Svk Transmission Grid Planning

How Svenska kraftnät plans, builds, and connects users to the Swedish transmission grid. Split out from the Svenska kraftnät entity page, which had accumulated one section per government assignment: this page holds the physical build-out and connection cluster (interconnector investment, the connection-process reform, where new load and generation should site, and the long-term planning scenarios), while Svk’s market and operational roles — balancing, BRP/BSP, FNA, flaskhalsinkomster, ö-drift — stay on the entity page.

The through-line is that Sweden’s transmission constraint has shifted from generation adequacy to connection capacity and its geography: the queue, not the kilowatt-hours. Each section below is one instrument for managing that.

Related pages

• Svenska kraftnät — the TSO itself: roles, strategy, market and balancing responsibilities
• Anvisningssystem — full treatment of kapacitetszoner, intressentpooler and the maturity criteria proposed by the connection-process reform
• Bidding Areas — the elområdesindelning assignment and the Art. 14.7 structural-congestion process
• Congestion Management — congestion as a system problem, and flaskhalsinkomster
• Distribution Network Development Plan — the DSO-side planning counterpart
• Flexibility Need Assessment — the assessment that flexibility must serve alongside grid build-out

HVDC interconnectors — three projects paused (May 2026)

On 7–8 May 2026, the government issued a formal assignment (Regeringsbeslut I:6, KN2026/01027) ordering Svk to submit a revised investment plan for 2027–2029 by 31 July 2026, with three interconnector projects excluded. Svk submitted the revised plan on 17 June 2026 (ahead of deadline): Konti-Skan Connect is paused until new instructions; Aurora Line 2 and Fenno-Skan 3 are excluded pending ongoing socio-economic analyses. The plan totals ~318 bn kr lifetime / ~67.6 bn kr for 2027–2029, with the NordSyd branches, Stockholm packages, and Gotlandsförbindelsen unaffected. (Source - Svk Utlandskablar Uppdrag Reviderad Investeringsplan (2026))

Political context — nätpaketet: The government’s stated reason is the direction of the EU nätpaketet (European network package), proposed by the Commission in December 2025 and under Council negotiation. Sweden has two core objections:

1. Flaskhalsinkomster (congestion revenues) — the nätpaketet restricts how member states can use revenues from congestion between bidding zones. Sweden wants to use them for dispatchable fossil-free electricity production and electricity support (elstöd).
2. EU-level system planning centralization — concentrates electricity system planning at EU level; “very little has happened” on this issue in negotiations.

Some movement on (1) was achieved in recent rounds; the government press release acknowledges partial progress. But the restrictions remain tighter than current rules. Quoted statement: “EU ska inte få svenskarnas elpengar. Bryssel lyssnar just nu inte på oss. Därför pausar vi planeringen för nya kablar för elexport.”

The existing interconnectors (Fenno-Skan 1–2, Konti-Skan 1–2, NordBalt, SwePol, Baltic Cable) remain in operation and are unaffected.

A 2026 CGE welfare analysis frames decisions like the Hansa PowerBridge cancellation as a real-world instance of “cutting the cable” — restricting cross-border capacity to protect domestic electricity-intensive industries — and finds the welfare cost of doing so economy-wide is far larger than targeted subsidies to the same industries would be. See Electricity Export Restrictions.

Connection process reform — anvisningssystem and kapacitetskarta

In April 2026 Svk published a government assignment report (Dnr 2025/5008) proposing major reforms to the transmission grid connection process, centred on an anvisningssystem — geographically defined kapacitetszoner with reserved capacity, and intressentpooler where projects compete on permit maturity (tillståndsmässig mognad) rather than queue order (connection-rights auctions were rejected). The aim is to generate locational signals steering large consumption and hydrogen toward system-beneficial sites. Implementation is targeted for 2027 with a pilot in H1 2027. Supporting measures: linked production/consumption applications, a possible central ansökningsplattform, early guidance dialogue, and mandatory trepartsdialog for major regional-grid connections. Svk also proposes investigating a fossil-free production condition for new large users (e.g. via a PPA). Progress to June 2026: the connection queue has been halved, förhandsbesked lead time cut ~30%, and >5,000 MW of förhandsbesked issued across 2025–early 2026. (Source - Svk Anslutningsprocessen Rapport (2026), Source - Svk Mogna Initiativ Anslutning (2026))

