Source - Ellevio Nätutvecklingsplan 2025-2034

Title: Nätutvecklingsplan 2025–2034 Publisher: Ellevio AB Document type: Distribution Network Development Plan (DNDP / nätutvecklingsplan) — mandatory under Directive 2019/944 Art. 32(3) and Swedish EIFS 2024:1 Organisation number: 556037-7326 Contact: natutvecklingsplaner@ellevio.se Published: 2024 (final version; preliminary published 13 September 2024 for consultation) Date captured: 2026-04-12 Language: Swedish

Ellevio’s first mandatory DNDP under Ei’s EIFS 2024:1 framework. Covers the full Ellevio network — 17 delområden (sub-areas) spanning both regionnät and lokalnät — for the period 2025–2034. The document is structured per Ei’s template: company overview (§1), capacity forecasts (§2), investments and flexibility needs (§3), adequacy assessment (§4), consultation summary (§5). Bilaga A covers omdirigering (redirection); Bilaga B is the consultation report (Source - Ellevio Bilaga B Samrådsredogörelse (2024)).

Key claims

Network overview

Ellevio owns and operates “drygt 8 360 mil elnät” — just over 8,360 Swedish mil (≈83,600 km) across both regionnät and lokalnät. The network is divided into 17 delområden:

Delområde 7 (Stockholm) alone serves approximately 500,000 customers — roughly half of Ellevio’s total customer base.

Overlying network connectivity (gränspunkter to overliggande nät):

• Stockholm: 5 gränspunkter directly to Svk’s stamnät at 220 kV; Ellevio’s regionnät consists of 220 kV → 110 kV → 33 kV; local grid at 10 kV
• Hälsingland: 5 gränspunkter to Svk (Ljusdal, Dönje, Söderala, Ockelbo at 220 kV; Grönviken 400/130 kV wind injection)
• Dalarna: 3 gränspunkter to Svk’s stamnät (Repbäcken, Horndal, Stackbo); also connects to 130 kV meshed network
• Värmland: Direct Svk connection at Lindbacka stamstation; also connected via Vattenfall at Borgvik
• Laforsen, Tovåsen, Torpberget, Olingan: direct Svk gränspunkter (wind/hydro production clusters)
• Most other delområden (Halland, Orust-Tjörn, Norra Bohuslän, Skaraborg, Nynäshamn, Ekerö, Lidingö, Täby, Vallentuna): overlying network is Vattenfall Eldistribution’s regionnät

Forecast methodology

Ellevio’s forecast methodology (Scenario 1 = high-certainty; Scenario 2 = indicative):

• Historical load data from 2022 onwards, temperature-adjusted to dimensioning temperature
• Four forecast components: borgerlig last (residential/small commercial) growth, punktlaster (large discrete loads), EV home charging, and underlying DSO forecasts
• Municipal dialogue for borgerlig last: municipalities report planned developments (housing, commercial); converted to MW using schablons and SCB population projections
• Aligns with Energiforsk methodology (“Branschgemensamma verktyg för effektprognoser på lokalnätsnivå”)
• Validates against Energimyndigheten scenarios and Svk’s long-run market analysis

Acknowledged limitation: does not directly incorporate national energy system reports (MWh focus vs. MW/capacity focus needed for DNDP).

Consumption forecast 2025–2034 (Tabell 1, Scenario 1, in MW)

Skaraborg (+255%), Hälsingland (+174%), and Dalarna (+50%) show the most growth. Hälsingland’s jump is driven by data centers and hydrogen production. Skaraborg is dominated by large new industrial loads and solar parks. Tovåsen develops from zero consumption to 720 MW as electrification of the area grows around the wind cluster.

Production forecast 2025–2034 (Tabell 2, Scenario 1, in MW)

The northern production clusters (Tovåsen, Laforsen, Torpberget, Dalarna) reflect large-scale wind expansion. Halland and Skaraborg are dominated by solar park connections. Total Scenario 1 production across Ellevio’s network reaches approximately 8,500–9,000 MW by 2034.

Current flexibility tools in use

Ellevio identifies four tools currently used to handle capacity constraints as interim solutions before grid investments are complete (§2.3):

Villkorade avtal — Ellevio has signed conditional connection agreements with customers who can be asked to curtail consumption or reduce/increase production to prevent subscription limit overruns. Also used during N-1 faults.

Tillfälliga abonnemang (temporary subscriptions) — temporary raises in Ellevio’s own subscription against the overlying network, activated when short-term forecasts indicate the subscription will be exceeded. No guarantee this can always be arranged.

Effektabonnemang (capacity tariffs) — from 1 January 2025, Ellevio introduced capacity-based tariffs for households, summer cottages, and small businesses, incentivising load-shifting to lower-demand hours. All Swedish DSOs are required to implement effekttariffer for all customers by 1 January 2027.

Produktionsgaranti (production guarantee) — Ellevio has contracted agreements with large generation facilities within delområden. These guarantee a certain production volume that can be dispatched when load within the delområde risks exceeding Ellevio’s subscription limit against the overlying network.

Flexibility needs assessment (Tabell 3)

“Marknadsmässiga lösningar i dagsläget saknas i Ellevios delområden — villkorade avtal en passande lösning i samtliga delområden där det finns ett behov.” (Section 3.3.2) — No market-based flexibility solutions currently exist in any of Ellevio’s areas.

Tabell 3: Flexibility need in MW per delområde by horizon

* = indicative, based on current production levels; further requests in early stages could push higher.

Key patterns:

• Stockholm: No near-term need; up to 130 MW long-term depending on Svk’s “Stockholm Ström” and “Storstockholm Väst” packages (expected ~2031)
• Värmland: Growing consumption need (0→320 MW) plus persistent production management need (wind/hydro); overlying stamnät investment expected 2035
• Skaraborg: Enormous production management need (0→450 MW) driven by solar park boom; also growing consumption need from industry
• Dalarna: Existing production curtailment need (350 MW, 0–2yr) from hydro/wind that resolves as stamnät connections improve
• Hälsingland: No flex need — NordSyd program provides sufficient stamnät capacity
• Orust-Tjörn: Short/medium-term consumption need (20–40 MW) resolves long-term as investments build out

Adequacy assessment (§4)

Summary of Ellevio’s assessment of whether planned measures are sufficient and whether overlying network constraints remain:

The Stockholm-area cluster (Stockholm, Lidingö, Täby, Ekerö, Nynäshamn, Vallentuna) all share the same dependency on Svk’s “Stockholm Ström” and “Storstockholm Väst” investment packages, expected to complete around 2031.

Redirection (Bilaga A — 2022 data)

Ellevio’s redirection report for 2022 (the most recent at time of writing): 125 MWh total, 14 occasions in SE3.

• Hydropower downregulation: 120 MWh
• Demand response: 5 MWh
• All redirection was downward (nedreglering); no upward redirection

Ellevio’s self-assessment: “Marknaden är fortfarande för långsam” — the flex market (sthlmflex) was still under development in 2022 and not yet adequate for operational use. Non-market bilateral contracts with individual asset owners were used where market alternatives were absent (“saknas ofta marknadsbaserade alternativ i mellansverige”).

Consultation process (§5)

Preliminary DNDP published 13 September 2024. Written responses accepted via web form until 31 October 2024, with extension granted upon request. Alternative contact channels (email) also accepted. 41 responses received. See Source - Ellevio Bilaga B Samrådsredogörelse (2024) for full consultation summary.

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