Source - FlexAbility Delrapport 2 (2025)
Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Title | Utveckling av marknader och verktyg för flexibilitet |
| Sub-report | FlexAbility, delrapport 2 av 5 |
| Publisher | Power Circle (with Plexigrid, Ellevio, Uppsala University) |
| Date | Oktober 2025 |
| Pages | 49 |
| Funder | Energimyndigheten |
| File | raw/flexability_delrapport_2.pdf |
| Extraction | raw/flexability-delrapport-2-extracted.txt |
Scope: Historical development and price analysis of Swedish flexibility markets (local and national balancing), combined with forward-looking analysis of tools, products, and conditions needed to unlock flexibility to 2030. Based on market data from E.ON, Ellevio, Göteborg Energi Elnät, Mölndal Energi Elnät, NODES, Sweco, and Vattenfall; Uppsala University thesis (Albrecht & Rosten 2025) for balancing market price modelling.
Summary
The report establishes three main findings:
-
Local flex markets are growing and maturing, but activation remains rare (6% of hours in 2024/25). Availability products now dominate by volume. Prices are converging upward to 3,100–3,800 SEK/MWh across established markets, with Hässleholm as a persistent outlier at ~16,000 SEK/MWh.
-
Local market prices are competitive with national balancing market alternatives during activation hours. During 2024/25, FCR-D exceeded local activation prices zero of 233 activation hours; mFRR exceeded local prices only 16 times. The economic case for value stacking across local and national markets is confirmed.
-
The toolkit is wider than what DSOs actually use. Most DSOs rely on effekttariffer and villkorade avtal. Only ~15% consider participating in a flex market. Nine structural conditions — from cross-BRP aggregation to common APIs — must be addressed to unlock the technical potential identified in Delrapport 1.
Balancing market historical values and price forecasts
Market structure changes
- FCR marginal pricing introduced 1 February 2024 (replaced pay-as-bid for all FCR products)
- aFRR split by price zone since 11 May 2022 (previously one system price for all of Sweden)
Historical annual economic values (Uppsala thesis, 2024 data for FCR)
| Product | Annual value |
|---|---|
| FCR (all products) | ~50–100 million EUR/year |
| aFRR (up + down) | ~10–20 million EUR/year |
| mFRR (up + down) | ~20–30 million EUR/year |
Price forecasts to 2030
Based on Svk’s four long-term scenarios applied to regression + SARIMAX modelling:
| Scenario | Electricity use (TWh) | Nuclear | Wind | Solar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS (Färdplan småskalig) | 162 | 46.5 | 68 | 4.5 |
| FM (Färdplan mixad) | 175 | 49.0 | 71 | 4.0 |
| EP (Elektrifiering planerbart) | 227 | 63.0 | 73 | 6.5 |
| EF (Elektrifiering förnybart) | 227 | 50.5 | 87 | 8.5 |
Forecast conclusions:
- FCR prices: expected to decline as market matures and more actors join
- aFRR: prices may increase in SE1; decrease in SE4; highest prices in FM scenario
- mFRR: prices trending upward to 2030; SE1 < SE2 < SE3 < SE4 ranking preserved; EP/EF scenarios significantly more demanding
- FFR: prices likely to decline over time despite growing volume need (more competition)
Local flex market comprehensive data
Volume-weighted average activation prices (all markets, all seasons)
Overall average all seasons: 700 SEK/MWh (dominated by large early CoordiNet Uppland volumes at 220–250 SEK/MWh) Two most recent seasons (ex-Hässleholm): 3,100–3,800 SEK/MWh Latest season 2024/25 (ex-Hässleholm): 3,300 SEK/MWh — highest to date
| Season | Vol.-weighted avg (SEK/MWh) | With Hässleholm |
|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | 250 | — |
| 2020/21 | 300 | — |
| 2021/22 | 850 | — |
| 2022/23 | 1,500 | — |
| 2023/24 | 3,000 | 3,700 |
| 2024/25 | 3,300 | 3,900 |
Activation data by market and season (Tabell 6)
| Market | Season | Hours | Volume (MWh) | Avg price (SEK/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.ON Bålsta | 23–24 | 6 | 9 | 1,600 |
| E.ON Hässleholm | 23–24 | 79 | 46 | 15,768 |
| E.ON Hässleholm | 24–25 | 65 | 33 | 16,000 |
