Source - Effektprognoser Skåne Region Skåne (2025)
Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Title | Effektprognoser Skåne — Prognoser i ett kommunalt perspektiv |
| Publisher | Region Skåne |
| Date | December 2025 |
| Context | Part of Skånes Effektkommission work programme; municipal-level power demand forecasts |
| Portal | effektprognoser.se |
| Methodology | Energiforsk “Effektprognos — en lathund för lokalbolag (2024:1006)“ |
| Format | PDF; 33 municipal chapters + regional overview; data sourced from Power BI dashboards |
| File | raw/effektprognoser-rapport-final.pdf |
Summary
Power demand (effektbehov) forecasts for all 33 Skåne municipalities covering the period 2022–2040, produced by Region Skåne as part of the Effektkommission programme. The report provides the regional-level demand context underpinning the DNDP and FNA work of Skåne’s grid companies.
Methodology: Energiforsk “Effektprognos — en lathund för lokalbolag (2024:1006)” — the same industry-standard tool referenced in multiple Skåne DSO NUPs and in the Source - Skånes Effektkommission Flexibilitetsbehov Metod (2026). Top-down sector breakdown combined with municipality-level land-use and population scenario inputs.
Key findings
Skåne-wide demand outlook (2022–2040)
| Sector | Power demand change | Electricity demand change |
|---|---|---|
| Total Skåne | +40% | +30% |
| Residential | −1.5% | −4% |
| Industry & construction | +41% | +45% |
| Services (private + public) | +17% | +18% |
| Transport | ×16 (1,500%+) | ×22 (2,100%+) |
| Agriculture / forestry / fishing | ~unchanged | ~unchanged |
Transport is the dominant driver by a large margin in both absolute MW and percentage terms. The scale (×16 power) reflects full electrification of Skåne’s vehicle fleet including heavy transport along major E-road corridors (E6, E20, E22, E65). Agriculture/forestry/fishing is excluded from the main municipal analysis due to high uncertainty about electrification pathway (machinery, gas vs electric).
Residential demand declines despite population growth (+69,000 inhabitants 2024–2033), because new buildings are significantly more energy-efficient and renovation rates reduce peak demand in existing stock.
Municipal highlights (2022→2040)
| Municipality | Power change | Electricity change | Primary driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burlöv | +77% | +94% | Industrial green transition + E6/E20/E22 charging |
| Bjuv | +54% | +47% | Industrial green transition (Saint-Gobain, Bruks Siwertell) |
| Bromölla | +48% | +45% | Industrial (K-G Paulsson, Sylvamo, CGI) |
| Eslöv | +47% | +54% | Industrial + E22 corridor charging (Orkla Foods, Nordic Sugar) |
| Båstad | +17% | +6% | Transport electrification; residential efficiency reduces base load |
Municipalities with concentrated motorway corridors (Burlöv at E6/E20/E22, Eslöv at E22) show above-average transport-driven growth. Industrial municipalities vary by green transition trajectory.
Data caveat
The report notes that peak power demand figures cannot be simply aggregated across municipalities to produce a Skåne total, because peak hours differ across municipalities. Sector-level electricity demand figures (MWh) are additive regardless. The regional total power figures (+40%) are modelled directly, not summed from individual municipalities.
Significance for the wiki
- Demand context for Skåne DSO NUPs: confirms that the 2025–2034 DNDP investment wave is demand-justified — the municipalities with the largest DSO capacity increases (Burlöv, Bjuv, Bromölla, Eslöv) align with the highest power demand growth forecasts
- Transport as the structural wildcard: the ×16 transport multiplier is more extreme than generic national electrification scenarios; heavy charging along E6 and E65 is consistent with concentrated capacity needs reported by E.ON, Öresundskraft, and Trelleborgs Elnät along those corridors
- Energiforsk lathund confirmed as regional standard: the same tool is used by Region Skåne for municipal-level forecasts and by multiple Skåne DSOs for their NUP forecasting — showing methodological consistency up the planning chain
- Effektprognoser.se: online portal providing municipal-level data access; new digital planning tool
Related pages
- Skånes Effektkommission — project owner; this is a key Effektkommission publication
- Distribution Network Development Plan — regional demand forecast feeds into DSO NUP capacity planning
- Flexibility Need Assessment — demand forecast is the upstream input to flexibility need quantification
- Source - Nätutvecklingsplaner i Skåne 2025-2034 Region Skåne (2025) — companion synthesis document covering DSO responses to this demand growth
- Source - Skånes Effektkommission Flexibilitetsbehov Metod (2026) — uses same Energiforsk lathund methodology