Energiforsk 2026-1192 Holistisk Nätutvecklingsstrategi (2026)

Energiforsk Report 2026:1192, En holistisk nätutvecklingsstrategi — Beslutprocess för en balanserad mix av kapacitetshöjande åtgärder (June 2026) — programme Elnätens hållbara teknikutveckling och digitalisering. Authors: Nima Mirzaei Alavijeh, Adam Nilsson, Johan Bergerlind, Magnus Lenasson, Magnus Lindén (Sweco). Develops a structured decision process for choosing a balanced mix of capacity-raising measures (reinforcement, flexibility markets, villkorade avtal, network tariffs), optimising for cost-effectiveness, grid utilisation, and reliability. Basis: literature/omvärld review, interviews with 12 Swedish DSOs, and a case study at one DSO where the process was trialled.

Key claims

• Capacity shortage must be handled differently by time horizon. Under high uncertainty, adaptive planning that combines reversible measures (e.g. flexibility) with irreversible ones (e.g. reinforcement) reduces the risk of over- or under-investment.
• No general “rule of thumb” for when flexibility beats reinforcement — outcomes depend strongly on local conditions. Capacity problems can arise relatively soon even where the situation is manageable today, driven notably by battery storage and solar connections.
• Two complementary decision processes proposed: a short-term one focused on handling connection requests, and a long-term strategic one with an iterative approach to uncertainty. Both compare measures on reliability trade-off and economic analysis, and make explicit which evaluation steps/analyses are needed to decide.
• Proposed ordering/logic of measures:
  • Omkopplingar (network reconfiguration/switching) treated as a first-hand measure.
  • Network tariffs as a proactive management practice that mainly influences long-term forecasts — not a tool to steer “correctly” at specific hours.
  • Network reinforcement and flexibility trading treated as equivalent alternatives that must be compared from both reliability and cost perspectives.
  • Villkorade anslutningsavtal as a “fallback” when flexibility markets are judged insufficiently reliable, or where the consequences of a market failure are high.
• From silos to integration: DSOs should move from separate tracks (investment, flexibility, tariff development) to an integrated decision process where combinations of measures are tested early and a strategy is chosen over time.
• Development needs: deeper methods to estimate flexibility potential; risk/consequence-based reliability criteria; long-term forecasts with hourly resolution; follow-up of actual behaviour change after tariff introductions; development of permanent flexible agreements; analysis of how financing and revenue-regulation incentives shape the measure mix; further standardisation/industry cooperation to lower the cost of alternative capacity solutions.

Relevance to wiki

• Grid Capacity Utilization — the decision-process layer over the same technical/operative/contractual measure families; switching-first, tariffs-as-forecast, reinforcement↔flexibility equivalence, villkorade-as-fallback.
• DSO Flexibility Valuation — Methods and Swedish Evidence — the “no rule of thumb / local conditions” finding and adaptive (reversible-vs-irreversible) planning.
• Villkorade Avtal — explicit “fallback” positioning relative to flexibility markets.
• Distribution Network Development Plan / Distribution System Operator — integrated DSO planning rather than separate tracks.
• Congestion Management · Flexibility Market.