| E.ON Kalhäll | 24–25 | 5 | 5 | 3,000 |
| E.ON Nordöstra Skåne | 24–25 | 36 | 39 | 2,353 |
| E.ON Södra Skåne | 23–24 | 31 | 74 | 3,759 |
| E.ON Södra Skåne | 24–25 | 52 | 389 | 3,785 |
| E.ON Vaxholm | 23–24 | 42 | 9 | 1,651 |
| Effekthandel Väst Göteborg | 21–22 | 9 | 2 | 1,811 |
| Effekthandel Väst Göteborg | 22–23 | 28 | 23 | 3,052 |
| Effekthandel Väst Göteborg | 23–24 | 90 | 283 | 3,975 |
| Effekthandel Väst Göteborg | 24–25 | 106 | 213 | 2,900 |
| Effekthandel Väst Mölndal | 22–23 | 17 | 10 | 4,351 |
| Effekthandel Väst Mölndal | 23–24 | 94 | 131 | 3,412 |
| Effekthandel Väst Mölndal | 24–25 | 41 | 35 | 2,712 |
| CoordiNet Skåne | 19–20 | 26 | 65 | 1,670 |
| CoordiNet Skåne | 20–21 | 35 | 122 | 1,503 |
| CoordiNet Skåne | 21–22 | 32 | 9 | 2,892 |
| CoordiNet Uppland | 19–20 | 172 | 3,300 | 220 |
| CoordiNet Uppland | 20–21 | 412 | 6,600 | 235 |
| CoordiNet Uppland | 21–22 | 100 | — | 248 |
| sthlmflex | 20–21 | — | 2,276 | 485 |
| sthlmflex | 21–22 | — | 878 | 883 |
| sthlmflex | 22–23 | — | 98 | 742 |
| sthlmflex | 23–24 | — | 91 | 1,841 |
| Uppsala Flexmarknad | 22–23 | 35 | 34 | 1,700 |
| Uppsala Flexmarknad | 23–24 | 19 | 123 | 710 |
| Kinnekulle Flexmarknad | 23–24 | 6 | 1.2 | 3,000 |
| Kinnekulle Flexmarknad | 24–25 | 15 | 20 | 2,372 |
Availability data (Tabell 7, selected)
| Market | Season | Hours | Volume (MWh) | Avg price (SEK/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.ON Bålsta | 24–25 | 8 | 5.5 | 3,000 |
| E.ON Hässleholm | 24–25 | 496 | 293 | 387 |
| E.ON Nordöstra Skåne | 24–25 | 792 | 527 | 387 |
| E.ON Södra Skåne | 24–25 | 215 | 1,798 | 2,753 |
| Effekthandel Väst Göteborg | 24–25 | 609 | 5,504 | 217 |
| Effekthandel Väst Mölndal | 24–25 | 556 | 490 | 200 |
MaxUsage data (Tabell 8, selected)
| Market | Season | Hours | Volume (MWh) | Avg price (SEK/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effekthandel Väst Göteborg | 24–25 | 782 | 717 | 1,000 |
| Effekthandel Väst Mölndal | 24–25 | 596 | 221 | 451 |
| Kinnekulle Flexmarknad | 24–25 | 817 | 82 | 350 |
Effektförmåga (qualified capacity by market)
| Market | 21–22 | 22–23 | 23–24 | 24–25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effekthandel Väst Göteborg | 1 MW | 11 MW | 19 MW | 14.7/14.5/3.9 MW (activation/availability/MaxUsage) |
| Effekthandel Väst Mölndal | — | 2.5 MW | 5.5/0.5/0.04 MW | 5.5/1.75/1.1 MW |
| Kinnekulle Flexmarknad | — | — | 0.3 MW | 5.27 MW |
| E.ON Södra Skåne | — | — | 26.4 MW | 20.5 MW |
| E.ON Nordöstra Skåne | — | — | — | 1.1 MW |
| E.ON Hässleholm | — | — | 0.7 MW | 0.6 MW |
| E.ON Bålsta | — | — | 1 MW | 2 MW |
Activation timing
- 2023/24: most activations at 07:00–10:00 and 16:00–17:00; peak hour 10:00
- 2024/25: most activations at 08:00–11:00; peak hour 09:00
- Pattern consistent with general electricity demand curve
Season 2024/25 overall picture
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Activation hours (any market) | 233 (6% of season) |
| Availability procurement hours | 893 (25% of season) |
| MaxUsage procurement hours | 906 (25% of season) |
| Total availability procured | 8,800 MWh (double prior season) |
| Total MaxUsage procured | 1,000 MWh (5× prior season) |
| E.ON total (all markets) | 3,185 MWh (all product types) |
| Effekthandel Väst total | 7,180 MWh |
| E.ON Södra Skåne cost | ~SEK 7.5M (50%+ from Södra Skåne alone) |
Local vs national market price comparison
For hours when local flex was purchased, comparison of local price vs FCR-D, mFRR, and spot:
Season 2023/24 (329 activation hours):
- mFRR > local price: only 11 of 329 hours
- Spot > local price: only 18 of 329 hours
- FCR-D > local price: only 1 of 329 hours
Season 2024/25 (233 activation hours):
- mFRR > local activation: only 16 of 233 hours
- Spot > local activation: only 13 of 233 hours
- FCR-D up > local activation: 0 of 233 hours
Conclusion: confirms UppFlex result — local flex prices are competitive (mostly higher than alternatives) during the hours when DSOs actually buy. But activation happens only 6% of hours; for remaining 94%, national markets may offer better revenue opportunities → value stacking is essential.
