Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 1 and 2 2025 (Feb-May)

Minutes and consolidated presentation materials for the first two Elmarknadsrådet meetings of 2025.

Documents

Meeting 1 — 12 February 2025

Attendance: Malin Stridh (chair), Linnea Achour (secretary), Anna Jäderström, Mårten Bergman (Svk); Magnus Thorstensson (Energiföretagen); Cecilia Thorsson (Varberg Energi, balansansvarig); Morgan Andersson (Bixia, producent); Per Wikström (Ellevio, elnätsföretag); Kristian Gustafsson (Vattenfall, producent); Susanne Franzén (Fortum, producent); Daniel Köbi (Jämtkraft elnät, elnätsföretag); Emma Tronarp Trawén (E.ON, balansansvarig); Michelle von Gyllenpalm (Svenskt Näringsliv); Paola Zetterberg (Ovako, elförbrukare); Lars Skoglund (Ntricity, leverantör av balanstjänster)

Note: Paola Zetterberg (Ovako) was welcomed as a new member. Four members received extended mandates: Per Wikström, Emma Tronarp Trawén, Susanne Franzén, Magnus Thorstensson.

Key claims

Regleringsbrev and government assignments:

• New reporting requirement on flowbased in Svk’s 2025 regleringsbrev; new assignment on system capability report (due February 28, 2026)
• Two new government assignments on intermittent production: (1) Energimyndigheten coordinates incentives for capacity contribution; (2) Svk coordinates regulatory framework and integration methods — both due end 2025
• Svk assignment on hydrogen and electricity co-planning infrastructure — delivery August 2025; no Swedish legal basis for hydrogen TSO yet; Nordion building pipelines in northern Norrland and interested in TSO role; Svk previously held gas system responsibility but not efficiently without owning network

Flowbased post-go-live review (October 2024 → February 2025):

• Higher DA prices after go-live were caused by low renewable production and high consumption — not by flowbased itself
• Intraday capacity to Norway (particularly SE3-NO1) has dropped significantly; most concerning single consequence
• Security margins (FRM) being updated late February 2025 — both increases and decreases in market capacity expected
• When mFRR EAM introduces automated balancing, the manual flexibility to free reserve capacity for real-time balancing will disappear; a structural problem if intraday capacity remains constrained

mFRR EAM — launch March 4, 2025:

• Launch date confirmed; Svk urged BRPs to be in balance and BSPs to submit bids on both the capacity and energy-activation markets, including divisible/small bid volumes (the minutes do not say “every elområde”)
• Historical pattern: large share of Nordic balancing was covered by Norway; with flowbased and mFRR EAM this must happen more locally
• aFRR ombud model announced: Svk had not said proxy connection is possible — only that it is up to actors with existing ICCP connections to decide (per the minutes) — not cleared with industry in advance; industry concerned about incentives and complexity; the council wants a meeting with ICCP holders; Anna will revert

CNEC transparency:

• Montel analysts claim to have identified which network elements are binding in the flowbased calculation using public data; Svk classifies CNECs under Offentlighets- och sekretesslagen (OSL) — cannot prevent use of public data

Capacity mechanism consequence analysis:

• A council member commented that Sweden has Europe’s lowest LOLE reliability norm (1 hour/year; a comment in the minutes, not a Svk finding); a less ambitious norm would change results significantly
• 365 TWh/year demand scenario from LMA; gas turbines appear even in renewables-heavy scenarios at 1–5% utilization (borderline investible)
• Flexibility sector pessimistic about achievable capacity; industrial users need revenue incentive for flexibility as it is not their primary business

Co-optimisation:

• Current market-based method limits capacity reserved for balancing to max 10% of interconnector capacity
• Svk to start feasibility study in spring 2025 on co-optimisation methodology with Nordic conditions

Meeting 2 — 7 May 2025

Attendance: Same core as Meeting 1 with minor substitution (Thorsten Handler from Jämtkraft in place of Daniel Köbi; Martin Nyqvist as E.ON substitute). Lars Skoglund (Ntricity) present.

Note: Ntricity went bankrupt shortly before this meeting — see below. Lars Skoglund remained as VD after the restructuring.

Key claims

Ntricity bankruptcy and restructuring:

• Ntricity was filed for insolvency (“a couple of weeks” before the 7 May meeting, i.e. mid-to-late April); a startup whose former owners could not agree on the next step for growth; bankruptcy enabled new owner to acquire it; Lars Skoglund remained as VD

Svk Elmarknad reorganization (February 1, 2025):

• New structure: four sections/units: Grossistmarknader, Balansmarknader, Nätnyttjande, Avräkning

mFRR EAM operational experience (March–May 2025):

