Swedish Balancing Market Prices and Volumes

Reference tracker for the volumes, reserve requirements, prices, and supply-side concentration of the Swedish (and Nordic) balancing market products. It carries the periodically-updated empirical detail — monthly price snapshots, procurement schedules, prequalified provider counts — that supports the conceptual treatment in Balancing Markets. For product definitions, the EU regulatory framework, the Nordic Balancing Model, the BSP/BRP roles, and market-design analysis, see Balancing Markets.

Volumes and reserve requirements

2026 actual requirements

Svenska kraftnät‘s official 2026 reserve requirements (published January 2026): (Source - Svk Behov av Reserver 2026)

FCR-D volumes are dynamic — the stated ceilings apply at peak dimensioning fault; actual procurement varies below these levels.

aFRR by bidding area (2026):

Three tiers correspond to Nordic total of 200/225/250 MW (up) and 250/275/325 MW (down). SE4 (southern Sweden) carries the largest obligation in both directions — 24/27/30 MW up and 30/37/39 MW down — ahead of SE3’s 21/23/26 MW up and 25/29/31 MW down.

Q3 2026 schedule (from 1 July): aFRR Up is procured at 200 MW during hours 7–19 (06:00–19:00 CET; the schedule is 200 MW in every hour except 250 MW at 23:00–01:00) and aFRR Down at 250–325 MW; the note gives frequency quality within target in early 2026 as the main basis for the volumes; Svk’s July monthly report states the cut was 25 MW, i.e. from a previous daytime level of 225 MW (Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Juli 2026). Svk carries the largest Nordic share at 39% up / 38% down (Statnett 31/31, Fingrid 20/20, Energinet/DK2 10/11). (Source - Svk aFRR Q3 2026 Procurement (2026))

Q4 2026 schedule (from 1 October): aFRR Down in hours 7–19 is reduced from 325 MW to 275 MW (Nordic Down total 250–300 MW), aFRR Up unchanged at 200–250 MW, TSO shares unchanged; the basis given is again frequency quality within target. (Source - Svk aFRR Q4 2026 Procurement (2026))

mFRR capacity by bidding area (2026):

Pattern is inverse: SE3 dominates mFRR up (large consumption centre) while SE1 dominates mFRR down (large hydro-surplus area). Variable demand on mFRR CM was introduced in January 2026, replacing fixed demand with stochastic sizing.

Summer 2026 operational context: Nuclear reactor maintenance outages in summer reduce the number of large rotating generators online, making the system more vulnerable to frequency deviations. Svk holds reserves that respond in under one second (FFR-type) to compensate for the lost inertia. Nedregleringsbud (downregulation bids) have improved versus summer 2025 — more bids and greater diversity, with wind and batteries now contributing alongside the traditional hydro base; Svk calls for further market entry to improve obalanspris competition. (Source - Svk Elsystemet Under Sommaren (2026))

Projections to 2030

Svenska kraftnät‘s Balancing Market Outlook 2030 (December 2024): (Source - Svk Balancing Market Outlook 2030 (2024), Source - Svk Reserver Framtida Volymbehov (2025))

FCR-N and FCR-D remain stable to 2030. The largest relative growth is in aFRR (doubling) and mFRR up (+75%) — reflecting increasing need for active balancing as variable renewables grow. FFR is projected to grow dramatically to 1–48 GWh by 2035 as synchronous inertia declines; the EP scenario (electrification with new nuclear) yields near-zero FFR need while the SF scenario (small-scale renewables) yields 48 GWh.

