March 4, 2025:

• Launch date confirmed; Svk urged BRPs to be in balance and BSPs to submit bids in every elområde
• Historical pattern: large share of Nordic balancing was covered by Norway; with flowbased and mFRR EAM this must happen more locally
• aFRR ombud model announced: Svk stated existing ICCP-connected actors can act as proxy for new aFRR entrants — not cleared with industry in advance; industry concerned about incentives and complexity; Svk to call a meeting with ICCP holders

CNEC transparency:

• Montel analysts claim to have identified which network elements are binding in the flowbased calculation using public data; Svk classifies CNECs under Offentlighets- och sekretesslagen (OSL) — cannot prevent use of public data

Capacity mechanism consequence analysis:

• Sweden has Europe’s lowest LOLE reliability norm (1 hour/year); a less ambitious norm would change results significantly
• 365 TWh/year demand scenario from LMA; gas turbines appear even in renewables-heavy scenarios at 1–5% utilization (borderline investible)
• Flexibility sector pessimistic about achievable capacity; industrial users need revenue incentive for flexibility as it is not their primary business

Co-optimisation:

• Current market-based method limits capacity reserved for balancing to max 10% of interconnector capacity
• Svk to start feasibility study in spring 2025 on co-optimisation methodology with Nordic conditions

Meeting 2 — 7 May 2025

Attendance: Same core as Meeting 1 with minor substitution (Thorsten Handler from Jämtkraft in place of Daniel Köbi; Martin Nyqvist as E.ON substitute). Lars Skoglund (Ntricity) present.

Note: Ntricity went bankrupt shortly before this meeting — see below. Lars Skoglund remained as VD after the restructuring.

Key claims

Ntricity bankruptcy and restructuring:

• Ntricity was filed for insolvency ~early May 2025; a startup that could not agree on next-phase financing between former owners; bankruptcy enabled new owner to acquire it; Lars Skoglund remained as VD

Svk Elmarknad reorganization (February 1, 2025):

• New structure: four sections/units: Grossistmarknader, Balansmarknader, Nätnyttjande, Avräkning

mFRR EAM operational experience (March–May 2025):

• Vattenfall and Fortum: higher activation volumes than expected; higher control center workload; equipment wear that “is not sustainable in the long term”; IT solutions worked as expected
• Varberg Energi: not active as mFRR BSP at go-live, only as BRP; large manual effort to adapt to 15-min; communications from Svk focused on existing mFRR actors, not BRPs
• All three: unpredictable regulation patterns and obalanspriser; intraday illiquidity the central problem
• mFRR-spot spread increased ~4× — more bids on bid steps activated; more frequent bottlenecks; more expensive bids activated
• Market requests: faster price publication, forward bid volumes, ACE OL forecast published ahead of tradeable quarters, algorithm transparency
• Svk acknowledged it should have communicated about higher activations earlier — “first clearly communicated in autumn 2024”
• Morgan Andersson: proposal for coupling of capacity and energy market prices to prevent BSPs bidding on CM then pricing high on EAM

FFR 2025/2026 procurement:

• 244 MW contracted from 20 providers (up from 205 MW in prior year); Svk’s Nordic share ~105 MW (35%)
• Cost ~713.9 MSEK (vs 290 MSEK prior year) — reflecting dramatically higher FFR prices from BESS supply growth

BSP avtal — new version:

• Consultation open to May 23; new version planned September 2025
• Changes: (1) FCR procurement moved to Nordic MMS (Fifty platform); (2) new section on mFRR and abnormal frequency; (3) minor clarifications
• Note: only a BSP agreement on remiss, not BRP

GCT ID 30 minutes:

• EU regulation (CACM update 2024) requires 30-minute intraday gate closure by January 1, 2026
• Svk plans to apply for derogation; more time needed due to complexity of post-GCT processes and other concurrent changes
• Industry discussion: 30-min GCT could be introduced for intraday while keeping 45-min plan submission and mFRR bids

Bidding zone review result:

• Svk recommendation: maintain current SE1–SE4 structure
• Methodology limitations acknowledged: model can show a result but quantitative precision is limited; kraftsystemet is changing; continued analysis needed
• Council asked whether there will be consultation on Svk’s proposal; Mårten: no further consultation, but government will consult neighboring countries

15-minute DA:

• EPEX announced June 11 date “not sufficiently robust”; other TSOs and NEMOs stood firm
• (Actual go-live: September 30, 2025)

Transmission tariff redesign:

• New model fulfills Ei föreskrifter requirements; all DSOs must comply by 2027
• Four-component model including energy component with marginal loss coefficients by zone — more cost-reflective
• If changes are large, phased introduction considered

aFRR ombud / new entrants:

• Still unresolved; continued investigation needed; unclear if proxy model is workable
• Baltic Cable to be opened for intraday trade (only DA currently)

Operational situation:

• Oskarshamn 3 revision extended — all planned outages recalculated; summer overload management affected
• N-2 fault: both Fennoskan links (SE3-Finland) tripped simultaneously
• Test: Svk to increase intraday capacity allocation (ATCe) for 2 months to assess impact

Relevance to wiki

• Balancing Markets: mFRR EAM go-live operational experience; 4× spread increase; industry stress; aFRR ombud model; BSP avtal version update; GCT 30-min derogation
• Elmarknadsrådet: 2025 membership (Ntricity/Skoglund as BSP); Ntricity bankruptcy; Morgan Andersson active in early 2025
• Nordic Balancing Model: mFRR EAM go-live experience and spread data
• Bidding Areas: May 2025 bidding zone review result — Svk recommends SE1-SE4 maintained
• Svenska kraftnät: Elmarknad reorganization February 2025; co-planning assignment
• Regulatory Calendar: FFR 2025 procurement, mFRR EAM go-live March 4

Data gaps

• Text of the Svk system capability report (due February 2026) — which options for maintaining adequacy beyond grid investment were identified
• Outcome of the ICCP ombud meetings between Svk and ICCP-connected actors
• Outcome of co-optimisation feasibility study (started spring 2025)