The Kapacitetskarta transmissionsnätet (published May 2026) is a public county-level map of indicative available transmission capacity (monthly updates from June 2026; 2030/2035 horizons to follow), a transparency precursor to formal kapacitetszoner. Headline March 2026 snapshot: Stockholm fully saturated (0 MW near-term uttag, 450 MW ansökt); large northern headroom but an enormous SE1 queue (22,750 MW ansökt uttag in Norrbotten alone, the largest value in the dataset); southern counties open for production connections. The map covers stamnätet only. (Source - Svk Kapacitetskarta 2026)

Queue snapshot, 1 September 2026: applied power in Svk’s connection queue (offshore wind excluded) was 25,992 MW of consumption and 20,456 MW of production. Data centres were 6,984 MW of the consumption (SE3 5,169 MW, SE2 1,320 MW, SE1 495 MW), industry 11,122 MW, and energy storage 2,206 MW as consumption and 2,260 MW as production; wind (9,004 MW) and solar (4,844 MW) lead the production side. Svk reserved capacity for 780 MW of consumption and 3,009 MW of production through förhandsbesked in January–August 2026. Svk compares such figures with a national peak load of about 25,000 MW and notes they are maximum power, not simultaneous use (Source - Svk Ansökningskö Statistik (2026-09)).

See Anvisningssystem for full treatment of kapacitetszoner, intressentpooler, the maturity criteria, cost-allocation guidance, and the capacity-threshold clarifications.

Follow-up assignment on price-hedging (June 2026): the government has now tasked Svk and Ei jointly with proposing measures to improve long-term price-hedging (prissäkring) on the electricity market, focused specifically on how instruments like long-term PPAs could let large new electricity users jump the connection queue if they bring matching new fossil-free production. Report due 3 June 2027. (Source - Regeringsuppdrag Prissäkring Elmarknaden (2026))

Localization principles and national målnät 2045

In its February 2025 report Planering för ökad elanvändning (KN2025/00635), Svk established four principles for where new production, consumption, and flexibility resources should connect to most efficiently develop the electricity system. These are the geographic framework that underpins the Anvisningssystem kapacitetszoner concept:

1. Regional balance: New production should target regions with a structural deficit
2. Plannable production near inflexible consumption: Near cities and services — reduces grid capacity need, losses, and supports civil defense/ö-drift capability
3. Weather-dependent production near flexible consumption: Variable generation should be sited near consumption that can follow the supply profile, or near large-scale flexibility resources
4. Flexibility resources reduce system costs: Industrial establishments designed for flexibility reduce operating costs and national capacity shortage risk

The report explicitly excludes analysis of how tariffs and bidding areas steer localization — that question falls outside Svk’s current assignment scope.

Energimyndigheten’s 2026 energy-transition status report restates principles 2–3 as an emerging general planning direction (dispatchable generation near low-flexibility demand, weather-dependent generation near high-flexibility demand) — corroborating detail, not new information beyond what Svk’s own February 2025 report already establishes above. (Source - Energimyndigheten ER 2026-08 Energiomställningen (2026))

Regional plans (as of February 2025):

• Norrbottens/Västerbottens: snitt 1 (SE1–SE2) target 7,500 MW by 2045 (from 3,300 MW today); 60–65% of long-term regional peak demand tied to hydrogen production; coastal zones Boden/Luleå, Piteå, Skellefteå prioritized for plannable production
• Skåne: snitt 4 norrgående target 3,600 MW by 2045 (from 2,800 MW); western coastal strip Ängelholm–Trelleborg highlighted for plannable production
• West Sweden plan in progress (expected Q2 2025)

