Energimyndigheten Sveriges Energiläge v. 41 (2026-10-07)

Energimyndigheten’s national weekly situation report (“lägesbild”) for energy supply, week 41, dated 7 October 2026 (case 2026-001444; previous edition 30 September). It is published as a rule on Wednesdays, so this page is a dated snapshot that the next edition replaces. The author name is from the PDF metadata; the document names Andreas Hornwall as responsible for the underlying material.

Overall assessment

• Electricity: an elevated risk of higher electricity prices ahead of winter 2026/27 but no power shortage, and no indication of one during the winter. The report says prices can vary strongly over time and between bidding zones and that high prices are not the same as physical shortage. The drivers it names are the weak hydrological situation, extended nuclear outages and, indirectly, higher natural-gas prices in Europe; very high prices can arise when several unfavourable conditions coincide. Supply of electricity is assessed as stable, and heating and cooling supply as stable.
• Fuels and gas: petrol and diesel are stable in the short and long term; jet fuel is stable for at least a month ahead, and Sweden has issued an early warning for jet-fuel shortage as a precaution only. Physical gas supply in Sweden is not expected to be affected in the short term.
• Context: a continued unsettled situation in the Middle East affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab strait, with September oil and LNG exports from the region at their highest since the conflict began in late February; G7 countries have agreed a coordinated release of stocks. The report’s time horizons are short term 0–3 months, medium 3–6 and long 6–12.

Measures

The government has decided that Energimyndigheten should draw down emergency stocks of oil and fuels if and when needed; in June it extended that possibility to 31 December 2026. A drawdown would rest on an overall assessment of the market and Sweden’s international commitments.

Events and figures (electricity and gas)

• Nuclear outages: annual outages at Ringhals 3 until 31 October, Ringhals 4 until 30 November and Forsmark 1 until 17 November; Oskarshamn 3 tests new equipment on 6 to 9 October with full output back after two days; Olkiluoto 3 (Finland) is in outage until 29 October. The report says the outages can push prices up this autumn but that all are to be finished after November.
• Hydrology: reservoirs in week 39 were at 74.7 % in Sweden (mean 80.8 %) and 67.8 % in Norway (median 82.8 %); the Nordic hydrological balance was −15.0 TWh at the end of week 40, with the deficit largest in Norway.
• Wind and grid: good wind early in the week, then low to normal; several planned transmission-grid outages; the SE4 to DK2 interconnector is limited by a cable replacement until 24 October, and Konti-Skan 1 and 2 limit DK1 to SE3 transfer until 16 October.
• Gas storage: Sweden 85.12 % full and the EU 72.83 % (6 October); the report says EU storage is about 15 percentage points below last year and that unfavourable winter-summer price differences, conflict volatility and the REPowerEU ban on Russian gas slow filling; the Commission sees no direct risk for winter supply.
• Europe: cooling-water problems for nuclear plants persist in some countries; Hungary has left its early warning, Bulgaria remains in early warning for electricity supply and Romania has declared an electricity crisis.

Relevance

Gives the official supply-side context for winter 2026/27, relevant to the third strategic-reserve procurement (Strategisk Reserv), to expectations for reserve-market and spot prices, and to the resource-adequacy debate. It contains no regulation or market-design content, and nothing in it contradicts existing wiki pages.

Limits of this summary

Read in full (4 pages). The figures are the report’s own and are cited there to Nord Pool UMM notices, Energiföretagen, NVE, AGSI and Reuters; none was checked against those sources here.