Flex›Source - Svk Reserver Framtida Volymbehov (2025)

Source - Svk Reserver Framtida Volymbehov (2025)

Svenska kraftnät — “Framtida volymbehov” (Future volume requirements). Web page published 2025-03-26. Part of the Aktörsportalen section “Behov av reserver nu och i framtiden.” Presents Svk’s official forward estimates of reserve volume needs for each balancing product through 2025–2030 (and 2035 for FFR), based on four LMA scenarios. Companion to the Source - Svk Balancing Market Outlook 2030 (2024) report.

Bibliographic details

Volume forecasts 2025–2030

FFR (Fast Frequency Reserve)

FFR dimensioning is based on forecasted inertia levels and the Nordic reference incident. As VRE penetration increases, hours with low inertia multiply — driving higher FFR need. The forecasted need varies greatly depending on the future Nordic production mix. Svk’s LMA (Långsiktig marknadsanalys) defines four scenarios:

ScenarioDescriptionFFR need 2035 (GWh)
EF — Electrification renewablesDecommission nuclear, build renewables20
EP — Electrification plannableExtend existing + build new nuclear~1
FM — MixedExtend existing nuclear33
SF — Small-scale renewablesDecommission nuclear, build distributed renewables48

The range from near-0 (EP) to 48 GWh (SF) by 2035 “shows large uncertainties in forecasting FFR need during the ongoing energy transition.”

FCR-D upward

Dimensioning based on Oskarshamn 3 (1,450 MW) as the Nordic reference incident; assumed unchanged through 2030. Any changes within 2025–2030 will primarily depend on the FCR sharing key between Nordic TSOs.

Year202520262027202820292030
Estimated need (MW)542542542542542542

FCR-D downward

Dimensioning based on 1,400 MW (full export on either Nordlink or North Sea Link); assumed unchanged through 2030.

Year202520262027202820292030
Estimated need (MW)524524524524524524

FCR-N

The Nordic FCR-N requirement of 600 MW has been stable. Assumed unchanged through 2030, though a Nordic re-evaluation of future FCR-N dimensioning is ongoing. The future need will depend on the dimensioning and activation of FRR products (a dependency not included in the current estimate).

Year202520262027202820292030
Estimated need (MW)224224224224224224

aFRR (up and down)

Demand expected to increase significantly, driven by:

  1. Launch of automated mFRR EAM (15-min resolution, Q1 2025) — larger safety margin for aFRR needed at launch
  2. Planned connection to PICASSO → shift to ACE-based aFRR per bidding zone (instead of frequency quality) → further volume increase
Year202520262027202820292030
aFRR up — Estimate (MW)150230270290300300
aFRR up — Range120–200160–320160–380160–400160–400160–400
aFRR down — Estimate (MW)150230270290300300
aFRR down — Range120–200160–320160–380160–400160–400160–400

The volume of aFRR energy bids to be secured via the capacity market is not yet known, as it depends on availability of voluntary energy activation bids.

mFRR (up and down)

Capacity demand generally matches FRR dimensioning volume requirements. The mFRR capacity market (launched Oct 2023) has been gradually increased during 2024 to prepare for mFRR EAM launch. Demand expected to grow further under ACE-based balancing and with connection to MARI.

Year202520262027202820292030
mFRR up — Estimate (MW)8001,4001,4001,4001,4001,400
mFRR up — Range580–1,3001,100–1,8501,100–1,8501,100–1,8501,100–1,8501,100–1,850
mFRR down — Estimate (MW)9901,1501,1501,1501,1501,150
mFRR down — Range920–1,050950–1,400950–1,400950–1,400950–1,400950–1,400

Relation to existing wiki content