Near-term developments (BeFlexible D5.2, 2025): (Source - BeFlexible D5.2 Demo Planning and Deployment 2 (2025))

• FFR: volumes growing; transition to a D-1 capacity market: IT platform 2027, market live 2028 (new IT platform Fifty Nordic MMS) — see Source - Svk Balancing Market Outlook 2030 Data Update (2026)
• FCR-D down: need growing from ~400 MW (2024) → ~500 MW (2026); prices already low and expected to remain low due to continued new supply entry. FCR-D up need is expected to remain unchanged.
• FCR-N: demand stable at ~230 MW/h; prices approximately 10× higher than FCR-D; Nordic re-evaluation of dimensioning ongoing
• aFRR: BeFlexible expected volumes to double from about 100 MW/h at the end of 2024 to 200 MW/h by 2026. Svk’s 2026 update expects a further step at the PICASSO connection (Q4 2027), with demand rising from 97/124 MW today to 120–350 MW (Source - Svk Balancing Market Outlook 2030 Data Update (2026))

Updated pre-qualification data (Q4 2025, Source - Svk Balancing Market Outlook 2030 Data Update (2026)):

• FCR-N: 1,980 MW pre-qualified; BESS +280% since 2024
• FCR-D up: ~4,510 MW pre-qualified; BESS dominant at 2,700 MW — static limit introduced September 2026 (50% fixed component + 50% dynamic based on rotational energy share)
• FFR: 910 MW pre-qualified; BESS +510 MW since 2024 (+160%, 56% of total)

Flow-based market coupling + 15-minute MTU — main new structural challenge (2026 update): Flow-based coupling allocates more cross-zonal capacity (CZC) to day-ahead spot, leaving less available for balancing. Combined with the 15-minute MTU, this reduces available CZC in the balancing timeframe and makes the ACE-based balancing model more complex — the primary new operational challenge identified in the 2026 outlook.

Comprehensive balancing model review: Svk has initiated a broad reassessment of the Nordic balancing model — reserve dimensioning methodology, incentive structures, and the ACE-based model interaction with reserve requirements. No published timeline. A new strategic initiative beyond the incremental NBM implementation steps.

Prices

Live data source. Svk’s open-data portal data.svk.se publishes the mFRR and aFRR capacity-market marginal prices and called-capacity volumes per elområde (hourly, active, daily updates since 2023-10-18) plus day-ahead prices — via CSV and a CKAN API. It is the live primary source behind the figures below, which are otherwise drawn from Svk’s periodic Månadsrapport Balansmarknader. The legacy FCR feeds on the portal are discontinued. (Source - Svk Öppna Data (data.svk.se))

Total annual economic value of Swedish balancing market products (Albrecht & Rosten 2025 thesis as reported in FlexAbility; FCR based on 2024 data after marginal pricing, aFRR on data from 2022 onward after the zone split) (Source - FlexAbility Delrapport 2 (2025)):

BESS portfolio returns — March 2026

Flower publishes monthly MAR-regulated trading performance for its Swedish BESS portfolio (SE2, SE3, SE4), providing the most concrete public revenue benchmark for a Swedish BESS aggregator: (Source - Flower Website (2024-2026))

Capacity markets (FCR-N, FCR-D, FFR) account for 86% of gross revenue; energy markets (arbitrage, imbalance) 14%. At 0.8 daily cycles, Flower operates batteries primarily in FCR bid-and-hold mode rather than energy arbitrage. Grid costs (~21% of gross) reflect transmission tariffs and imbalance fees.

This 86%-from-FCR mix sits against flat FCR demand and exploding supply to 2030 — the saturation dynamic and the pivot toward mFRR, aFRR, and arbitrage are analysed in The Swedish BESS Business Case — Revenue Stacking and the FCR Saturation Problem.

Actual prices — June 2026

Primary source: Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Juni 2026.

