Ramboll Nyckeltal Hushålls Efterfrågeflexibilitet (2024)

Consultant report commissioned by Energimarknadsinspektionen (Ei). Ramboll Sweden AB, January 2024. Establishes a KPI framework and baseline measurements for tracking the development of household demand flexibility in Sweden, using COM-B behavioral model analysis and a two-strand survey (n=1,173 villa households + n=175 market actors).

Commissioning body: Energimarknadsinspektionen (Ei — the Swedish Energy Markets Inspectorate); the report notes Ei may seek future statistics-collection collaboration with Energimyndigheten (Swedish Energy Agency), a separate body

Context: Companion study to the AFRY 2023 market mapping; Ramboll provides the measurement framework, AFRY the service landscape

Scope and method

Two primary research strands:

Household survey (n=1,173 villa households): Online panel, quota sampled to be representative of Swedish villa households by age and region. The focus on villa (detached house) owners is deliberate — these are the households with the broadest DER base (heat pumps, potentially EVs and solar). Apartment dwellers are not in scope. Conducted late 2023.

Market actor survey (n=175 actors): Electricity suppliers, DSOs, and other market actors. Covers their current offerings, planned developments, consumer engagement strategies, and views on regulatory barriers.

Analytical framework: The COM-B behavioral model (West & Michie) structures both KPI design and barrier analysis. COM-B holds that behavior (B) requires three simultaneous conditions:

• C — Capability: the consumer has the knowledge and skills to act
• O — Opportunity: the context enables the behavior (financial, physical, regulatory)
• M — Motivation: the consumer wants to act (reflective goals and automatic/habitual responses)

This framework shapes which KPIs are tracked (not just outcomes, but enabling conditions) and why certain barriers are prioritised.

Key KPI findings — household survey

Timprisavtal (hourly pricing contract) adoption

• Overall: 15% of villa households have a timprisavtal
• SE1 (north Sweden): 4% — extremely low
• SE4 (south Sweden, Malmö region): 18% — highest penetration
• SE2: 14%, SE3: 15% — intermediate between SE1 and SE4, consistent with the price-exposure gradient
• Planning to switch to timprisavtal: additional ~5–8% across zones; intent outpaces adoption

The zone variation is interpreted as partly driven by historical price volatility — SE4, which experienced more price extremes, has higher consumer motivation to engage with hourly pricing. SE1’s low penetration reflects low average prices making the financial upside smaller.

Flexible households

• 42% of villa households report being flexible — meaning they shifted electricity use to cheaper/less-loaded hours at least once in the past 12 months
• This is a self-reported behavioral measure, not a contract or device measure
• The most common ways households report being flexible: running the dishwasher at a different time (34%), washing machine/dryer (31.2%), heating system (18%), showering/bathing (8.6%), vacuuming (5.7%), cooking (4.9%). The report does not characterize this behavior as predominantly manual — among the subset of households without an hourly contract, more report adapting automatically (22%, e.g. a dishwasher timer) than manually (9%)
• Only a small fraction of the 42% are enrolled in any formal flexibility service

Connection to revenue-generating flexibility services

• 2.8% of villa households are connected to a revenue-generating flexibility service (aggregation, FSP, or market platform)
• This is the metric closest to “active market participation” — it captures households actually earning money from their flexibility
• The gap between 42% (behavioral flexibility) and 2.8% (market participation) illustrates the conversion problem: households are willing but not connected

DSO tariff structures

• 21% of DSOs have a time-differentiated network tariff (e.g., higher grid charges during peak hours)
• 84% of suppliers offer a timprisavtal product to customers
• The supplier-DSO asymmetry reflects the faster competitive response on the supply side vs the regulated, cost-recovery logic on the network side

EV charging behaviour

• 8.6% of all villa households report having adapted EV/plug-in-hybrid charging to price or grid load — this is a share of all villa households, not of EV-owning households
• 19% of villa households report owning an EV or plug-in hybrid, so the 8.6% represents roughly half of EV/hybrid-owning households having adapted their charging (the report states this directly: “ungefär hälften av dem som har en elbil och laddhybrid”)
• The report frames this as room for growth rather than a readiness gap: most EV/hybrid owners have not yet adapted charging, and rising EV penetration plus smart-charging/V2G technology development are both expected to increase this share over time