Batteries in Effekthandel Väst that also held FCR-D positions received roughly equal revenue from both markets in 2024/25. This is the clearest empirical demonstration of value stacking to date.
DSO toolkit survey (Ei PM2025:03 — from DNDP analysis)
| Metric | Share of DSOs |
|---|---|
| Considered non-grid alternatives | ~65% |
| Only mention effekttariffer as alternative | ~40% |
| ~55% have considered alternatives beyond effekttariffer | — |
| Currently use flexibility services or resources | ~20% (all large DSOs) |
| Use no flexibility services today | ~50% |
| Use or consider villkorade avtal / bilateral agreements | ~40% |
| Use or plan to use energy storage | ~20% |
| Consider creating or joining a flex market | ~15% |
| Have used redispatching (omdirigering) | 5 DSOs only |
Most DSOs’ primary flexibility tool: effekttariffer (mandatory from 1 January 2027). Local flex markets and formal redispatching remain minority tools.
Villkorade avtal workshop (September 2024, 42 participants)
Tool suitability scores (1–10) by situation
For variable production (solel/vind):
| Tool | Score |
|---|---|
| Villkorade avtal with compensation | 7.1 |
| Price signals (tariffs + spot) | 6.9 |
| Bilateral agreements with compensation | 6.6 |
| Voluntary flex markets | 6.6 |
| Villkorade avtal without compensation | 5.9 |
For additional consumption (EVs, heat pumps):
| Tool | Score |
|---|---|
| Voluntary flex markets | 7.1 |
| Villkorade avtal with compensation | 7.0 |
| Price signals (tariffs + spot) | 6.5 |
| Bilateral agreements with compensation | 6.0 |
| Villkorade avtal without compensation | 5.6 |
For flexible resources generally:
| Tool | Score |
|---|---|
| Voluntary flex markets | 8.7 |
| Bilateral agreements with compensation | 7.0 |
| Price signals | 6.6 |
| Villkorade avtal with compensation | 6.5 |
| Villkorade avtal without compensation | 4.7 |
When are villkorade avtal most/least appropriate?
Highest-scoring situations (7.8/10 each):
- Areas where grid reinforcement will arrive within 3–5 years
- Areas where N-1 redundancy cannot be guaranteed if a fault occurs
Lowest-scoring: areas with many similarly-sized customers (3.2/10 — competitive market preferred)
Workshop consensus on overall role: supporting alongside other measures (majority view). Only 4 of 42 participants said villkorade avtal should be the primary solution.