FCR capacity prices (monthly mean, EUR/MW): FCR-N 25.6; FCR-D upp 5.9; FCR-D ned 5.6 — all three up versus May 2026.

aFRR CM prices (EUR/MW, June 2026 mean):

aFRR up rose in SE3 and SE4 and held level in SE1 and SE2 versus May; aFRR down fell in every zone. Down still exceeded up in SE1–SE3, while in SE4 up (11.3) exceeded down (8.0) — the multi-month trend (see February data below) shows down structurally exceeding up.

mFRR CM prices (EUR/MW, June 2026 mean):

The SE1/SE2 vs SE3/SE4 split in mFRR down persists (21.0/17.9 vs 2.4/2.5) — the same north-south spread pattern documented for February.

mFRR EAM spread over spot (EUR/MWh, June 2026 mean): SE1 +41/−25; SE2 +44/−24; SE3 +59/−44; SE4 +63/−50 (up/down). SE3/SE4 again show the highest up-regulation premiums, consistent with February.

Actual prices — July and August 2026

Primary sources: Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Juli 2026, Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Augusti 2026.

Swedish share of called aFRR volume: down 15% in July and 28% in August; up 2% in both. The August FCR-D upp mean was pushed up by high marginal prices in procurement 1 on 4 August. The north-south split in mFRR down persists (SE1/SE2 far above SE3/SE4), and the SE4 up premium jumped in July (mFRR CM up 27.9 EUR/MW, EAM spread up 95 EUR/MWh) before easing in August.

January–July 2026 against the same period of 2025 (July report boxes): aFRR CM up fell from 22 to 7.7 EUR/MW and down from 22 to 14 EUR/MW, with the import share of Sweden’s aFRR requirement up from 69% to 98% (up) and from 38% to 58% (down); mFRR CM up fell from 39 to 13 and down from 36 to 15 EUR/MW; FCR-N 30.38 → 20.75, FCR-D upp 5.72 → 4.95, FCR-D ned 7.05 → 4.24 EUR/MW; mFRR EAM up spreads roughly halved in SE3 (101 → 58) and SE4 (146 → 73 EUR/MWh); SE4 up quarters above 1,000 EUR/MWh fell from 106 to 32. Svk’s own explanations are more imports, more supply (prequalified mFRR resources up from 17,000 to 19,000 MW) and, for aFRR, a lower procured volume. Variable demand in mFRR CM (±10%) since January cut the average up requirement from about 1,180 MW to 1,077 MW. FCR moved to the Nordic MMS platform on 14 April 2026. (Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Juli 2026)

The August report starts publishing monthly imbalance-forecast MAE and bias per zone, a new data source for forecast accuracy. (Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Augusti 2026)

Actual prices — March to May 2026

Primary sources: Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Mars 2026, Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader April 2026, Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Maj 2026.

FCR-N fell by a third from February (30.9) to March and stayed around 19–22 EUR/MW through the spring. aFRR down paid two to three times as much as aFRR up in most zones, and the share of Sweden’s aFRR requirement called in Sweden swung from 40% (March) to 64% (April) and 48% (May) for down, with up close to zero apart from 8% in April. In mFRR the SE4 up premium is the steady feature: in March and April SE1–SE3 paid 2–6 EUR/MW for mFRR up while SE4 paid 18–26, before prices converged in May. aFRR and mFRR capacity prices were below the same month of 2025 in every zone in all three months. FCR moved to the Nordic MMS platform on 14 April 2026, and April also saw a single-hour aFRR up price of 237 EUR/MW in SE4.

Actual prices — January 2026

Primary source: Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Januari 2026 — the first monthly report to cover all balancing markets in one document and to include mFRR CM. The FCR and aFRR January values also appear as comparison columns in the February section below.

• FCR (weighted monthly mean, EUR/MW): FCR-N 23.3, FCR-D up 6.8, FCR-D down 1.2 — similar to January 2025; up from December for FCR-N (16.3) and FCR-D up (5.0), down for FCR-D down (1.8).
• aFRR CM (EUR/MW, SE1–SE4): up 5.8–11.6, higher than December in every zone, lower than January 2025; down 9.3–11.6, level with December and January 2025. Up hourly maxima: 47.5 in SE3/SE4, 40 in SE2, 31 in SE1.
• mFRR CM (EUR/MW): up 19.2–22.7, higher than December in all Swedish zones; down 1.8–12.1, lower than December except in SE1; called volumes level with December.
• mFRR EAM spread over spot (EUR/MWh): up SE1 34, SE2 36, SE3 86, SE4 86; down −43, −40, −40, −43. Swedish activated volumes fell against December (the report is internally inconsistent on the direction for down; see the source page).

