Ei R2026-07 Vägledande Mål Icke-fossil Flexibilitet (2026)

Ei R2026:07, “Förslag på vägledande nationellt mål för icke-fossil flexibilitet till 2030 och 2035” — Energimarknadsinspektionen’s proposal, published September 2026, for Sweden’s guiding (non-binding) national target for non-fossil flexibility under Art. 19f of the revised EU Electricity Market Regulation ((EU) 2024/1747). Authors: Johan Anderson, Pia Grahn, Eva Svanberg. Commissioned via regleringsbrev 18 December 2025; this report is the final deliverable. Built directly on Svenska kraftnät’s FNA2026 report, which Ei approved in July 2026 (resolving that source page’s open data gap on Ei’s approval status).

Headline proposal

Ei proposes the vägledande nationellt mål be 0 MW for both 2030 and 2035 — i.e., no additional non-fossil flexibility capacity is needed, on top of what’s already expected to exist, purely for the purpose of integrating renewable electricity generation. Because the target is 0 MW, Ei explicitly declines to propose specific contribution splits from demand response, energy storage, or generation — even though the original government assignment asked for exactly that breakdown. A vägledande mål carries no legal penalty if missed; it exists primarily to justify (or not justify) support schemes or market-barrier removal for non-fossil flexibility under the regulation.

Why 0 MW: the underlying numbers

Ei’s target is derived entirely from Svk’s FNA2026 “RES integration” need component — deliberately excluding ramping needs and short-term (forecast-error) flexibility needs, which the report scopes out as balance-market matters, not target-setting inputs.

Renewable-share scenarios used as FNA input (Table 1, p.14):

Surplus/deficit vs. the integration target (Table 2, p.15 — reconstructed via pdfplumber word-coordinate extraction, since pdftotext -layout mangled the original column alignment):

In the base scenario — the one the target is actually based on — Sweden’s projected renewable generation exceeds the integration target in every year: a 40 TWh surplus in 2030, 23 TWh in 2035. Only the high-scenario sensitivity case (not used for the actual target) flips to a 4 TWh deficit by 2035 — about 2% of that year’s 189 TWh total renewable volume, described in the report as an “icke-täckt behov av nedreglering” (uncovered down-regulation need). Ei is explicit that the high scenario is shown only to illustrate sensitivity to the integration-target assumption, not as a basis for policy.

Scope and process notes

• This is a proposal, not the final decision. Per Art. 19f, the government makes the actual target decision; this report is the underlying analytical basis (“underlag”). The government’s decision is expected to feed into Sweden’s integrated national energy and climate plan (NECP) update.
• Excludes ramping and short-term flexibility needs by design — those are balance/intraday-market matters (per FNAM methodology), not part of the RES-integration target basis.
• Distribution-network flexibility needs are separately assessed (not part of this target) and, per the underlying FNA2026 report, are expected to be met by network reinforcement or flexibility services regardless.
• Ei still maintains, separately from this target, its general strategy to promote demand-side flexibility for other reasons (grid utilization, faster connections, price smoothing) — the 0 MW target says nothing about those other drivers, only about the specific RES-integration test the regulation requires.

Bilaga 1 — supplementary flexibility framework (background, not new)

The report’s appendix restates an existing Ei framework (from Ei R2023:18, Deluppdrag 5) dividing flexibility by timescale/purpose — flexibility for energy (15 min–years), for balancing (real-time–15 min), for transmission/capacity (minutes–hours, geographically local), and for energiberedskap/preparedness (hours–years) — plus a bransch × typ × resurs resource taxonomy (Table 3, p.23). This is not new analysis; it is largely a restatement of prior Ei/Energimyndigheten material already reflected elsewhere in this wiki’s flexibility-taxonomy treatment.

Relevance to wiki topics