Source - Ei PM2025:03 DNDP Sammanställning (2025)
Title: Sammanställning av innehållet i distributionsnätsföretagens nätutvecklingsplaner Reference: Ei PM2025:03 Publisher: Energimarknadsinspektionen (Ei) Authors: Anna Haraldsson, Jenny Radkova, Lisa Weegar, Maria Dalheim, Matilda Noblia, Natalia Herasymchuk Published: 13 March 2025 Date captured: 2026-04-12 Language: Swedish
Ei’s official synthesis of the first round of Swedish DNDP submissions. Based on 152 DNDPs received by 31 January 2025 out of 155 total eventually submitted. The report summarizes capacity forecasts, investment plans, flexibility needs, and adequacy assessments across the Swedish DSO landscape — providing the first system-wide view of Swedish distribution grid development plans. The data in this source is the primary origin of the aggregate flexibility need numbers widely cited elsewhere (e.g., in Source - FlexAbility Delrapport 1 (2025)).
Key claims
Coverage and company categories
Total DNDPs reviewed: 152 (as of 31 January 2025). By publication date (13 March 2025): 155 submitted. 11 companies had not yet submitted or had submitted without a consultation report at time of analysis; Ei had requested the missing documents.
Ei categorized companies by size:
| Category | Customers | Number of companies | Total customers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Small | <10,000 | 61 | 318,300 |
| Medium | 10,000–100,000 | 70 | 1,884,400 |
| Large | >100,000 | 6 | 3,432,500 |
| Production networks | — | 15 | 1,508 |
Four companies have networks spanning multiple elområden and are reported separately throughout: Vattenfall Eldistribution, E.ON Energidistribution, Ellevio, and Skellefteå Kraft Elnät. These four represent approximately 50% of all Swedish customers.
Capacity forecasts (§2.1)
- ~90% of companies forecast increased capacity needs over 2025–2034; together they serve ~100% of Swedish customers
- 100% of large companies report growth
- ~10% (mostly production networks) forecast stable needs
Top growth drivers cited (by frequency):
| Factor | Share of companies | Share of customers |
|---|---|---|
| EV charging (hemmaladdning, snabbladdning, heavy transport) | ~60% | ~90% |
| Punctual loads (industry, data centers) | ~50% | ~85% |
| Production installations | ~35% | ~70% |
| Civic growth (borgerlig tillväxt) | ~30% | ~50% |
| Energy storage | ~20% | ~45% |
~40 companies explicitly used Energiforsk’s load forecast method guide (2024:1006) as their methodology basis. ~80% had some form of dialogue with municipalities, regioners, or länsstyrelser. Most frequently referenced external plans: municipal oversiktsplaner, Energimyndigheten scenarios, Svk’s Systemutvecklingsplan, and regional energy plans (notably Region Skåne’s Färdplan 2030).
Capacity constraints and investments (§2.2)
- ~60% of companies describe current or expected constraints requiring capacity action — together they serve ~90% of customers
- ~30% say current capacity is sufficient to meet forecast
- 100% of large companies report needing capacity-raising actions
Investment choices:
- ~2/3 currently investing in grid expansion/reinforcement
- ~65% considered non-grid alternatives; ~55% considered something other than effekttariffer
- Small companies least likely to consider alternatives; all large companies have
Main reasons cited for not using flex alternatives: no need assessed; flex can’t replace certain investments; lack of analysis capacity; insufficient competence. Some companies explicitly stated they are investigating flex options.
Flexibility services — current use and projected need (§2.3)
Current use (who uses flexibility services today):
| Category | Share using flex services |
|---|---|
| Small | ~10% |
| Medium | ~20% |
| Large | 100% |
| Production networks | 0% |
| All companies | ~20% |
The 20% of companies currently using flex services represent ~70% of Swedish customers — dominated by the large and medium-large segment.
