Source - Ramboll Nyckeltal Hushålls Efterfrågeflexibilitet (2024)

Consultant report commissioned by Energimyndigheten. Ramboll Sweden AB, January 2024. Establishes a KPI framework and baseline measurements for tracking the development of household demand flexibility in Sweden, using COM-B behavioral model analysis and a two-strand survey (n=1,173 villa households + n=175 market actors).

Bibliographic details

• Title: Nyckeltal för att följa utvecklingen av hushålls efterfrågeflexibilitet
• Author/consultant: Ramboll Sweden AB
• Commissioning body: Energimyndigheten (Swedish Energy Agency)
• Date: January 2024
• Length: ~100 pages
• Context: Companion study to the AFRY 2023 market mapping; Ramboll provides the measurement framework, AFRY the service landscape

Scope and method

Two primary research strands:

Household survey (n=1,173 villa households): Online panel, quota sampled to be representative of Swedish villa households by age and region. The focus on villa (detached house) owners is deliberate — these are the households with the broadest DER base (heat pumps, potentially EVs and solar). Apartment dwellers are not in scope. Conducted late 2023.

Market actor survey (n=175 actors): Electricity suppliers, DSOs, and other market actors. Covers their current offerings, planned developments, consumer engagement strategies, and views on regulatory barriers.

Analytical framework: The COM-B behavioral model (West & Michie) structures both KPI design and barrier analysis. COM-B holds that behavior (B) requires three simultaneous conditions:

• C — Capability: the consumer has the knowledge and skills to act
• O — Opportunity: the context enables the behavior (financial, physical, regulatory)
• M — Motivation: the consumer wants to act (reflective goals and automatic/habitual responses)

This framework shapes which KPIs are tracked (not just outcomes, but enabling conditions) and why certain barriers are prioritised.

Key KPI findings — household survey

Timprisavtal (hourly pricing contract) adoption

• Overall: 15% of villa households have a timprisavtal
• SE1 (north Sweden): 4% — extremely low
• SE4 (south Sweden, Malmö region): 18% — highest penetration
• SE2 and SE3: intermediate values (exact figures in report tables)
• Planning to switch to timprisavtal: additional ~5–8% across zones; intent outpaces adoption

The zone variation is interpreted as partly driven by historical price volatility — SE4, which experienced more price extremes, has higher consumer motivation to engage with hourly pricing. SE1’s low penetration reflects low average prices making the financial upside smaller.

Flexible households

• 42% of villa households report being flexible — meaning they consciously adjust consumption at some times in response to price or grid signals
• This is a self-reported behavioral measure, not a contract or device measure
• Most of this flexibility is manual and habitual (shifting dish-washer to night, reducing sauna use) — not automated and not connected to any service
• Only a small fraction of the 42% are enrolled in any formal flexibility service

Connection to revenue-generating flexibility services

• 2.8% of villa households are connected to a revenue-generating flexibility service (aggregation, FSP, or market platform)
• This is the metric closest to “active market participation” — it captures households actually earning money from their flexibility
• The gap between 42% (behavioral flexibility) and 2.8% (market participation) illustrates the conversion problem: households are willing but not connected

DSO tariff structures

• 21% of DSOs have a time-differentiated network tariff (e.g., higher grid charges during peak hours)
• 84% of suppliers offer a timprisavtal product to customers
• The supplier-DSO asymmetry reflects the faster competitive response on the supply side vs the regulated, cost-recovery logic on the network side

EV charging behaviour

• 8.6% of villa households with an EV report adapting their charging to electricity prices (smart charging or scheduled charging)
• This is low relative to the 15% timprisavtal rate — even among the most price-exposed consumers (EV owners on hourly tariffs), most are not yet optimising charging
• Interpreted as a technology-readiness gap: EVs are there, smart charging infrastructure is lagging

Key findings — market actor survey

Supplier offerings

• 84% of suppliers offer timprisavtal — near-universal on the supply side
• Most suppliers also offer some form of energy management advice (budget tools, consumption dashboards)
• Control services (direct automation, market aggregation) are offered by a much smaller share

DSO tariff development

• 21% of DSOs already have time-differentiated network tariffs
• 38% of DSOs are planning or considering demand charge structures (effekttariff — peak power charges)
• The effekttariff gap identified in AFRY 2023 is confirmed here: demand charges create the right incentive but are not yet widespread

Consumer engagement strategies

Market actors report that consumer communication is a primary challenge:

• Technical product descriptions are a barrier — consumers don’t understand what timprisavtal or flexibility services actually mean
• Financial savings are the only reliably effective communication angle
• Environmental framing has limited effect at the point of product choice (consistent with IVL 2023’s moral attributes finding)

Regulatory views from market actors

Key regulatory asks confirmed by the market actor survey:

• Standardised metering data access (hub) — reduces per-DSO IT integration costs
• Clear aggregator role definition in law
• Simplified contract structures for flexibility services
• Stable long-term incentive signals (not just price spikes)

COM-B barrier analysis

Applying the COM-B model to the survey data, the report diagnoses the dominant barriers:

The most actionable finding is the opportunity gap: many consumers have the motivation and basic capability to act flexibly, but the market structure doesn’t offer them a simple path to do so. This points toward regulatory solutions (tariff reform, data access, standard contracts) over consumer education campaigns.

KPI framework

The report proposes a set of KPIs for tracking demand flexibility development over time. Grouped by COM-B component:

Capability KPIs:

• Consumer knowledge score (self-assessed understanding of timprisavtal)
• Awareness of flexibility services (% who know what aggregation is)

Opportunity KPIs:

• % DSOs with time-differentiated tariffs
• % suppliers offering timprisavtal
• % suppliers offering active control/aggregation services
• Timprisavtal adoption rate (by zone)

Motivation KPIs:

• Willingness to adjust consumption (self-reported)
• % reporting price as motivation for adjustment

Outcome KPIs:

• % flexible households (42% baseline)
• % connected to revenue-generating service (2.8% baseline)
• % with smart-controlled EV charging (8.6% baseline)
• Regional breakdown of timprisavtal (SE1: 4%, SE4: 18% baseline)

The intent is that these KPIs are re-measured periodically (suggested: every 1–2 years) to track whether the market is developing as policy intends.

Relation to IVL 2023

The Ramboll 2024 survey is the closest companion to Source - IVL Konsumentperspektiv Efterfrågeflexibilitet (2023). Both study Swedish household flexibility but differ in scope and timing:

The two studies are complementary: IVL provides the attitudinal depth and experimental findings; Ramboll provides the structured KPI baseline and zone-level data.

Relation to existing wiki content

• Demand Response: Zone-level timprisavtal data (SE1 4% vs SE4 18%), COM-B framework, 42% behavioral vs 2.8% connected split, EV charging 8.6%
• Flexibility Market: 21% DSO time-differentiated tariffs, 84% supplier timprisavtal, 38% DSOs planning demand charges — updated supply-side baseline
• Aggregation: 2.8% connected to revenue service; 38% DSOs planning effekttariff (creates aggregation opportunity); market actor views on barriers
• Vehicle-to-Grid: 8.6% smart charging penetration; V2G potential noted as near-future
• Elmarknadshubb: Standardised data access as top market actor ask; 21% DSO tariff fragmentation as structural barrier motivating DHV

Data gaps

• Zone-level data for SE2 and SE3 (only SE1 and SE4 reported in summary; full tables in report)
• Whether Energimyndigheten has re-run these KPIs since January 2024 — the report proposes periodic re-measurement but no follow-up survey is known to exist yet
• Apartment household flexibility — deliberately excluded from this study; no comparable baseline exists for apartment dwellers