Svk KMA2025 Kortsiktig Marknadsanalys

Svenska kraftnät’s short-term market analysis for the analysis years 2026–2030, published as a slide deck dated March 2026. KMA is a fundamental Nordic electricity-market simulation of how prices, flows and production follow from supply, demand and physical constraints, used as support for Svk’s internal planning. Svk states explicitly that it is not a forecast (“Det är ingen prognos”); it is a planning tool based on known plans and decisions.

Methodology

• Model: EMPS/Samnett, with a detailed hydropower description and flow-based capacity calculation (FB)
• Weather: each analysis year is simulated for 35 historical weather years
• Scope: the synchronous Nordic system plus the Baltics; trade with the continent (DE, NL, PL) and GB is modelled through exogenous hourly price series (not balanced by the model); Finland and the Baltics appear as exogenous price areas in the area map
• Installed capacity (Sweden): hydro and nuclear constant; other thermal broadly unchanged; onshore wind about +7%/yr; no new offshore projects; solar about +10%/yr
• Demand basis: connection list plus energy analysis, direct company contacts, news reporting, consultation material, and some Energimyndigheten forecasts/scenarios. KMA deliberately uses a challenging/high-demand approach for planning purposes
• Fuel/ETS prices: forward prices (Montel). Versus KMA2024, EU-ETS and gas prices are higher and coal lower; over the period EU-ETS rises, coal is flat, gas falls

Key findings

Demand pushed back and revised down

Demand is “skjuts 1 år på framtiden” (pushed one year into the future) versus the previous KMA. Swedish demand assumption 2026–2030: 137, 142, 153, 164, 177 TWh. Revisions versus previous KMA (TWh): Sweden −5 (2026), −10 (2027), −12 (2028), −12 (2029); Norway −4/−3/−3/−3; Finland −6/−9/−11/−9; Denmark −4/−6/−12/−17. Drivers named: industry (postponements, changed scope, build times), hydrogen postponed, transport demand postponed (Trafa/StEM), more data-centre projects included, housing and services from StEM forecast/scenario. The Nordic revision is “particularly clear in Sweden and Denmark”, and Danish assumptions move from target-fulfilling scenarios to more realistic projections. It remains a challenging (high-demand) scenario.

Energy balance

• The Nordics remain net exporters annually, but the surplus falls from 53 to 29 TWh (2026 to 2030); some weather years give a deficit. Wind and solar share of Nordic production rises from 32% to 43%
• Sweden stays net exporter throughout; mean surplus falls from 34 TWh (2026) to 12 TWh (2030), as production does not grow as fast as demand. Swedish import volumes rise by about 7 TWh
• SE1 goes from net exporter to net importer: mean surplus falls from 14 TWh (2026) to −1 TWh (2030)

Prices and volatility

• Prices in northern Sweden rise continually (smaller SE1 surplus); southern Swedish prices fall in 2027 (lower continental prices) then rise as the SE3/SE4 balance weakens
• Prices equalise between north and south: weekly SE1 prices exceed SE2 for several weeks during the period; in 2026 and 2030 SE2 has the higher annual mean price yet net flow still runs southward (non-intuitive flows on snitt 1)
• More volatility: all Swedish zones see more hours above 100 EUR/MWh, while low-price hours rise slightly. The model cannot represent negative prices directly; low prices are the proxy
• Price differences SE2–SE3 and SE3–SE4 decrease over the period (explained by added SE2–SE3 capacity, +800 MW in the grid plan, and higher northern prices); SE1–Finland and SE–DK differences also narrow. Price difference to the continent shrinks as continental prices set the price in more hours

Trade flows and bottlenecks

• Net energy flows fall but power levels in both import and export directions rise; more northbound flow over snitt 1 (SE1–SE2) and snitt 4 (SE3–SE4); snitt 2 (SE2–SE3) runs almost only southward. P95 export power: SE2–SE3 7,202 MW (2026) to 8,088 MW (2030); SE3–SE4 3,629 to 4,005 MW
• Bottlenecks on limiting network elements fall 62% from 2026 to 2030: “stora begränsningar byggs bort”. Elements inside SE3 bind more in 2026–2028, elements inside SE2 and SE1 more in 2029–2030. Binding foreign cuts: SE1–NO4, SE1–FI, SE2–NO4, SE3–NO1. Svk’s conclusion: grid planning keeps good pace with market development, though limitations and reinforcement needs remain

Not covered by this document

The deck contains no balancing-market chapter: no aFRR, mFRR or FFR volume projections, no ACE-based trigger discussion, no statements about FBMC price volatility versus NTC, no congestion-revenue analysis, and no mention of LKAB, H2 Green Steel, Norrbotten or NordSyd. Earlier versions of this page (and some citing pages) attributed such content to KMA2025; that was unsupported.

Relationship to other sources

• Connects to Source - Svk LMA2024 Långsiktig Marknadsanalys — KMA2025 is the short-term (5-year) view; LMA2024 is the long-term (to 2050) view; the two are separate analyses (KMA2025 is dated March 2026, after LMA2024)
• Connects to Source - Svk Verksamhetsplan 2026-2028 — (relationship to KMA2025 not stated in the KMA2025 deck itself)

Relevance to wiki

• Bidding Areas — SE1 net-import shift; north-south price equalisation; bottleneck decline
• Flow-Based Capacity Calculation — KMA2025 uses flow-based capacity calculation in its modelling
• Balancing Markets — (no balancing content in this source)
• Svenska kraftnät — short-term planning analysis