Energiindikatorer 2026 (ER 2026-14)

Document: ER 2026:14, Energiindikatorer 2026 — Uppföljning av Sveriges energipolitiska mål. Energimyndigheten (Swedish Energy Agency). Published May 2026. Energimyndigheten’s flagship annual indicator report, tracking Sweden’s energy-policy targets across 12 chapters (planning targets, security of supply, energy intensity, fossil-free electricity, research funding, national climate targets, gender equality, EU targets, district heating, market structure and prices). 209 pages.

Companion data file: Energiindikatorer-i-siffror-2026.xlsx — the underlying dataset for every figure in the PDF, as a 44-sheet Excel workbook with matching section numbering (e.g. sheet 3.6 = report section 3.6). Grouped into this one source page as a data annex, per the vault’s convention for supplements to a primary document.

Scope of this ingest: only section 3.6, “Flexibilitet i elsystemet” (pp. 29–44) and its companion Excel sheet were read in full — the rest of the 209-page report covers energy intensity, EU renewable-share targets, gender in the energy sector, district heating, and fuel prices, outside this wiki’s flexibility scope. Read fully, not skimmed, within that scope.

The taxonomy’s real origin — a correction

Section 3.6.1 states plainly, in a footnote, that the fourth flexibility category was added by Power Circle’s 2024 factsheet “Vad är flexibilitet?” — not by either of the two 2025 reports (FlexAbility Delrapport 1, Energimyndigheten ER 2025:20) that the wiki had credited with it. Both 2025 reports post-date the 2024 factsheet and both restate the same fourth category under near-identical names (beredskap / energiberedskap) — consistent with both building on that earlier origin rather than reaching it independently. See Flexibility › Four-category flexibility taxonomy, corrected on this basis.

Energimyndigheten’s own indicator work has only built out indicators for two of the four categories so far — flexibilitet för överföring (transmission/network relief) and flexibilitet för balansering — explicitly judging the other two (energi, beredskap) not yet well-enough bounded for measurement. This is worth remembering: the four-category taxonomy is conceptually settled but only half operationalised even by the agency that reports on it annually.

Flexibilitet för överföringskapacitet — official 2023/2024 indicator data

Sourced from Ei’s EIFS 2022:5 mandatory smart-grid reporting (companies with ≥5,000 customers, or fewer with a boundary-metering obligation) — the first year this data has been compiled into the indicator report.

Connected energy storage capacity (MW, local vs. regional grid):

Local-grid “other” storage growth is attributed at least partly to the steady rise in Swedish home batteries. Regional-grid capacity is entirely directly-connected. Caveat on transmission-level data: Svk itself told Ei the “other energy storage” figure it reported for transmission level should really read 0 kW — the figure as compiled actually reflects total pre-qualified balancing-market storage volume, a different thing being miscategorised in this reporting cycle. A live data-quality caveat, not settled.

Bilateral-agreement call-offs (actual MW called, not contracted capacity):

Number of bilateral agreements grew from 22→32 (network company↔producer) and 233→393 (network company↔user), 2023→2024 — read as rising interest in this flexibility form even though transmission-level call-off volume fell.

Flexibility-market call-offs (up/down regulation, actual MW called):

The headline adoption number: across local, regional, and transmission level combined, only 7 Swedish grid companies report ever having called on a flexibility market for up- or down-regulation, in either 2023 or 2024. Ei’s own assessment (cited in-report): flexibility-solution use will need to increase, particularly if variable generation buildout continues.

Flexibilitet för balansering — balancing-market indicators

Pre-qualified capacity by technology (Svk data, registered each January):

*Övriga = hydro+battery combinations, wind+battery combinations, nuclear, and solar. Energy storage’s growth (240→6,060 MW pre-qualified, a 25× rise in two years) is the standout trend — most from battery storage.

Balancing-market price structure changes, with causal narrative (not just numbers — this is the genuinely new content beyond what a chart alone would show):

• FCR pricing: highly volatile 2022–2023, stabilised from early 2024 — attributed to pre-qualified volume growth/diversification (less pure dependence on hydro availability) and FCR’s shift from pay-as-bid to marginal pricing in early 2024, which produced more efficient, stable price formation.
• aFRR: priced on a shared Nordic capacity market; Sweden is a price-taker on much of its own requirement — in December 2025, only 7.5% of Sweden’s aFRR-up volume requirement was met by Swedish bids (the rest imported, mainly from southern Norway and Finland, on more competitive pricing); the figure was ~62% for aFRR-down. Sweden is slated to join the European PICASSO aFRR platform (with an accompanying energy-activation market) at the end of 2027.
• mFRR: both a capacity market (mFRR-CM, since October 2023) and an energy-activation market (mFRR-EAM). Since late 2024 Sweden procures mFRR capacity jointly with Finland and Denmark. Local (Swedish-cleared) mFRR-up capacity prices rose sharply late 2024–early 2025, attributed to the March 2025 automated mFRR-EAM launch (which raised the requirement for each bidding area to hold sufficient own mFRR capacity) compounding with October 2024’s move to flow-based capacity calculation, which left less transfer capacity available for balancing — pushing imbalance-handling to be more local and more frequent, with cheaper resources in northern Sweden or neighbouring countries more often unavailable to relieve it. (The report’s SE4-specific note is separate: it attributes especially high SE4 mFRR-down prices in autumn 2025 to a handful of days with very high hourly prices, not to the flow-based/EAM mechanism.)

This causal chain — flow-based capacity calculation → less inter-area balancing capacity → more local activation needed → higher local mFRR-up prices — is a genuinely new mechanism explanation for the wiki; the existing balancing-market coverage has price data but not this specific 2024–2025 structural narrative.

Relevance to wiki