Source - GENAB Nätutvecklingsplan 2025-2034 (2024)

Göteborg Energi Nät AB — Nätutvecklingsplan 2025–2034 (Distribution Network Development Plan 2025–2034) Company: Göteborg Energi Nät AB (GENAB) Diarienummer: 20-2024-0318 Contact: Jimmy Vylund (Natutvecklingsplan@GoteborgEnergi.se) Published: Final version submitted 31 December 2024 (samråd period: 13 September – 8 November 2024) File: raw/PDF extractions/Nätutvecklingsplan GENAB 2025-2034/

Samrådsredogörelse (consultation report) Göteborg Energi Nät AB — Nätutvecklingsplan 2025–2034 Samrådsredogörelse Same diarienummer: 20-2024-0318 File: raw/PDF extractions/Samrådsregogörelse Nätutvecklingsplan GENAB 2025-2034/

Both documents are grouped into this source page. The samrådsredogörelse contains the consultation responses and is incorporated into the DNDP (§5 Samråd) in full.

Document metadata

• Type: Mandatory DNDP under EIFS 2024:1 (Ei template)
• Regulatory basis: Ellag 3 kap. 16 §; Förordning (2022:585) §§ 13–15; EIFS 2024:1
• Period covered: 2025–2034 (10 years)
• Area: Gothenburg municipality (Göteborg), excluding Askim and Gothenburg’s archipelago
• Three-pillar compliance: Full — scenario development (§2.1), capacity needs (§2.2–2.3), investment and alternative solutions (§3)

Company overview

GENAB (Göteborg Energi Nät AB, org.nr 556379-2729) is the DSO subsidiary of Göteborg Energi AB (municipally owned by City of Gothenburg). It operates a city distribution grid characterised by:

• ~270,000 customers
• Own 130 kV network (unusual for a DSO — most DSOs connect to a regional company’s 130 kV)
• Network structure: 130 kV → 130/10 kV transformers → switchable 10 kV ring feeders → radial 0.4 kV
• Three delområden: Area A and B connect to Vattenfall Eldistribution’s regional network; Area C connects to Ellevio

Customer breakdown

Businesses (10 kV + 0.4 kV) dominate energy volume despite apartments being the largest customer group by count.

Capacity forecast methodology

GENAB uses a normalkall vinterdag (normal cold winter day) as the dimensioning scenario — the planning basis is the peak winter day in an average year, not a 10- or 50-year cold extreme. Three scenarios (cold year, warm year, average year) are computed; the DNDP presents the average.

Forecast is segmented by:

• Stad (city/residential): based on Göteborg city planning documents (oversiktsplan, detaljplaner), kwadratmeter-per-unit assumptions with and without fjärrvärme (district heating), 50% coincidence factor for aggregated city segment
• Transport: disaggregated by vehicle type (cars, heavy trucks, light commercial) and charging type (depot charging, rest-stop charging, etc.); load curve modelled per vehicle type; load balancing assumed in medium scenario but not high scenario
• Industri: point loads dominate through 2030; general industrial forecast added 2030+ (linear interpolation to 2035)

Energieffektivisering: The existing customer base is assumed to reduce consumption at 1% per year annually — historically this has kept total grid load stable despite economic growth and new connections.

Forecast origin confirmation: Methodology builds on the Energiforsk sector standard plus GENAB-specific assumptions (confirmed in samrådsredogörelse response to Länsstyrelsen Västra Götaland).

Capacity forecasts (Tabell 3 + Tabell 4)

Historical baseline (Tabell 4)

Prognosis 2025–2034 (Tabell 3)

Growth vs 2022–2023 mean (Tabell 5): Area A +92% by 2034; Area B +12%; Area C +21%.

Area A is almost entirely driven by large industrial point loads — primarily harbour electrification (shipping), heavy transport charging, and new industrial connections. Areas B and C grow more slowly.

Five-step planning hierarchy

GENAB applies a structured five-step hierarchy when assessing how to meet new capacity needs:

1. Tänk om (Reconsider): Discuss location, load profile, on-site storage, etc. with the connecting customer. Assess maturity and help customer understand grid impact.
2. Optimera (Optimise): Free up capacity through network reconfiguration and/or risk evaluation of whether existing infrastructure can handle increased load.
3. Avtala (Contract): Sign villkorade avtal, flexibility service agreements, and/or technical conditional agreements to enable connection without major investment.
4. Bygg om (Rebuild): Minor network reinforcements, load transfers, clearing small bottlenecks.
5. Bygg nytt (Build new): New cable runs, stations, etc.

Steps 1–3 are primarily administrative but are combined with connection work at the customer’s premises. Step 3 is where flexibility tools — including both Villkorade Avtal and the Effekthandel Väst market — sit. Steps 4–5 are capital investment decisions evaluated on Arbetsmiljö/Miljö/Leveranssäkerhet/Ekonomi/Kund criteria.

Least-worst-regret investment methodology

Larger investments are evaluated using the least-worst-regret method — described in detail with a worked example. The method is borrowed from the UK electricity network sector.

Logic: For any large investment, identify two or more scenarios that differ in when/whether a larger capacity is needed. For each combination of (alternative, scenario), calculate total NPV cost. “Regret” for a given combination = cost difference vs. the optimal choice for that scenario. The chosen alternative is the one whose worst-case regret is lowest.