• Vattenfall and Fortum: higher activation volumes than expected; higher control center workload; equipment wear that “is not sustainable in the long term”; IT solutions worked as expected
• Varberg Energi: not active as mFRR BSP at go-live, only as BRP; large manual effort to adapt to 15-min; communications from Svk focused on existing mFRR actors, not BRPs
• All three: unpredictable regulation patterns and obalanspriser; intraday illiquidity the central problem
• mFRR-spot spread increased (the minutes give no factor; a market-participant slide says imbalance-vs-spot spread rose “upp emot 400%”, i.e. up to 400%, not a Svk figure) — more bids on bid steps activated; more frequent bottlenecks; more expensive bids activated
• Market requests: faster price publication, forward bid volumes, ACE OL forecast published ahead of tradeable quarters, algorithm transparency
• Council criticism (in the 12 Feb minutes, not 7 May): communication that mFRR EAM means more activations was perceived as very late, first clearly communicated in autumn 2024 (translated, not verbatim). On 7 May Anna acknowledged communication had focused on BSPs and IT and should have included other actors; Kristian said Svk should have communicated earlier about prices
• Morgan Andersson: proposal for coupling of capacity and energy market prices to prevent BSPs bidding on CM then pricing high on EAM

FFR 2025/2026 procurement:

• 244 MW contracted from 20 providers (up from 205 MW in prior year); Svk’s Nordic share ~105 MW (35%)
• FFR chart (7 May slide 8, “Ökad likviditet”; read from the slide image, confirmed 2026-09-20): offered volume 713.9 MW for 2025 (290 MW in 2024, 170 in 2023, 151 in 2022, 110 in 2021, 70 in 2020) vs awarded volume 244.4 MW in 2025 (205 in 2024, 150 in 2023, 146 in 2022, 110 in 2021, 70 in 2020). Cost of the completed contract period (MSEK): 14 (2020), 70 (2021), 57.4 (2022), 16 (2023), 10.4 (2024); no cost yet for 2025 since that period had not ended. So 713.9 is a bid volume in MW, not a cost, and FFR cost has fallen since 2021. (The earlier “713.9 vs 290 MSEK” reading was wrong; the causal gloss about BESS-driven “dramatically higher FFR prices” was unsupported — the slide says increased liquidity, with capacity mainly from batteries/storage.)

BSP avtal — new version:

• Consultation open to May 23; new version planned September 2025
• Changes: (1) FCR procurement moved to Nordic MMS (Fifty platform); (2) new section on mFRR and abnormal frequency; (3) minor clarifications
• Note: only a BSP agreement on remiss, not BRP

GCT ID 30 minutes:

• EU regulation (CACM update 2024) requires 30-minute intraday gate closure by January 1, 2026
• Svk plans to apply for derogation; more time needed due to complexity of post-GCT processes and other concurrent changes
• Industry discussion: 30-min GCT could be introduced for intraday while keeping 45-min plan submission and mFRR bids

Bidding zone review result:

• Svk recommendation: maintain current SE1–SE4 structure
• Methodology limitations acknowledged: the model cannot include every detail but gives an indication and a qualitative assessment; kraftsystemet is changing; continued analysis needed (the slides add that all four alternatives give lower socioeconomic benefit)
• (The consultation exchange — no further Svk consultation, government will consult neighbouring countries — is in the 12 Feb minutes, where the review was still to be presented in Q1; it does not appear in 7 May.)

15-minute DA:

• EPEX announced June 11 date “not sufficiently robust”; other TSOs and NEMOs stood firm

Transmission tariff redesign:

• New model fulfills Ei föreskrifter requirements; all DSOs must comply by 2027
• Four-component model including an energy component that weights losses with a fördelningsfaktor (slides: “implicita förluster”); Svk submitted a dispensation application for a fifth component, abonnemangsavgift, so the model does not fit entirely within Ei’s components; the reference group preferred the fördelningsfaktor and Martin argued for net losses against congestion income
• If changes are large, phased introduction considered

aFRR ombud / new entrants:

• Still unresolved; continued investigation needed; unclear if proxy model is workable
• Baltic Cable to be opened for intraday trade (only DA currently)

Operational situation:

• Oskarshamn 3 revision extended — all planned outages recalculated; transfer capacities are affected by lost production in southern Sweden (a northern Norway fault also affected the whole Nordic system)
• N-2 fault: both Fennoskan links (SE3-Finland) tripped simultaneously
• Test: Svk to increase intraday capacity allocation (ATCe) for 2 months to assess impact

Relevance to wiki

• Balancing Markets: mFRR EAM go-live operational experience; spread increase; industry stress; aFRR ombud model; BSP avtal version update; GCT 30-min derogation
• Elmarknadsrådet: 2025 membership (Ntricity/Skoglund as BSP); Ntricity bankruptcy; Morgan Andersson active in early 2025
• Nordic Balancing Model: mFRR EAM go-live experience and spread data
• Bidding Areas: May 2025 bidding zone review result — Svk recommends SE1-SE4 maintained
• Svenska kraftnät: Elmarknad reorganization February 2025; co-planning assignment
• the regulatory timeline: FFR 2025 procurement, mFRR EAM go-live March 4

Data gaps

• Text of the Svk system capability report (due February 2026) — which options for maintaining adequacy beyond grid investment were identified
• Outcome of co-optimisation feasibility study (started spring 2025)