Activation prioritization ranking (highest to lowest)
- Curtail based on societal benefit (samhällsnytta)
- Curtail all customers equally (proportional to subscription)
- Prioritize customers with connected energy storage
- Prioritize customers not participating in a local flex market
- Random activation
Network tariff reform
Ei Ställningstagande Ei2025:06 (June 2025) — tariff design clarification:
- Effektavgiften must be time-differentiated based on actual grid stress — not just the customer’s three monthly peaks
- Tariff components must be cost-reflective: energy component can be time-differentiated; power component shall be time-differentiated; fixed component covers residuals
- Some 2025/26 tariffs introduced by DSOs already do not comply with the 2027 regulation
- Tariffs that penalize consumption when grid has no capacity constraints create false signals and reduce flex market liquidity
Gotland pilot (Energicentrum Gotland 2025): demonstrated a bidirectional capacity-based energy tariff where:
- Loading direction: always a positive cost (cost-reflective)
- Relieving direction: always a negative cost (net benefit / nätnyttoersättning)
- Tariff varied hourly, aligned with actual grid state — analogous to spot pricing for the network
Location signals (lokaliseringssignaler):
- Currently prohibited in local networks (lokalnät) under ellagen
- Ei proposed legalizing them (Ei PM2020:03); SOU 2023:64 (2023) proposed removing the prohibition
- Ei has an ongoing review on how localisation signals can be introduced
- SOU 2025:47 (Spänning i tillvaron, April 2025) supports location signal development
Standardization and new products
LFM-h / LFM-p / LFM-e — standardized product proposal
Swedish DSOs submitted a joint standardization proposal to Ei in 2024:
- LFM-h: hourly availability product (capacity available during a specific hour)
- LFM-p: period availability product (capacity available during a selected time period)
- LFM-e: energy activation product (energy delivered from free bids or availability contracts)
New product categories not yet on Swedish markets
- Voltage regulation (spänningsreglering) — urgently needed as distributed solar grows in LV/MV networks; would extend market to year-round operation (not just winter peak load)
- Rotational inertia (mekanisk rotationsenergi) — SOU 2025:47 recommends compensation mechanism; not on any Swedish market
- Ramping products — Ireland has three ramping products; not in Sweden
- Emergency / comfort reduction programs — could activate before automatic disconnection; participants accept comfort reduction (e.g., room temperature −2°C) in advance
- Effektreserven reform — should be reopened to industrial demand response; currently industrial flex appears at hourly timescales but at costs too high for regular activation (suitable for rare high-stakes events)
Nine structural conditions for flex development (from interviews)
- DSOs required to plan for capacity beyond dimensioned need (überanslutning / overanslutning) — creates genuine need to procure flex
- Incentives for DSOs to take risk — reward flexibility enablement, not only minimum opex
- Product harmonization across local markets — enables multi-market FSP participation
- Cross-BRP aggregation in a single bid — current BRP rules prevent aggregators from pooling resources with different balance responsible parties
- Common API for activation across all flex markets — same interface regardless of platform (SWITCH, NODES, or future)
- Identical activation formats and protocols — reduces operational complexity for multi-market participants
- Single prequalification valid across all markets — qualify once, participate anywhere
- Local network tariffs accessible via API — aggregators can self-serve tariff data
- Coordinated system development / national flex architecture — avoids each DSO building its own system
BSP role in Nordic neighbors
The Balance Service Provider (BSP) role — which enables cross-BRP aggregation into balancing market bids — is operational in Finland, Denmark, and Norway, but not yet in Sweden. This is a structural advantage of neighboring markets cited by Swedish aggregators. Also noted: Finland, Denmark, and Norway have easier API access and prequalification processes.
Key conclusions from the report
- Flexibility markets function best when combined with good short-term forecasting by DSOs and clear long-term communication of need — DNDP-level transparency is a precondition for FSP investment decisions
- Latent capacity (effektförmåga) far exceeds actual activation — the system has registered more capacity than it activates; the constraint is not physical but economic and organizational
- Villkorade avtal work as a supplement for situations with grid safety urgency or where markets are not yet feasible; markets should be the primary tool for flexible resources
- Local flex market prices are competitive during activation hours — the argument that local markets can’t compete against national markets is empirically disproven
Relevance to wiki
- Flexibility Market — comprehensive price tables (all markets all seasons), effektförmåga table, activation timing, LFM-h/p/e standardization, DSO toolkit survey, nine structural conditions
- Balancing Markets — FCR/aFRR/mFRR historical values, marginal pricing reform (Feb 2024), aFRR zone split (May 2022), price forecasts to 2030
- Villkorade Avtal — workshop suitability scores by situation; appropriate use cases; activation prioritization
- Aggregation — cross-BRP barrier, BSP role in Nordic neighbors, nine structural conditions list
- Effekthandel Väst — first comprehensive price and volume data (Tabell 6–8)
- Why Swedish Local Flex Markets Are Thin — Structural Causes — 6% activation rate; latent capacity finding; value stacking confirmation; DSO toolkit survey (only 15% consider joining a flex market)