Winter 2026-27 Supply Situation
Energimyndigheten's assessment of 7 October 2026 is an elevated risk of higher electricity prices this winter but no power shortage, with weak hydrology and extended nuclear outages as the main drivers.
The Nordic hydrological balance was about 15 TWh below normal at the start of October, so prices and the value of flexibility this winter will hinge on weather and on whether the nuclear outages finish on schedule.
A running summary of the physical and price context for Sweden’s winter 2026/27, built from Energimyndigheten’s weekly national situation report (Sveriges energiläge, published on Wednesdays). Latest edition incorporated: 7 October 2026 (week 41). Each update adds a row to the tracking table and revises the assessment; the table runs from the 2 September edition. It describes supply and prices, not regulation, and relays the agency’s own assessment rather than a forecast of this wiki.
Latest assessment (7 October 2026)
Energimyndigheten assesses an elevated risk of higher electricity prices this winter but no power shortage, and sees no indication of one. It stresses that prices can vary strongly over time and between bidding zones, and that high prices are not the same as physical shortage. The drivers it names: the weak hydrological situation, extended nuclear outages, and, indirectly, higher natural-gas prices in Europe. Particularly high prices can arise when several unfavourable conditions coincide. Supply of electricity and of heating and cooling is assessed as stable, and so are fuels and gas, with an early warning for jet fuel as a precaution (Source - Energimyndigheten Sveriges Energiläge v. 41 (2026-10-07)). The explicit price-risk wording first appeared on 30 September; the September editions before that called electricity supply stable without a price statement (Source - Energimyndigheten Sveriges Energiläge Weekly Series (2026)).
Tracking table
Reservoir and balance figures are for the week stated (they lag the edition date); gas storage is on the date in brackets.
| Edition | Assessment (electricity) | Reservoirs (week): Sweden vs mean, Norway vs median | Nordic hydro balance | Gas storage: Sweden, EU | Nuclear outages and notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sep | Stable | wk 34: 73.2 % vs 80.7; 64.0 % vs 79.5 | −20.9 TWh | 50.35 %; 65.39 % (2 Sep), about 77 % a year earlier | Ringhals 3 to 31 Oct, Ringhals 4 to 15 Oct, Forsmark 1 6 Sep to 17 Nov, Olkiluoto 3 from 10 Sep to 29 Oct |
| 9 Sep | Stable | wk 35: 73.2 % vs 80.6; 63.4 % vs 80.1 | −20.9 TWh | figures repeat 2 Sep | Ringhals 4 moved to 30 Nov |
| 16 Sep | Stable; SE4 peak of about 9 kr/kWh on 14 Sep | wk 36: 73.8 % vs 80.8; 63.6 % vs 81.0 | −21.3 TWh | 67.48 %; 68.49 % (16 Sep), about 80 % a year earlier | Forsmark 2 half power 15 to 18 Sep; Baltic Cable back |
| 23 Sep | Stable | wk 37: 74.2 % vs 80.5; 64.3 % vs 82.5 | about −15 TWh (end wk 38) | 74.02 %; 70.14 % (23 Sep), about 82 % a year earlier | SwePol limited to 27 Sep; SE4 to DK2 cable to 8 Nov |
| 30 Sep | Elevated price risk, no power shortage | wk 38: 75.0 % vs 80.7; 66.6 % vs 83.0 | −14.4 TWh (end wk 39) | 74.03 %; 71.33 % (29 Sep), about 13 points lower | Oskarshamn 3 test 6 to 9 Oct; Konti-Skan limited 5 to 16 Oct; SE4 to DK2 to 24 Oct |
| 7 Oct | Elevated price risk, no power shortage | wk 39: 74.7 % vs 80.8; 67.8 % vs 82.8 | −15.0 TWh (end wk 40) | 85.12 %; 72.83 % (6 Oct), about 15 points lower | Ringhals 3 to 31 Oct, Forsmark 1 to 17 Nov, Ringhals 4 to 30 Nov, Olkiluoto 3 to 29 Oct |
Reading the series (my arithmetic on the table): the Nordic deficit narrowed from about −21 TWh in early September to about −15 TWh by early October, Sweden’s reservoirs moved from about 7.5 points below the mean to about 6, while Norway’s stayed 15 to 18 points below its median throughout. Sources: Source - Energimyndigheten Sveriges Energiläge Weekly Series (2026) and Source - Energimyndigheten Sveriges Energiläge v. 41 (2026-10-07).
Grid and interconnector limits (as of 7 October)
The SE4 to DK2 interconnector is limited by a cable replacement until 24 October, and Konti-Skan 1 and 2 limit transfer between DK1 and SE3 until 16 October; several planned transmission-grid outages for maintenance and renewal are under way. (Source - Energimyndigheten Sveriges Energiläge v. 41 (2026-10-07))
How this connects to flexibility
The report is about supply security, not flexibility, but the same conditions shape the markets covered elsewhere on the wiki: the third strategic-reserve procurement for 16 November 2026 to 15 March 2027 (Strategisk Reserv), the price level that reserve and arbitrage revenues are measured against (The Swedish BESS Business Case — Revenue Stacking and the FCR Saturation Problem, Swedish Balancing Market Prices and Volumes) and the wider resource-adequacy argument (Capacity Adequacy and Flexibility as the Missing Reserve).
Related pages
- Strategisk Reserv, Capacity Adequacy and Flexibility as the Missing Reserve, Svk Transmission Grid Planning
- Swedish Balancing Market Prices and Volumes, Nord Pool, Bidding Areas