Actual prices — February 2026

Primary source: Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Februari 2026.

FCR capacity prices (EUR/MW):

FCR-N is approximately 3.7× FCR-D upp in February 2026 mean terms — directly explaining battery operator preference for FCR-N. The max-to-mean ratio (FCR-N: 96 vs 31) reflects high intra-month price volatility.

aFRR CM prices (EUR/MW, February 2026):

aFRR down prices exceed up prices in SE1–SE3, while in SE4 up (9.7) is above down (8.1). Share of Sweden’s aFRR CM requirement called in Sweden: approximately 0% up and approximately 48% down; Finland supplied the largest called volume for aFRR up and Norway for aFRR down in February. Svk’s 2025 reports explain the low Swedish share for up as Finland becoming the largest net exporter and southern Norway and DK2 undercutting Swedish bids (see the 2025 subsection below). (Source - Svk Månadsrapport Balansmarknader Februari 2026)

mFRR CM prices (EUR/MW, February 2026):

Large north-south spread in mFRR down: SE1/SE2 at 12.5–15.2 EUR/MW vs SE3/SE4 at only 2.4 EUR/MW. Share of Sweden’s mFRR CM requirement called in Sweden: ~81% up, ~95% down, against ~0% and ~48% for aFRR.

mFRR EAM spread over spot price (February 2026 monthly means):

SE3/SE4 show higher up-regulation premiums (+61/+65 EUR/MWh), consistent with more expensive activation events in the southern consumption zones.

2025 in Svk’s monthly reports (March–December)

Svk’s separate monthly reports for FCR (Source - Svk Månadsrapporter FCR 2024 for August–December 2024; Source - Svk Månadsrapporter FCR 2025), aFRR (Source - Svk Månadsrapporter aFRR 2025) and mFRR EAM (Source - Svk Månadsrapporter mFRR EAM 2025) give the 2025 context for the series in the appendix; the January 2026 report onwards is consolidated.

• FCR: monthly means ran from just under 15 EUR/MW for FCR-N in February to a year high of 37.43 in April; FCR-D up from 2.66 (February) to 8.91 (April); FCR-D down from 1.80 (December, the year low) to 14.68 (May). FCR-D down procurement was raised to its full 524 MW from 1 January 2025. Volume shifted to SE3 and SE4 (SE3 averaged 46% of FCR-D down and 48% of FCR-D up) as energy storage reached about 29% of prequalified FCR-D down. Extreme single hours: FCR-D down 2,690 EUR/MW in auction 2 on 27 April and FCR-N 1,000 on 20 May.
• aFRR capacity: up prices fell from 21.8–36.6 EUR/MW across SE1–SE4 in March to 5.7–10.4 in December. The Swedish share of the requirement met by Swedish bids fell for up from 45.1% (April) to 7.5% (December), as Finland became the largest net exporter and southern Norway and DK2 undercut Swedish bids; for down it stayed at about 50–75%. Hourly peaks in SE3/SE4 (up to 241 EUR/MW on 15 October) arise from high reservation costs for cross-zonal capacity, not from scarcity of local bids.
• mFRR EAM: the automated market started on 4 March 2025. March saw extreme negative price spikes (−1,000 EUR/MWh on 22 March, −10,000 on 23 March); in April Sweden’s activated volume doubled against April 2024 (about 70 GWh up, 101 down); the up spread in SE3/SE4 fell from historically high levels through spring, turned up in July, and fell again in September (−13.6 EUR/MWh in SE4); prequalified volume rose about 12% up and 11% down from March to November. On 18 November a communication (“heartbeat”) problem in participants’ IT systems made a large share of resources unavailable and pushed the SE3/SE4 spread to 986 EUR/MWh (imbalance price 1,086).

