Source - FlexAbility Delrapport 1 (2025)
Type: Research report — Sub-report 1 of 5 (PDF, 62 pages)
Title: Flexibilitetsresurser, potential och behov år 2030
Project: FlexAbility
Publisher: Power Circle (in collaboration with Plexigrid, Ellevio, Uppsala University)
Date: October 2025
Funded by: Energimyndigheten (programme: Framtidens elsystem)
Language: Swedish
Project period: 2023–2025
Raw file: raw/flexability-delrapport-1-extracted.txt
Project website: www.powercircle.org/flexability
Summary
The first of five sub-reports from the FlexAbility research project. Covers: (1) a four-category taxonomy of flexibility needs, (2) quantified flexibility needs in Sweden to 2030 at system and local levels, (3) technical flexibility potentials by 2030 for 14 resource types across five timescales, and (4) a marginal-cost supply curve for up- and downward regulation. Based on a 60-actor interview study (2024), statistical analysis, and a companion student thesis (Haeffler 2025, Lund University) on economic potentials.
The project consortium: Power Circle (Elham Kalhori, Johanna Lakso, Isak Vencu Öhrlund, Anna Wolf); Uppsala University (Cajsa Bartusch Kätting, Arvid Nyman); Plexigrid (Linda-Maria Wadman); Ellevio (Albin Karlén). Reference group: Flower, CheckWatt, NODES, Ngenic, ReCharge, Svenska kraftnät, Green Power Sweden, Kraftringen, Mine Storage, Jämtkraft Elnät.
Flexibility taxonomy: four categories
The report defines flexibility as: “Förmågan att anpassa och styra sin eleffekt över tid” (the ability to adapt and control one’s electric power over time), and introduces a four-category framework extending the Swedish government’s 2023 three-category framework (Ei R2023:18):
| Category | Purpose | Timescale |
|---|---|---|
| Flexibilitet för energi | Balance production/consumption over longer horizons | Hours → seasons |
| Flexibilitet för balansering | Real-time frequency regulation, fast reserves | Seconds → hour |
| Flexibilitet för överföring | Network congestion relief, voltage quality | Minutes → hours |
| Flexibilitet för beredskap (new) | Emergency resilience: islanding, black start, crisis operation | Crisis conditions |
These map onto the four components of “trygg elförsörjning” (secure electricity supply) from Elmarknadsutredningen (SOU 2025:47): resurstillräcklighet, driftsäkerhet, nyanslutning, energiberedskap.
The addition of beredskap reflects growing total defence and security framing in Swedish energy policy (same context as FRA/Försvarsmakten/SÄPO in Source - Uppdrag Centralt Datahanteringsverktyg (2025)).
Quantified flexibility needs to 2030
System-level flexibility needs (from Ei R2023:18, government assignment):
| 2023/24 | 2030/31 | |
|---|---|---|
| Downward regulation (daily) | 2,500 MWh/h | 3,400 MWh/h |
| Upward regulation (daily) | 3,500 MWh/h | 4,000 MWh/h |
| Downward regulation (weekly) | 1,500 MWh/h | 3,800 MWh/h |
| Upward regulation (weekly) | 2,000 MWh/h | 3,100 MWh/h |
Balancing market volume needs (Svk, Balancing Market Outlook 2030):
| Product | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| FCR-D up & down | 542 MW | 542 MW |
| FCR-N | 224 MW | 224 MW |
| aFRR up & down | 150 MW (120–200) | 300 MW (160–400) |
| mFRR up | 800 MW (580–1,300) | 1,400 MW (1,100–1,850) |
| mFRR down | 990 MW (920–1,050) | 1,150 MW (950–1,400) |
| FFR | ≤105 MW | 1–48 GWh (by 2035) |
