Svk Reserver Framtida Volymbehov (2025)

Svenska kraftnät — “Framtida volymbehov” (Future volume requirements). Web page published 2025-03-26. Part of the Aktörsportalen section “Behov av reserver nu och i framtiden.” Presents Svk’s official forward estimates of reserve volume needs for each balancing product through 2025–2030 (and 2035 for FFR), based on four LMA scenarios. Companion to the Source - Svk Balancing Market Outlook 2030 (2024) report.

Volume forecasts 2025–2030

FFR (Fast Frequency Reserve)

FFR dimensioning is based on forecasted inertia levels and the Nordic reference incident. As VRE penetration increases, hours with low inertia multiply — driving higher FFR need. The forecasted need varies greatly depending on the future Nordic production mix. Svk’s LMA (Långsiktig marknadsanalys) defines four scenarios:

(The clipping gives only the scenario codes; their expansions are not stated on the page.)

Svk notes a significant difference between EP and SF, where the need varies from close to 0 to 2.5 times today’s level, which it says shows large uncertainties in forecasting FFR need during the energy transition. (The 2035 figures in the table are in GWh; the 0-to-2.5x comparison is Svk’s own framing.)

FCR-D upward

Dimensioning based on Oskarshamn 3 (1,450 MW) as the Nordic reference incident; assumed unchanged through 2030, though this could change if large new production units are built. Svk’s share of the Nordic volume is set by a sharing key based on annual production (TWh) and consumption (TWh) per control area; minor changes in the Swedish need over the next five years would primarily depend on that key.

FCR-D downward

Dimensioning based on 1,400 MW (full export on either Nordlink or North Sea Link); assumed unchanged through 2030, though it could change if new interconnectors are built. As for FCR-D up, minor changes would depend mainly on the Nordic sharing key.

FCR-N

FCR-N is dimensioned on historical imbalances in the Nordic synchronous area; the Nordic requirement of 600 MW has been stable in recent years. Assumed unchanged through 2030, though a Nordic re-evaluation of future FCR-N dimensioning is ongoing. The future need will depend on the dimensioning and activation of FRR products (a dependency not included in the current estimate).

aFRR (up and down)

Demand expected to increase significantly, driven by:

1. Launch of automated mFRR EAM (15-min resolution, Q1 2025) — larger safety margin for aFRR needed at launch
2. Planned connection to PICASSO → shift to ACE-based aFRR per bidding zone (instead of frequency quality) → further volume increase

Svk cautions that the future need is uncertain (15-min MTU, ACE-based mFRR balancing, flow-based capacity allocation; PICASSO also brings an aFRR energy activation market), while assuming demand rises to an overall 160–400 MW. The volume of aFRR energy bids to be secured via the capacity market is not yet known, as it depends on availability of voluntary energy activation bids.

mFRR (up and down)

Capacity demand generally matches FRR dimensioning volume requirements. The mFRR capacity procurement was gradually increased during 2024 to prepare for the expected need at mFRR EAM start and to support current needs for locally available balancing capacity. Demand expected to grow further under ACE-based balancing and with connection to MARI.

Relation to existing wiki content

• Swedish Balancing Market Prices and Volumes › Projections to 2030: This is the primary source for the 2025–2030 volume table
• Nordic Balancing Model: PICASSO and ACE-based aFRR are key drivers of the aFRR volume growth forecast
• Svenska kraftnät: Issuing body; these are Svk’s official forward estimates for procurement planning