Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 3 and 4 2025 (Sep-Nov)

Minutes and consolidated presentation materials for the third and fourth Elmarknadsrådet meetings of 2025.

Documents

Meeting 3 — 24 September 2025

Location: Ovako, Olof Hjorts väg 2, Hofors (study visit) — shortened session 10:15–12:15; afternoon: tour of Ovako’s steel plant

Attendance: Malin Stridh (chair), Linnea Achour (secretary), Anna Jäderström, Staffan Engström (replacing Mårten Bergman) (Svk); Magnus Thorstensson (Energiföretagen); Michelle von Gyllenpalm (Svenskt Näringsliv); Cecilia Thorsson (Varberg Energi); Per Wikström (Ellevio); Thorsten Handler (Jämtkraft elnät); Susanne Franzén (Fortum); Anders Larsson (Bixia, producent — replacing Morgan Andersson); Paola Zetterberg (Ovako); Lars Skoglund (Ntricity)

Absences: Emma Tronarp Trawén (E.ON), Kristian Gustafsson (Vattenfall)

Note: Anders Larsson (Bixia) replaced Morgan Andersson for the remainder of the mandate period.

Key claims

Member renewal:

• Several mandates expiring end of 2025; new nominations open until November 20, 2025
• Nominations via Energiföretagen (DSOs, BRPs, suppliers, producers), Svenskt Näringsliv (large users), and open nomination for BSP seats (direct to Svk)
• Decision on new members before Christmas; new period begins February 1, 2026

Svk new instruction (June 2025):

• Svk received a new instruction (instruktion) in June 2025; broader mandate than before
• Three major changes: (1) “samhällsbyggarperspektiv” — broader societal enabler role beyond grid; (2) expanded delivery security concept — wider than Svk’s previous internal definition; (3) new planning coordination mandate — Svk to coordinate planning and clarify where needs are in the electricity system
• Also new: explicit requirement to balance national interests against EU internal electricity market — Svk working out how to weight these against each other

DHV government assignment (received September 2025):

• Joint assignment to Svk and Energimarknadsinspektionen (Ei)
• Ei leads and coordinates; Svk co-author — Svk views this very positively because the previous Svk-only mandate for elmarknadshubb failed due to unclear regulatory authority
• Scope: (1) which functions the tool should have; (2) which information it should cover; (3) which actors should access which parts; (4) cost and timeline; (5) ownership, governance, financing; (6) risks and risk mitigation
• Tool purpose: efficient and secure data exchange between market actors; support statistics/analysis for planning and policy; enable EU and national legislation implementation; increase flexibility and efficient grid use

Strategisk reserv (autumn 2025):

• EU Commission state aid approval: summer 2025
• Förordning 2025:835 entered force: October 1, 2025
• First procurement underway: target 800 MW for period November 2025–March 2026; one-year and multi-year contracts possible (multi-year must be fossil-free); min bid 1 MW; production bids >300 MW subject to financing deficit test (no overcompensation); demand resources must show historical capacity additionality
• Balansansvarsavtalet amendments: name change effektreserv → strategisk reserv; SE3/SE4 levy only

MARI/PICASSO timelines:

• Updated timelines to be communicated October–November 2025
• Nordic TSOs want a stabilization period after mFRR EAM before connecting to European platforms; have seen extreme prices in other countries after PICASSO connection
• Denmark already activates both mFRR and aFRR via Nordic platforms/PICASSO (for aFRR)

mFRR EAM continued improvements:

• Algorithm improvements ongoing through autumn 2025
• Tolerance band introduced to avoid small-margin price spikes
• Manual price corrections common through mid-2025; “ologisk prisspridning” (illogical price spread) fix in progress
• mFRR CM volume review underway — whether to reduce demand to stabilize prices
• Svk market surveillance of mFRR EAM: all actors expected to bid responsibly

Roadmap timeline (as of September 2025 presentation):

• MARI: March 31, 2027 — shown explicitly in roadmap slide
• Flowbased intraday auctions: Q3 2027
• FFR D-1 market: concept under development; IT platform before market

Balancing capacity allocation improvement:

• Nordic TSOs beginning work on improving the market-based capacity allocation method for balancing timeframe (not co-optimisation — that is a separate, longer-horizon project)

Meeting 4 — 19 November 2025

Attendance: Full council; Lars Skoglund (Ntricity) present.