Local DSO flexibility needs (aggregated from DNDPs, Ei PM2025:03 — ~45% of 155 DSOs reported non-zero needs):
| Horizon | Combined range |
|---|---|
| 0–2 years from 2025 | 277–1,030 MW |
| 3–5 years | 640–1,883 MW |
| 6–10 years | 1,387–2,523 MW |
Three large DSOs (covering ~20% of Swedish customers) reported separately by direction:
- Consumption: 301–346 → 821–1,092 → 0–1,688 MW
- Production: 2,462–2,572 → 2,110–2,550 → 6–2,948 MW
E.ON market-specific needs (from E.ON public flexibility market pages):
| Market | Need | Until | Hours/year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Södra Skåne | 30 MW | ≥2029 | 50–100 |
| Hässleholm | 7 MW | ≥2028 | 150–300 |
| Nordöstra Skåne | 10 MW | ≥2028 | 50–100 |
| Bromölla-Sölvesborg | 8 MW | ≥2030 | 50–100 |
| Enköping | 3 MW | ≥2029 | 50–100 |
| Bålsta | 2 MW | ≥2029 | 50–100 |
| Kallhäll | 2 MW | ≥2027 | 50–100 |
| Kungsängen | 2.5 MW | ≥2027 | 50–100 |
| Norra Örebro | 2 MW | ≥2030 | 50–100 |
| Vaxholm | 2 MW | ≥2027 | 50–100 |
| Älmhult-Osby | 3 MW | ≥2030 | 50–100 |
Technical flexibility potentials by 2030 (hourly timescale)
Potentials represent the realistic technical maximum at that timescale — not simultaneously achievable (seasonal complementarity, see below).
Production resources
| Resource | Now (1h) | 2030 (1h) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | 250 MW | 300 MW | Zero prequalification today; French model shows 300 MW hourly feasible; up to 6 yr transition time |
| Hydro | 3,000 MW | 6,000 MW | 16,400 MW installed; Sweco +3,400 MW efficiency potential; +700 MW assumed to 2030 |
| Wind | 1,360 MW | 6,000 MW | 17,000 MW today; 24,000 MW assumed 2030; primarily downward |
| Solar | ~0 MW | 4,000 MW | Daytime only; assumes 12,000 MW net-connected by 2030 |
| Kraftvärme | 330 MW | 340/2,630 MW (summer/winter) | 4,550 MW installed; seasonal availability 10%/77% |
| Gas turbines | 1,500 MW | 2,000 MW | 30+ turbines; start in 5–12 min; biogas cost ~16,950 SEK/MWh |
Demand response resources
| Resource | Now (1h) | 2030 (1h) | Key barrier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat pumps | 300 MW | 5,750 MW | Smart control hardware (58 SEK/MWh cost); 2.5M units assumed 2030 |
| Industry | ~300 MW | 1,300 MW | Three cost levels: 100/2,000/4,000 SEK/MWh; must not disrupt core process |
| Light EVs (upward) | 70 MW | 1,600–1,700 MW | 85% non-public smart charging assumed 100% by 2030 |
| Light EVs (downward) | 0 MW | 5,200 MW | 20% of fleet assume anslutna simultaneously |
| Heavy EVs | 0 MW | 730 MW | 20% trucks + 50% buses electrified by 2030; depot night-charging |
| Electric boilers | 30 MW | 975 MW | Energy tax eliminates incentive; analysis assumes tax reduced by 2030 |
Storage resources
| Resource | Now (1h) | 2030 (1h) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| V2G | 0 MW | 5,000 MW | 20% of EV fleet V2G-compatible; Svk physical address rule; ISO 15118 incomplete |
| Stationary batteries | ~750 MW | 8,000 MW | 9,500 MW in queue at E.ON alone; prices -30% by 2030; 8 GW assumed |
| Pumped hydro | 90 MW | 400 MW | 8 plants ×50 MW assumed; Juktan (300 MW) deferred to 2032 |
| Hydrogen | 0 MW | 1,500 MW | Many projects delayed/cancelled; assumes 3,000 MW electrolysers |
Grid itself: +25% capacity from operational optimization (dynamic line rating, probabilistic N-1 methods) — based on Norwegian Maksgrid results; no new investment required.