Elastic demand in the mFRR bid selector (June 2026)

From 22 June 2026, Svk introduced elastisk efterfrågan (elastic demand) for Sweden’s mFRR balancing-energy need in the Nordic budväljare (bid selector): the selector may leave part of the need un-activated when the offered price is judged too high, capped at 70 MW per quarter-hour (any uncovered imbalance falls to other reserves such as aFRR). It replaces the toleransband (tolerance band), whose optimisation complexity had been breaking the bid selector’s time budget and producing recurring illogical bid selections and mispricing — a rare public admission that the clearing algorithm itself was generating extreme imbalance prices in the wake of the March 2025 mFRR EAM / 15-minute ISP transition. Functionally a buyer-side willingness-to-pay ceiling on balancing energy, it is expected to dampen extreme obalanspriser ahead of the separately-planned revised obalanspris (≥ March 2027). Coordinated Nordically — Denmark (Energinet) and Norway (Statnett) already live; Finland (Fingrid) later — and designed to survive the MARI connection (Nordic go-live Q1 2027); Svk’s local bid selector is unchanged for now. (Source - Svk Elastisk Efterfrågan mFRR (2026))

Historical market size

Svk’s net ancillary service costs grew dramatically over 2020–2022: (Source - Stödtjänster på Elmarknaden Energiforsk (2024))

The 2021–22 spike was driven by higher FCR and FRR procurement volumes and by the wholesale electricity price spike in 2022.

Historical price context

Four structural market changes affect historical comparability:

• FCR-D ned introduced 1 January 2022 — new downward regulation product
• FCR marginal pricing introduced 1 February 2024 — replaced pay-as-bid; pre-2024 FCR data is not directly comparable
• aFRR split by price zone since 11 May 2022 — before this, a single system price applied across all of Sweden
• mFRR Energy Activation Market (EAM) launched March 2025 — automated mFRR activation and changed market time unit from 60 to 15 minutes (Source - Ei R2025-19 Sweden Electricity and Gas Market 2024 (2025))

FCR prices show no strong correlation with spot price. aFRR shows weak positive correlation (up) and weak negative correlation (down). mFRR shows strong correlation with spot. (Source - FlexAbility Delrapport 2 (2025))

2024 structural changes

FCR marginal pricing (February 1, 2024): previously FCR used pay-as-bid pricing; from February 1, 2024, all accepted bids are paid at the marginal price. This increased Svk procurement costs but is economically efficient and eliminates strategic underbidding incentives. No visible change in bidding behavior immediately after introduction. (Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 1 and 2 2024 (Feb-May))

Trilateral mFRR Capacity Market launched November 19, 2024: a common mFRR capacity market between Svenska kraftnät, Fingrid (Finland), and Energinet (Denmark) went live. The market enables southern Sweden to source mFRR up capacity from Finland and Denmark, reducing the need to reserve cross-country capacity from the north. (Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 3 and 4 2024 (Sep-Nov))

Överbelastningsreserv (January 2025 start, procured November 2024): Svenska kraftnät procured a new instrument — överbelastningsreserv — through an open procurement to bridge the gap when existing störningsreserv contracts expired. Both production and consumption resources participated in the procurement; the capability systemdriftskompensation was included alongside conventional production and load-shedding. Contracts began January 2025. (Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 3 and 4 2024 (Sep-Nov))

Wind curtailment event — week 32, August 2024: with low consumption and high wind in Swedish zones, spot prices turned negative for multiple hours. Wind producers had not sold available production on day-ahead in response to the price signal. Despite Svk pre-smoothing the transition by reducing ~200 MW, wind production dropped 1,200 MW suddenly at the hour boundary — close to the 1,450 MW Nordic dimensioning fault level — driving frequency outside normal operating range. Raised concerns about BRP contract compliance for large production changes (the contract requires that changes >200 MW be smoothed across the hour boundary). (Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 3 and 4 2024 (Sep-Nov))

