Svk LMA2026 Långsiktig Marknadsanalys

Svenska kraftnät’s fifth long-term market analysis (LMA2026) — scenarios for the Swedish and Northern European electricity system to 2050. Final report (slutrapport), version 1.0, 174 pages, dated 17 June 2026 (Ärende nr Svk 2024/5367). The principal evidence base for Svk’s long-term transmission grid planning. See Long-Term Market Analysis for the conceptual treatment.

Source metadata

The four scenarios

Names: first word = electrification pace, second = direction of new production (Swedish perspective).

Mapping to LMA2024: SF→LF, FM→MM, EP→HP, EF→HF.

Swedish demand 2050 range: 192–333 TWh (down from LMA2024’s 209–365 TWh). Driver of the downward revision: profitability problems in several green-industry projects (high capex, rising rates, price uncertainty, international competition); partly offset by new projects and higher maturity in existing ones. Much of the growth is fossil-free steel/sponge iron in SE1, concentrated in a few actors → high sensitivity. Data-centre growth named as upside risk.

Nuclear: all scenarios now assume lifetime extension (3 of 6 reactors in LF/HF; all 6 in MM/HP) — a change from LMA2024 (retirement at 60 years).

Production/demand snapshot (annual mean, TWh)

Selected 2050 figures (LF / MM / HP / HF): total production 215 / 267 / 334 / 333; total consumption −192 / −260 / −327 / −329; nuclear 24 / 64 / 108 / 24; onshore wind 97 / 105 / 120 / 135; offshore wind 0 / 0 / 0 / 55; hydrogen consumption −9 / −33 / −62 / −62; net export 17 / 2 / 3 / −5. (2026 reference: 183 TWh production, 40 TWh net export.)

Key findings

1. North–south price gradient flattens; in highest-demand scenarios SE1 becomes the highest-priced zone (reversal of today’s low-north pattern), driven by hydrogen-based steel demand in the north.
2. +500 MW on internal snitt shows generally high welfare benefit to 2050. Snitt 1 benefit rises over the period (esp. HP/HF); Snitt 2 benefit falls vs 2026 due to the already-assumed NordSyd capacity increase. Extra capacity on existing continental cables remains valuable even as annual-average prices converge.
3. Reserve needs and balancing costs rise in all scenarios (more variable wind/solar); inter-scenario differences small vs total production cost. Deep-dive on FFR (fast frequency reserve) and FRR costs; today’s FFR cost-effective at low rotational energy.
4. Flexibility decisive for adequacy: removing price-responsive hydrogen/e-fuel demand produces a significant number of shortage hours in high-demand scenarios.
5. Lower rotational energy, more converter-connected production → need for grid-forming converters, synthetic inertia, synchronous condensers; largest where nuclear is retired (LF/HF).
6. Sensitivity — no HVDC cable renewal (PL/DE/FI/DK): raises need for dispatchable thermal abroad; worsens Swedish wind-vs-solar economics by 2050; more high-price hours, fewer zero-price hours.

Flexibility assumptions and results

• Modelled as partly-flexible use (EVs, hydrogen — limited by storage) + förbrukningsreduktion (demand reduction at price) from large heat pumps, hydrogen-for-e-fuels, general industry.
• EVs: half assumed to charge flexibly; 2050 HP/HF EV battery ≈ 324 GWh, 162 GWh flexible; ~2.7–3.1 GW shiftable.
• Indicative Swedish flexibility potentials (GW, 2050): EV charging 2.7–3.1; hydrogen storage up to 4.4; demand reduction 2.8–3.4; large batteries ~5.5; small batteries ~2.8.

Planeringsscenario

Under Svk’s new instruction (in force 1 Aug 2025), Svk will introduce a formal planeringsscenario consistent with riksdag energy-policy goals, plus alternative paths for uncertainty. LMA2026 was not built around one; MM is judged closest. Work begins autumn 2026. The planeringsmål (≥300 TWh by 2045) sits above projected demand (MM ≈ 263 TWh 2050) — it is a planning premise, not a forecast; reaching it would need much electrification late in the period and possibly complementary measures.

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