Agenda: 12 items — Svk’s most detailed Elmarknadsråd of 2025.

Key claims

Standard tariff/fee announcement for 2026:

mFRR CM costs: 30% via balansansvarsavgift; aFRR CM costs: 100% via balansansvarsavgift.

Transmission tariff 2026:

• Effektavgift: unchanged as collective — but reduced ~80% from cost-reflective level via flaskhalsinkomster; Svk signalled in August/September that the tariff will need to be stepped up to reflect actual costs
• Energy component marginal loss coefficients: +5% for 2026 (reflecting changed flow patterns); risk premium for imbalance risk and physical electricity trading unchanged at 15 SEK/MWh
• Prior decision: 80% rebate on 2024 energy component debited amounts (temporary for 2026)

Dispens application rejected — 4-component tariff model:

• Svk had applied for dispens to Ei to introduce an abonnemangsavgift (subscription fee) as a fifth component in the transmission tariff model
• Ei rejected the application October 24, 2025
• Svk will instead incorporate the subscription fee elements into the existing fast avgift (fixed fee) → 4-component model (not 5): kundspecifik avgift, energiavgift, effektavgift, fast avgift
• Remiss responses received; timeline planning ahead

MARI timeline announced:

• Nordic TSOs jointly announced the MARI connection timeline on Monday November 17, 2025
• Target: Q1 2027 (Nordic as a group); will be confirmed at further milestones as remaining development and impact analysis are completed
• Critical precondition: both technical and market conditions must be in place; Svk does not want to connect before market is functioning well

PICASSO:

• Denmark and Finland already connected; Sweden will connect as a national connection (not a joint Nordic step, since Nordic partners are already live)
• Swedish timeline to be communicated later in 2025/early 2026

Elområdesanalys:

• Three alternatives under analysis: (1) Sverige as one zone; (2) two zones (current Snitt 2 maintained); (3) Svk’s multi-zone variant (similar to ACER Config 11 from EU-wide review, but not identical)
• Also: “særskilda elområden för export” concept
• Focus year: 2035 (also: 2030, 2040)
• Delivery: May 29, 2026 → government; survey to financial market actors Q1 2026; stakeholder meeting held November 5, 2025
• Not a formal EU review — no recommendation to change or maintain; that requires a separate Art. 14.7 structural congestion report

DHV (Datahanteringsverktyg) — detailed scope:

• Joint Ei/Svk assignment; Ei coordination lead; contact: Johan Carlsson (Ei), Peter Petersson (Svk)
• Goals: efficient and secure data exchange; statistics for planning, instruments and target follow-up; enable EU/national legislation; increase flexibility and efficient grid use; security/total-defence dimension
• DSO concern raised by Per Wikström: EU rules focus on external data flows, risking reducing DSOs to administrative interfaces only; NC DR (“flex-koden”) is a “white space” with unclear responsibilities and a need to protect internal DSO processes — Robert Thelander acknowledged not directly in scope but that TSO-DSO interface discussions will be part of the work

mFRR EAM — improvements and price cap:

• Algorithm improvements: new algorithm avoids small volumes at margin driving extreme prices; tolerance band (slightly larger but cheaper activations); “ologisk prisspridning” fixed (implementation end November 2025, confirmed working December 8, 2025)
• Svk conducting market surveillance; expects all actors to bid responsibly; no market-maker with pricing power on mFRR EAM
• mFRR price cap consultation: Svk explored and published a discussion document on two alternatives:
  • Alternative A: cap mFRR EAM bids at ±5,000 EUR/MWh (the old reglerkraftmarknad cap level)
  • Alternative B: cap the BRP obalanspris (imbalance price) while keeping EAM bid cap unchanged
  • Rationale: ±5,000 EUR/MWh was the previous market standard; Svk explicitly not evaluating the level itself
  • Svk needs dialogue with Ei before proceeding; also needs to assess cross-TSO implications
  • Industry perspectives: effektavgifter may affect price levels; capping is addressing a symptom when root cause is intraday illiquidity; A: reduces consumer risk; B: retains full market signal
  • mFRR CM demand review also underway to assess whether current demand levels are contributing to price spikes

15-minute DA — post-launch experience:

• Go-live: September 30, 2025 — entire European DA market moved simultaneously
• Sweden reached ~80% of DA trades on 15-MTU from the first day
• “Duck curve” (sawtooth pattern) visible in DA prices — effect of mixed 60-min and 15-min trading
• DA SEC (security constraint) flows were calculated incorrectly for a period (missing flow coefficients causing random allocation) — no material market impact; corrected
• Next step: 30-minute intraday gate closure

Flowbased — 1-year review:

• Increased aggregate interconnector use; SE4 better connected with the continent
• SE1/SE2 prices remain structurally low due to production surplus
• Flowbased intraday auctions: Q3 2027 go-live planned; will introduce dedicated FB domains for intraday
• Countertrading concept for intraday auctions under development — would allow Svk to manage congestion at intraday stage, reducing pressure on balancing market and mFRR demand
• Aurora Line: now fully traded on many days; +500 MW capacity increase SE1-Finland
• Intraday: only 3 auctions currently (2 with low forecast precision); industry asking for hourly auctions

Strategisk reserv — first procurement failure:

• First procurement closed October 2025: 713 MW total bids received (target 800 MW); none cost-effective under Svk’s interpretation of CONE methodology
• Svk reviewing: (1) interpretation space in methodology (CONE-based cap vs cost-effectiveness assessment per MW); (2) option to procure smaller volumes
• Winter 2025/2026 balance: positive margin; Sweden can manage without strategic reserve in normal winter
• Long-term: risk of capacity shortfall increasing; strategic reserve remains primary tool

Driftläge — pre-winter:

• Forsmark 1 unavailable until December 6, 2025 (then all nuclear available)
• Estlink 2 restored June 2025 after suspected sabotage; full capacity for winter
• SE4: excellent interconnections (Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Denmark) — few bottlenecks
• Aurora Line: historically FI was export-heavy; now with new Finnish nuclear (Olkiluoto 3) and variable production, flows more dynamic; could enable more northward flows in Sweden

Art. 182 — DSO visibility gap:

• Per Wikström (Ellevio) raised that DSOs currently cannot see which actors are delivering ancillary services in their network
• Svk confirmed this information will become available through Art. 182 agreements; asked to communicate the change more broadly and ensure all actors — not just DSOs — receive the same information in time
• Anna clarified that one purpose of the Art. 182 agreements is to ensure Svk has the ability to stop deliveries that would cause network problems

aFRR ombud — resolution:

• Rather than relying on market actors volunteering as proxy, Svk decided to procure an external ombud to forward bids from new aFRR entrants into the existing aFRR market
• This avoids the need for new entrants to establish their own ICCP technical communication

Miscellaneous:

• Svk Division System reorganization (internal): goal of better conditions for actor dialogue; no change to external interfaces
• New 2026 meeting dates announced: February 4, May 20, September 30, November 18

Relevance to wiki

• Balancing Markets: mFRR EAM autumn 2025 improvements; “ologisk prisspridning” fix; price cap consultation (two alternatives); aFRR ombud resolution; 15-min DA go-live; flowbased intraday Q3 2027; countertrading concept; strategisk reserv first failure
• Nordic Balancing Model: MARI Q1 2027 announced November 17, 2025; PICASSO national connection
• Elmarknadsrådet: 2025 membership; Ntricity/Skoglund; Anders Larsson replacing Morgan Andersson; member renewal November 2025
• Svenska kraftnät: new instruction June 2025 (samhällsbyggare, expanded delivery security, planning coordination); Elmarknad reorganization
• Elmarknadshubb: DHV government assignment (Ei lead, Svk co-author), September 2025
• Bidding Areas: Elområdesanalys three alternatives confirmed; delivery May 2026
• TSO-DSO Coordination — The Central Design Problem: Art. 182 DSO visibility gap raised; Svk confirms Art. 182 agreements will address it
• Strategisk Reserv: first procurement failure details; CONE methodology interpretation; 713 MW received, none accepted
• Regulatory Calendar: multiple 2025 milestones

Data gaps

• Outcome of mFRR price cap consultation — did Svk proceed with either alternative after Ei dialogue?
• PICASSO Swedish connection timeline — announced “later in 2025/early 2026” but no date given in this meeting
• Result of mFRR CM demand volume review — was demand reduced?
• Outcome of Svk’s new transmission tariff 4-component model remiss — final design