REMIT market surveillance: Svk formally started market surveillance under REMIT in 2024; FCR monitoring from 2024; mFRR and aFRR surveillance to follow. Svk is designated as PPAT (Person Professionally Arranging Transactions). (Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 1 and 2 2024 (Feb-May))

mFRR EAM launch and operational impacts (2025)

The mFRR EAM (Nordic mFRR Energy Activation Market) went live on March 4, 2025, simultaneous with the shift to 15-minute balancing. The 15-minute DA followed on September 30, 2025. The combination had several significant operational consequences documented across 2025 Elmarknadsrådet meetings. (Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 1 and 2 2025 (Feb-May), Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 3 and 4 2025 (Sep-Nov))

mFRR-spot spread increase: The spread between the spot price and the mFRR energy activation price increased after go-live (the minutes give no factor; a market-participant slide cites up to 400%, not a Svk figure). Causes: (1) flowbased DA captures more cross-zonal capacity, leaving less for balancing timeframe; (2) automated activation deploys more bids on the bid stack than manual activation did; (3) more localized activation required — obalanser can no longer be netted across bidding areas as freely.

Industry stress: Vattenfall and Fortum reported higher control center workloads, equipment wear from new activation patterns (“not sustainable long-term”), and unpredictable obalanspriser. Varberg Energi, entering as a new mFRR BSP in this period, found that Svk’s communications focused on existing BSPs rather than new entrants and BRPs. All major BRPs described the combination of intraday illiquidity and unpredictable mFRR prices as the central structural problem. Industry asked for: real-time balance data publication, forward bid volumes, ACE OL forecast for tradeable quarters.

Manual price corrections — and their end (June 2026): From the first adjustment for 25 April 2025 through 24 June 2026, Svk made weekly ex-post corrections to the published obalanspris in situations where Svk judged it justified, while the automated processes and market design were being improved — in total 112 quarters adjusted (by elområde: SE4 112, SE3 102, SE1 79, SE2 78; majority in southern Sweden), per published principles. Summing the quarter counts in Svk’s weekly notices gives about 115, so the published total and the notices differ by roughly three quarters; the ten quarters without a published price on 30 March 2026 (IT incident) and the nine quarters re-run after faulty Statnett data in March 2026 appear not to be in either figure. Svk acknowledged the corrections themselves created uncertainty and risked weakening flexibility incentives. With balancing-market supply increased, the market stabilised, and elastisk efterfrågan now live in the Nordic budväljare, Svk will stop the manual adjustments after 28 June 2026 (last analysed day; results presented 2 July 2026) — future corrections avoided “as far as possible” but not fully excluded (e.g. major IT faults). (Source - Svk Obalanspris Manuella Justeringar Upphör (2026))

Algorithmic improvements (2025):

• Tolerance band introduced — allows activation of slightly larger but cheaper volumes when they reduce the marginal price
• “Ologisk prisspridning” (illogical price spread) fix implemented end November 2025 (confirmed December 8, 2025); a 13 January 2026 price adjustment still cited “illogical bid choices” in the algorithm
• Svk began market surveillance specifically for mFRR EAM bids

mFRR price cap consultation (November 2025): Svk explored two alternatives for capping extreme mFRR prices and published a consultation document:

• Alternative A: cap mFRR EAM bids at ±5,000 EUR/MWh (the previous reglerkraftmarknad cap level)
• Alternative B: cap the BRP obalanspris (imbalance price) while keeping EAM bid caps unchanged Svk stated it was not evaluating the level itself — ±5,000 EUR/MWh was chosen because that was the previous market standard. Outcome requires Ei dialogue and Nordic TSO coordination. (Source - Elmarknadsrådet Meetings 3 and 4 2025 (Sep-Nov))

aFRR new entrant access — ombud resolution: New actors could not enter the aFRR market because it required ICCP technical communication infrastructure. In February 2025 Svk said new actors could connect through an existing ICCP-connected actor acting as proxy; the council saw no technical obstacle but found it complex (bilateral terms) and could not see the benefit for the proxy. By November 2025, Svk decided to procure an external ombud itself to forward bids from new aFRR entrants without them needing to establish full ICCP connections. This is specifically noted in BSP contract version 5937-2 (September 2025 version) (Source - Svk BSP Avtal 5937-2 (2025)).

Scarcity events — when the bid stack runs out

Two 2025–26 episodes show the Swedish mFRR market hitting its depth limits and the imbalance-price response:

• Winter 2025/26: Svk price-adjusted 11 quarter-hours of mFRR balancing energy under its temporary manual-correction analyses. (Source - Svk Kraftbalansen Vår 2026) (Part of the broader 112-quarter manual-correction programme that runs from 25 April 2025 and ends after 28 June 2026 — see Manual price corrections above.)
• 18–27 December 2025 — very high imbalance prices, no adjustment: Svk reviewed the period and made no price adjustment. Its explanation: large imbalances and a big need for up-regulation, at times coinciding with cheap northern resources being locked in by an already fully used grid; periods of heavily loaded grid requiring actions to stay within security limits; and on some days a clear fall in total up-regulation bid volume. (Source - Svk Utredning mFRR-priser December 2025 - Januari 2026)
• 13 January 2026, 17:45–18:00 — one quarter-hour adjusted: the published 284 EUR in all four zones was cut to 84.82 (SE1, SE2), 120.07 (SE3) and 119.09 (SE4), because “illogical bid choices” in the algorithm had distorted the marginal price; the adjustment was coordinated across the Nordics and the cause was to be investigated further. This shows illogical-bid effects persisted after the end-November 2025 fix below. (Source - Svk Utredning mFRR-priser December 2025 - Januari 2026)
• 8 June 2026 — bid-stack exhaustion: two independent simultaneous faults (an SE2↔SE3 line de-energised when people climbed a tower; −500 MW lost on the Swe-Pol Link) drove frequency to 49.80 Hz. Svk activated 701 MW mFRR in SE3 + 255 MW in SE4 in the 15:30–15:45 quarter — enough that every bid in SE3 and SE4 was exhausted, forcing four gas-turbine starts plus 200 MW each imported from Lithuania and Norway. The activations produced high mFRR and imbalance (obalans) prices in SE3/SE4. (Source - Svk Driftstörningar 8 Juni 2026)

The BRP-protection principle: Svk’s stated position is that larger grid incidents should not economically harm the balansansvariga — so the high SE3/SE4 prices from 8 June will likely be adjusted down after the affected quarters are investigated. This is an ex-post imbalance-price correction: the energy-activation prices that BRPs settle against (via eSett, see BSP and BRP Roles) can be revised when a major incident, rather than BRP forecast error, caused the scarcity. It protects BRPs financially but adds no physical reserve depth — the deeper read is in Capacity Adequacy and Flexibility as the Missing Reserve › 8 June 2026 — a reserve-exhaustion event in miniature.