Key findings — market actor survey

Supplier offerings

• 84% of suppliers offer timprisavtal — near-universal on the supply side
• Most suppliers also offer some form of energy management advice (budget tools, consumption dashboards)
• Control services (direct automation, market aggregation) are offered by a much smaller share

DSO tariff development

• 21% of DSOs already offer a time-differentiated demand charge (effekttariff — peak power charges); of the 69 DSOs who answered the survey question, 14 had introduced one
• By law, all Swedish DSOs must have introduced time-differentiated effekttariffer by 2027 — the survey did not measure or report a specific share of DSOs actively “planning” one ahead of that mandate (unlike the household/supplier KPIs, this was not asked as its own tracked metric)
• The effekttariff gap identified in AFRY 2023 is confirmed here: demand charges create the right incentive but are not yet widespread

Consumer engagement strategies

Market actors report that consumer communication is a primary challenge:

• Technical product descriptions are a barrier — consumers don’t understand what timprisavtal or flexibility services actually mean
• Financial savings are the only reliably effective communication angle
• Environmental framing has limited effect at the point of product choice (consistent with IVL 2023’s moral attributes finding)

Regulatory views from market actors

Key regulatory asks confirmed by the market actor survey:

• Standardised metering data access (hub) — reduces per-DSO IT integration costs
• Clear aggregator role definition in law
• Simplified contract structures for flexibility services
• Stable long-term incentive signals (not just price spikes)

COM-B barrier analysis

Applying the COM-B model to the survey data, the report diagnoses the dominant barriers:

The most actionable finding is the opportunity gap: many consumers have the motivation and basic capability to act flexibly, but the market structure doesn’t offer them a simple path to do so. This points toward regulatory solutions (tariff reform, data access, standard contracts) over consumer education campaigns.

KPI framework

The report proposes a set of KPIs for tracking demand flexibility development over time. Grouped by COM-B component:

Capability KPIs:

• Consumer knowledge score (self-assessed understanding of timprisavtal)
• Awareness of flexibility services (% who know what aggregation is)

Opportunity KPIs:

• % DSOs with time-differentiated tariffs
• % suppliers offering timprisavtal
• % suppliers offering active control/aggregation services
• Timprisavtal adoption rate (by zone)

Motivation KPIs:

• Willingness to adjust consumption (self-reported)
• % reporting price as motivation for adjustment

Outcome KPIs:

• % flexible households (42% baseline)
• % connected to revenue-generating service (2.8% baseline)
• % of all households with price/load-adapted EV charging (8.6% baseline)
• Regional breakdown of timprisavtal (SE1: 4%, SE2: 14%, SE3: 15%, SE4: 18% baseline)

The intent is that these KPIs are re-measured periodically (suggested: every 1–2 years) to track whether the market is developing as policy intends.

Relation to IVL 2023

The Ramboll 2024 survey is the closest companion to Source - IVL Konsumentperspektiv Efterfrågeflexibilitet (2023). Both study Swedish household flexibility but differ in scope and timing:

The two studies are complementary: IVL provides the attitudinal depth and experimental findings; Ramboll provides the structured KPI baseline and zone-level data.

Relation to existing wiki content

• Swedish Household Demand Response — Consumer Adoption and Barriers: primary consumer of this report — the n=1,173 villa survey, the 42%→2.8% conversion gap, and the COM-B “Opportunity is the binding barrier” finding anchor that page
• Demand Response: Zone-level timprisavtal data (SE1 4% vs SE4 18%), COM-B framework, 42% behavioral vs 2.8% connected split, EV charging 8.6%
• Flexibility Market: 21% DSO time-differentiated tariffs, 84% supplier timprisavtal — updated supply-side baseline
• Aggregation: 2.8% connected to revenue service; market actor views on barriers
• Vehicle-to-Grid: 8.6% smart charging penetration; V2G potential noted as near-future
• Elmarknadshubb: Standardised data access as top market actor ask; 21% DSO tariff fragmentation as structural barrier motivating DHV

Data gaps

• Whether Ei has re-run these KPIs since January 2024 — the report proposes periodic re-measurement (and names Energimyndigheten as a possible future statistics-collection partner), but no follow-up survey is known to exist yet