Source - Skånes Effektkommission Flexibilitetsbehov Metod (2026)

Title: Metod och vägledning för bedömning av flexibilitetsbehov Published by: Skånes Effektkommission (working group on network flexibility) Authors/project owners: E.ON Energidistribution, Kraftringen Nät, Öresundskraft Elnät Type: Methodology guidance document (~15 pages) Source file: raw/metod-och-vagledning-for-bedomning-av-flexibilitetsbehov.pdf

Purpose and scope

A practical guide for DSOs to assess and report their flexibility needs, usable for both NUP (nätutvecklingsplaner / DNDP) and FNA (Flexibility Needs Assessment methodology). Produced by three Skåne-based DSOs working within the Effektkommission’s “Flexibilitet nät” working group.

The guide is explicitly calibrated to minimum reporting requirements but also shows how extended analysis can be performed. It is designed for radial grid networks.

Legal context: Since 2024, all DSOs holding a local or regional grid must produce NUPs biennially. From 2026, all DSOs must assess and report flexibility needs per the FNA methodology. The guide explicitly links the two obligations and emphasises that FNA and NUP flexibility assessments must be integrated into long-term grid planning.

Definition

Flexibility need (flexibilitetsbehov) is defined as: the need to change or limit customers’ injection or withdrawal of electricity in order to keep grid assets loaded within given capacity limits.

For FNA reporting, the flexibility need is expressed as: maximum flexible power [MW] that must be available to ensure all grid components remain within the DSO’s operational transfer limits, given:

• Forecast customer load at the target year (most likely scenario)
• Planned grid investments at the target year

Must be reported per: season (årstid), direction (behovsriktning: up/down), and reason (skäl).

Four-step method

Step 1 — Define baseline (nulägesdefinition)

Purpose: establish a robust reference point on which forecasts and planned grid investments can be built.

Three sub-steps:

1. Define boundaries — list all network points/components to analyse. Can be all border points and distribution stations, or only those where capacity constraints are expected.
2. Data collection — 3–5 years of historical hourly load data at all selected points. Account for network restructuring and changes in operational modes. Where metering is absent, aggregate customer meter data. If no representative time series exists, use historical peak loads.
3. Define the dimensioning basis — either: (a) select the dimensioning peak and valley (maximum and minimum values from historical data); or (b) use a full hourly time series where point-specific time series data is available. The full time series approach is needed for complete seasonal/directional/reason reporting.

Step 2 — Define forecast (prognosdefinition)

Purpose: estimate future load at the target year (2030 or 2035) based on additional installations.

Two sub-steps:

1. Identify additional installations — new customers in connection queue, electrification of existing customers (EV charging, heat pumps), new production (solar, wind, batteries).
2. Estimate the effect — for each installation type, apply standard factors from the Energiforsk lathund (reference table) or actual metered data:

Standard demand factors from Energiforsk lathund:

EV charging worked example: 15% EV penetration in 2024 → 40% by 2030. For a feeder serving 200 households: 15% × 200 = 30 EVs today (each ~7 kW smart charger) → 40% × 200 = 80 EVs by 2030. Impact: +50 × 7 kW = +350 kW on the feeder.

Solar PV worked example: 13% solar penetration today → 25% by 2030. Average installation 18 kW. For a feeder serving 200 households: +24 × 18 kW = +432 kW downward production at peak solar hours.

3. Integrate with baseline — combine the additional installation estimates with the baseline to form a forecast time series for the target year. The forecast represents the most likely scenario.

Step 3 — Define capacity constraints (kapacitetsbegränsning)

Purpose: establish the binding constraints against which the forecast will be compared.

Two constraint types:

1. N-1 technical capacity — the maximum load that can be carried while remaining N-1-safe (all transformers, lines, cables). Defined by the DSO per network component. Flexibility for N-1 contingencies (where customers remain energised) must be included.
2. Subscription capacity to overlying grid (abonnemangsgräns mot överliggande nät) — the allocated connection capacity from the regionnät or Svk at the target year. The overlying grid operator communicates an indicative capacity assessment for the target year.

Exclusions allowed:

• Voltage constraints may be excluded (separate methodology not yet standardised)
• Low-voltage (0.4 kV) network may be excluded
• Physical space constraints may be excluded

Planned investments: must include both existing network and investments expected to be in service at the target year. Do not include investments whose implementation is uncertain.

Double-counting rule: lokalnät must clearly report which flexibility need arises from constraints in the own network vs. constraints in the overlying network (subscription limit). These must be reported separately to avoid double-counting in the national FNA aggregation.

Step 4 — Identify flexibility need (identifiering av flexibilitetsbehov)

Purpose: compare forecast against binding constraints; quantify the gap as the flexibility need.

The flexibility need at each network point = max(0, forecast_load − binding_constraint).

Directional reporting:

• Up-regulation (uppreglering): need to reduce customer withdrawal or increase injection → constraint from too much demand
• Down-regulation (nedreglering): need to increase customer withdrawal or reduce injection → constraint from too much production/injection

Aggregation: sum results across all network points per season and direction. Report per reason (N-1 technical, or subscription constraint to overlying grid).

Output format: MW per season (winter/summer), per direction (up/down), per reason — consistent with the FNAM Tabell 15 template used for FNA reporting.

Key methodological choices

• Target years: 2030 and 2035 (mandatory per FNA 2026)
• Seasons: winter (Nov–Mar) and summer (mandatory); month optional
• Radial grid adaptation: the method is designed for radial networks (the standard for Swedish distribution grids); meshed or complex topologies require extended analysis
• Minimum vs extended: the guide presents minimum-requirements analysis throughout, with guidance on how extended analysis (e.g., full probabilistic time series) can be performed

Relevance to wiki

• Updates Flexibility Need Assessment › How DSOs calculate flexibility needs in practice with the Skåne four-step method and standard demand factors
• Provides the Energiforsk lathund demand factor table for the first time in the wiki
• Confirms reporting format (MW by season/direction/reason) that is required for both NUP and FNA
• The double-counting rule (own-grid vs superior-grid) is an important practical clarification not previously documented
• Produced by a Skåne Effektkommission working group — links to Skånes Effektkommission entity page