Imbalance-price reform (2026 → 2027)

The high and volatile obalanskostnader since the March 2025 digitalised balancing solution are now formally on the reform track. In March 2026 Svk concluded that the Swedish imbalance pricing (obalansprissättning) needs updating — for fairer cost allocation and to reduce the risk of extreme prices. The change needs Ei approval (which can take up to six months), so a revised imbalance price can take effect earliest March 2027. This was confirmed in Betänkande 2025/26:NU25 (June 2026), where the Riksdag rejected the C-motion’s call for a Svk mandate to curb the volatility — the utskott’s reasoning being that the responsible authorities have already identified the problem and have measures under way. (Source - Prop. 2025-26-240 Nya lagar om elsystemet (2026))

Market supply side — BSP counts and concentration

Prequalified provider counts as of Q4 2024 (Source - Svk Balancing Market Outlook 2030 (2024)):

aFRR is by far the most concentrated market: only 6 BSPs, none added in 2023 or 2024, despite the market being open since December 2022. The high prequalified volume (2,340/2,400 MW) relative to current demand (106/111 MW) reflects mostly hydro capacity that bids opportunistically when prices are high. The entry barrier for aFRR is the 5-minute activation requirement and 1 MW minimum bid, which limits battery and demand-response participation. New BSP entry is expected when Svk connects to PICASSO (targeted Q4 2027 in Svk’s 2026 update).

FCR markets have grown rapidly — FFR added 11 providers in two years, FCR-D added 10 per product. The FCR trend reflects easier qualification (0.1 MW minimum, type qualification pathway for batteries) and rising revenues attracting new entrants.

Appendix — monthly Swedish series, 2023–2026

The same series, with the figures that only Svk’s monthly reports give (mFRR premium over spot, share of Sweden’s requirement called in Sweden), is shown as charts and tables in the Swedish Balancing Market Dashboard.

Monthly prices for the Swedish reserve products from January 2023 to September 2026, built from Svenska kraftnät’s own Mimer exports (FCR, mFRR capacity, mFRR energy) and, for aFRR capacity, from Energinet’s common Nordic aFRR market dataset, which reproduces Svk’s published zone prices (Source - Svk Mimer Reserve Price Exports (2026), Source - Energinet aFRR Capacity Market Data (2026)). Every price is the simple mean of the hourly price over the month (15-minute prices for the mFRR EAM), in Swedish local time and EUR/MW (capacity) or EUR/MWh (energy); this is how Svk’s monthly reports are built, and the figures in the sections above for February–August 2026 are reproduced to within the report’s rounding (0.1 EUR/MW for FCR, a few tenths for mFRR capacity). How closely each product reproduces Svk’s reports, and where it does not, is documented on the source pages.

Reading notes:

• FCR: up to January 2024 Svk’s prices are average prices on procured capacity; from February 2024 they are marginal prices, volume-weighted over the two auctions, so the step between January and February 2024 mixes market change and price-basis change. FCR is one common market with DK2.
• aFRR capacity: a zone price from the common Nordic market, available in every hour; Swedish bidders were often not the ones procured.
• mFRR capacity: the market started on 18 October 2023, so October 2023 is a part month; there is no earlier data.
• mFRR energy: two different markets. Up to 4 March 2025 the old hourly activation market (price on activated energy); from 5 March 2025 the 15-minute EAM. March 2025 therefore appears twice, each a part month, and prices before and after are not like-for-like.
• October 2026 is excluded (part month). Activated volumes are the sum over the four zones; EAM volumes are scheduled plus direct activations.

FCR (EUR/MW, Sweden)

aFRR capacity (EUR/MW, up / down per zone)

mFRR capacity (EUR/MW, up / down per zone)

mFRR energy (SE3 price, EUR/MWh; Sweden activated volume, GWh)

See also

• Balancing Markets — product definitions, EU regulatory framework, NBM, BSP/BRP roles, product specifications, and market-design analysis
• The Swedish BESS Business Case — Revenue Stacking and the FCR Saturation Problem — the saturation dynamic behind the FCR price erosion
• Nordic Battery Revenue Trends 2023–2026 — the Nordic view: Clean Horizon revenue index and reserve prices in Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway
• Capacity Adequacy and Flexibility as the Missing Reserve — strategic reserve and the adequacy picture
• Nordic Balancing Model — the joint Nordic TSO redesign programme
• BSP and BRP Roles — the contractual roles and settlement via eSett