Projected flex need 2025–2034 (Tabell 7 — companies reporting combined consumption+production need):
| Horizon | Total MW range |
|---|---|
| 0–2 yr | 277–1,030 |
| 3–5 yr | 640–1,883 |
| 6–10 yr | 1,387–2,523 |
Based on 122–127 companies; represents ~60% of Swedish customers. Two large companies are excluded (they separated consumption and production).
Three companies reporting separately by direction (Tabell 8) — approximately 20% of Swedish customers:
| Direction | 0–2 yr (MW) | 3–5 yr (MW) | 6–10 yr (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption | 301–346 | 821–1,092 | 0–1,688 |
| Production | 2,462–2,572 | 2,110–2,550 | 6–2,948 |
Note: these three companies are not individually identified in the report. The very large production figures (2.4–2.6 GW in 0–2yr) reflect DSOs with significant renewable generation in their networks.
Flex tool mix (among companies mentioning tools):
- ~40% mention villkorade avtal or bilateral agreements
- ~20% use or plan battery storage
- ~15% considering creating or participating in a flexibility market
- ~40% mention effekttariffer (though these are mandatory for all by Jan 2027)
- 5 companies reported using omdirigering (redirection) in 2023
Gap in quantification: ~45% of companies quantified a non-zero flex need in MW; ~40% said no flex need; remainder gave no information or unclear information.
Adequacy assessment (§2.4)
- >80% of companies say planned actions (investments + flex) will be sufficient for their own grid — but these represent only ~55% of customers (larger companies are more likely to have residual gaps)
- ~50% flag overlying network constraints as a potential barrier — representing ~80% of customers
- Large company pattern: ~80% flag overlying constraint risk (all four multi-area companies do)
- All elområden (SE1–SE4) contain companies flagging overlying constraint risk
Ei’s forward-looking agenda (§3)
Map tool: Ei is developing a map-based visualization of DNDP content (mandated by government regleringsbrev 2024). Phase 1 (how to visualize) was reported August 2024; Phase 2 (IT development) due 31 August 2025.
Standardized reporting: Ei has proposed to the government that the förordning om elnätsverksamhet be amended to give Ei bemyndigande (authority) to prescribe standardized structured data reporting for DNDPs. Currently lacks this authority. Without it, aggregation and visualization are limited by inconsistency in format and detail.
Supervision: Ei will conduct tillsyn (oversight) of DNDP compliance during 2025 — covering both whether companies submitted plans and whether content meets EIFS 2024:1 requirements (including consultation).
Next cycle: All companies must submit their next DNDP by 31 December 2026 (starting the 2027–2036 planning period).
Methodological limitations
Ei explicitly acknowledges significant limitations of this synthesis:
- Companies used different reference years for historical comparison (no standardization)
- Some report accumulated total need; others report only incremental annual need — not comparable
- Not all companies account for sammanlagringseffekter (load diversity/coincidence factors)
- “Considerable uncertainty interval” in all aggregated numbers
- A more complete quantitative synthesis requires standardized digital reporting
These limitations reinforce why Ei is seeking bemyndigande for structured reporting and why the FNA 2026 FNAM methodology (ACER Decision 05-2025) was designed to standardize across DSOs.
Relevance to existing wiki topics
| Topic | New information |
|---|---|
| Distribution Network Development Plan | Primary Ei synthesis of first DNDP cycle; confirms aggregate patterns; fills data gap for EIFS monitoring; Ei tillsyn 2025 and next cycle 2026 confirmed; map tool in development |
| Flexibility Need Assessment | Primary source for the 277–1,030/640–1,883/1,387–2,523 MW aggregate numbers cited across the wiki; the three-company direction-separated data (Tabell 8) is also sourced here |
| Flexibility Market | ~15% of DSOs considering flex market participation; 5 companies used omdirigering in 2023 |
| Villkorade Avtal | ~40% of DSOs mention villkorade avtal as tool — corroborates wiki’s description of it as the most widespread Swedish flex instrument |
| Ei | Confirms Ei’s DNDP supervision role and timeline; bemyndigande proposal; map tool under development; next DNDP cycle |