Worked example (single vs. double transformer station for a customer who may double their load in five years):

This methodology favours building scalability (empty conduit, transformer space) into investments even when future demand is uncertain. It is also applied for standardizing small connection solutions into an “anslutningstrappa” (connection ladder) that gives efficient guidance without case-by-case evaluation.

Planned investments (Tabell 6)

Status scale: 1=planned, 2=awaiting permit, 3=permit granted not started, 4=started, 5=under consideration, 6=other

ReKa-programmet (reinvestering kabelnät) has been running since 2021. Replaces ageing cables/lines; each reinvestment is dimensioned for forecasted future load or includes empty conduit. Communication infrastructure is also upgraded alongside cable reinvestment, enabling further grid digitalisation.

Bäckebol (A5): Triggered by dialogue with logistics companies, charge point infrastructure owners, vehicle manufacturers, and R&D centers. GENAB is proactively coordinating with municipal authorities for shared infrastructure solutions before formal grid applications arrive — illustrating anticipatory investment thinking.

Flexibility need quantification

§3.3.1 MW need (Tabell 7)

Flexibility need is defined as the difference between: (a) maximum forecast load in the local grid + (b) total available capacity from overlying network + local plannable production. Where this difference is negative (demand exceeds supply), flex or other resources are needed.

The range reflects the uncertainty in when new regional network infrastructure (primarily Vattenfall Eldistribution’s regional grid expansions) will come online. Lower bound = overlying network upgrades commissioned on the optimistic schedule; upper bound = delays.

GENAB notes that Area B can also be used to supply Area A in some configurations, providing additional buffer.

§3.3.2 GWh/hours/occasions need (Tabell 8)

To support appropriate tool selection, GENAB goes beyond the EIFS 2024:1 MW minimum and quantifies three additional dimensions:

This multi-dimensional characterisation matters for tool selection: a few short deep peaks (Example 1 in the report) are best addressed by fast-response demand response or market activation; sustained high-volume constrained periods (Example 2) require dispatchable local generation or large contracted capacity. The three metrics together map to the optimal product: MW for sizing, hours for product duration, occasions for availability pricing.

Kapacitetsprogrammet

GENAB has launched Kapacitetsprogrammet — a dedicated programme to forecast, build, and enable flexibility resources and other tools for managing capacity constraints. This is the institutional home for all demand-side and market capacity solutions, operating alongside the traditional grid investment programme.

The programme’s tools (as described in §3.3.2, Figur 3) are layered by operational state:

• Normal mode: Tariffer (price signals) + Energieffektivisering + Villkorade avtal (passive)
• Strained mode: Ökat uttag från överliggande nät + Effekthandel Väst (marknadsbaserad flexibilitet)
• Overload risk: Planerbar produktion + Villkorade avtal (active)

Planerbar produktion (local plannable production)

GENAB identifies local CHP plants and gas turbines already connected to its network as high-potential tools. These currently run only sporadically or are idle. Their key advantage: high reliability (planned output guaranteed) and ability to deliver sustained energy over many hours — one MW of plannable production is effectively equivalent to one MW of additional transmission capacity. GENAB aims to develop contract forms that make long-term, cost-effective procurement of this resource viable.

Marknadsbaserad flexibilitet — Effekthandel Väst

Origin confirmed: When early forecasts showed potential capacity shortfall, GENAB launched the Effekthandel Väst local flexibility market in season 2021/22 — the market was purpose-built from the start as a capacity management tool, not an experiment in market design.

Market is described as well-suited to handling hour-scale or multi-hour capacity shortfalls (Example 1 type), but assessed as insufficient alone for prolonged high-volume constraints (Example 2) — confirming that a portfolio of tools is needed as the capacity situation evolves toward 2028–2034.

Villkorade avtal — GENAB’s design

GENAB decided in 2023 to introduce villkorade avtal for all new connections above 1 MW:

• All customers with new requests or expansions ≥1 MW receive 1 MW as guaranteed capacity (garanterad effekt)
• Remaining capacity above 1 MW is villkorad (conditional/curtailable)
• When GENAB’s short-term forecast projects a capacity shortfall and all other resources are exhausted (see Figur 3), customers with villkorade avtal must be ready to reduce to as low as 1 MW within the control interval
• Philosophy: “Vi ser detta som en sista åtgärd och inte som en aktiv flexresurs där målet är att de villkorade avtalen aldrig kommer aktiveras” — GENAB explicitly frames villkorade avtal as a last resort, not an active flexibility resource; the goal is that they are never actually activated

Adequacy assessment (§4)

GENAB’s overall assessment: planned actions are sufficient to meet the forecasted need, but this is contingent on:

1. Overlying network upgrades (primarily Vattenfall Eldistribution’s regional grid) receiving timely permits and commissioning on schedule
2. Legislation and regulation enabling the planned flexibility tools

Local grid: Planned investments in §3.2 and flexibility tools in §3.3 are assessed as adequate for local network constraints in all three delområden.

Overlying network (Area A primarily): Capacity shortfall risk is assessed as real, driven by large point loads in Area A, with Vattenfall Eldistribution as the responsible party. Data exchange with regional network companies is being improved (maturity assessment process initiated), but further development needed.

Consultation (§5 + Samrådsredogörelse)

Länsstyrelsen welcomed the plan as providing “a good overall and transparent picture” of capacity needs and planned actions. SVK had no comments. Both are the mandatory consultation parties under EIFS 2024:1.

Relevance to existing wiki pages