Seasonal totals (hourly timescale)
| Season | Total available |
|---|---|
| Winter evening | ~45,000 MW |
| Summer daytime | ~34,000 MW |
Short timescales (second–hour): dominated by demand response and storage. Long timescales (day–week–season): dominated by hydro (and gas turbines as reserve).
Marginal cost supply curves
Key marginal costs at hourly timescale (SEK/MWh):
| Resource | Downward | Upward |
|---|---|---|
| Hydro | −450 (saves water) | 103 |
| Nuclear | −450 (saves fuel) | 153 |
| Kraftvärme | −450 (saves fuel) | 1,372 |
| Wind | 0 | — (no upward) |
| Solar | 0 | — (no upward) |
| Light EVs | 0 | 0 |
| Heavy EVs | 0 | 0 |
| V2G | 0 | 94 |
| Heat pumps | 58 | 58 |
| Electric boilers | 694 | 0 |
| Pumped hydro | 520 | 520 |
| Batteries (large) | 82–163 | 82–163 |
| Batteries (small) | 111–223 | 111–223 |
| Industry level 1 (350 MW) | — | 100 |
| Industry level 2 (850 MW) | — | 2,000 |
| Industry level 3 (100 MW) | — | 4,000 |
| Gas turbines (biogas, 24h) | — | 16,950 |
Key structural conclusions
- Needs growing fast: weekly downward regulation grows 153% to 2030; local DSO needs jump 3–5× over the decade
- Investment risk: during the project period, wind, hydrogen, and industrial electrification forecasts were all revised downward — the 2024 preliminary potentials were higher
- Nuclear untapped: zero prequalification today; could contribute 300 MW by 2030 at hourly scale
- Batteries accelerating: +30% FCR-N prequalification since Jan 2025; 9,500 MW in queue at E.ON; green tech deduction driving hembatterier
- V2G: structural barriers: Svk requires physical address for support services; ISO 15118 incomplete; business models immature
- Electric boilers: policy-blocked: energy tax removes economic incentive entirely — 975 MW potential sitting idle
- Hydro dominates long timescales to 2030: pumpkraft and hydrogen won’t contribute materially until after 2030
- Geographic heterogeneity: flexibility cannot be treated as homogeneous; local supply/demand mapping required — FNA methodology is the right vehicle
Key claims
- Swedish flexibility needs grow 20–153% by 2030 depending on timescale and direction
- Stationary batteries: 8,000 MW realistic potential by 2030 at hourly scale; 9,500 MW already in E.ON’s connection queue
- Heat pumps: 5,750 MW by 2030 vs 300 MW prequalified today — the biggest demand-response gap
- Nuclear: technically could provide 300 MW at hour scale, 2,400 MW at daily scale — but transition takes ~6 years and zero prequalification currently
- Electric boiler potential (975 MW) blocked entirely by energy tax structure
- V2G (5,000 MW) has significant technical potential but multiple non-technical barriers may limit 2030 realization
- The grid itself can absorb 25% more through operational optimization alone
- Local DSO flexibility needs totalling 277–2,523 MW over three time horizons (from DNDPs)
Relevance to wiki
- Flexibility — four-category taxonomy; seasonal totals; investment slowdown risk
- Balancing Markets — FCR/aFRR/mFRR 2025→2030 volume table; FFR growth
- Energy Storage — detailed potentials for batteries, V2G, pumped hydro, hydrogen with numbers
- Demand Response — heat pumps, EVs, industry quantified with barriers and costs
- Flexibility Market — E.ON market-specific needs table; local DSO DNDP aggregate
- Flexibility Need Assessment — DNDP aggregate flexibility needs (Ei PM2025:03)
- E.ON Energidistribution — E.ON market needs table
- Virtual Power Plant — hybrid resource combinations section
- Svenska kraftnät — Svk physical address rule blocking V2G; nuclear zero prequalification