National målnät 2045: Svk’s ambition is to publish a comprehensive national target grid for 2045 during 2026, built from regional plans completed sequentially. (Source - Svk Planering för ökad elanvändning (2025))

Government decision (KN2025/01694, 2025-09-04): Signed by Ebba Busch and Jan-Olof Lundgren, assigning Svk the connection-process review (the assignment from which the anvisningssystem proposal emerged; the decision itself does not name an anvisningssystem). The decision requires consultation with Ei, DSO system operators, and Accelerationskontoret (dir. 2024:57 — the committee facilitating industry’s green transition). The two riksdag-adopted goals (leveranssäkerhetsmål and planeringsmål for 300 TWh by 2045) were voted May 29, 2024. (Source - Svk Uppdrag Anslutningsprocessen Regeringsbeslut (2025))

Long-term planning — LMA2026 and the planeringsscenario

Svk’s fifth long-term market analysis, LMA2026 (17 June 2026), provides the scenario base for transmission planning to 2050. Four scenarios (LF/MM/HP/HF) put Swedish 2050 demand at 192–333 TWh — revised down from LMA2024 (209–365 TWh) as several green-industry projects hit profitability problems. Key results: the north–south price gradient flattens (SE1 can become the highest-priced zone); Snitt 1 reinforcement value rises while Snitt 2’s falls post-NordSyd; reserve needs and balancing costs rise; and flexibility is decisive for resource adequacy. See Long-Term Market Analysis and Source - Svk LMA2026 Långsiktig Marknadsanalys.

Under its new instruction (in force 1 August 2025), Svk has an expanded mandate for coordinated long-term system planning and will introduce a formal planeringsscenario aligned with riksdag energy-policy goals (plus alternative paths for uncertainty). LMA2026 was not built around one; Medel mixat (MM) is judged closest. Work on the full planeringsscenario begins autumn 2026. The planeringsmål (≥300 TWh by 2045) sits above projected demand and is a planning premise, not a forecast.

Kapacitetsåtgärder — joint TSO-DSO connection bridge concept

In January 2025, Svk and Vattenfall Eldistribution launched a joint intention to develop a concept for procuring temporary flexibility to bridge connection gaps before grid reinforcement is in place. Kapacitetsåtgärder (capacity measures) would procure production capacity (e.g. gas turbines), energy storage, or demand reduction under longer-term contracts, activated when a newly connected customer’s demand would otherwise require curtailment.

A pilot was launched for the Västra Götalandsregionen to bridge an identified gap, driven by industrial demand growth outpacing planned stamnät reinforcement. The pilot was concluded (announced March 2026) before procurement took place, and the planned market survey of suppliers was cancelled — in November 2025 Svk had given Vattenfall Eldistribution a new förhandsbesked covering the requested effect, both in size and timing, through 2035, removing the need for early-connection incentives. Svk nonetheless considers the methods and tools developed — a product specification, a working process, and experience coordinating Svk, regional grid companies, and market actors — viable for future applications where new connections cannot wait for grid reinforcement.

This concept differs from Villkorade Avtal (which restrict the connected party’s behaviour) by procuring third-party resources to compensate for the curtailment risk, potentially allowing more conventional connection terms. It also differs from the strategic reserve and overbelastningshantering by being oriented toward enabling connections rather than system balance. (Svk, “Koncept för kapacitetsåtgärd avslutas – lärdomar ger viktig grund för framtiden”, 2026-03-26; Source - Svk Uppdrag 3.1 Leveranssäkert Elsystem (2026))

Related pages

• Svenska kraftnät — the TSO itself: roles, strategy, market and balancing responsibilities
• Anvisningssystem — full treatment of kapacitetszoner, intressentpooler and the maturity criteria proposed by the connection-process reform
• Bidding Areas — the elområdesindelning assignment and the Art. 14.7 structural-congestion process
• Congestion Management — congestion as a system problem, and flaskhalsinkomster
• Distribution Network Development Plan — the DSO-side planning counterpart
• Flexibility Need Assessment — the assessment that flexibility must serve alongside grid build-out