Source - VF NUP Bilaga 1 Prognos Lokalnät per Kommun
Source metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Title | Bilaga 1 — Nätutvecklingsplan 2025-2034: Prognos Lokalnät per Kommun |
| Author | Vattenfall Eldistribution AB |
| Confidentiality | C1 Public |
| Pages | 6 |
| Type | Annex to DNDP (see Source - Vattenfall Eldistribution Nätutvecklingsplan 2025-2034) |
| Raw file | VF-NUP-bilaga-1-prognos-lokalnat-per-kommun.pdf |
Summary
Municipality-level local grid (lokalnät) consumption forecast annex to Vattenfall Eldistribution‘s DNDP 2025-2034. Published separately from the main DNDP in response to consultation feedback requesting greater geographic granularity. Covers ~90 municipalities across 13 counties where Vattenfall holds a network concession for area (nätkoncession för område). All figures are incremental kW (additional load above a base year), not absolute totals.
Important caveats (from the document)
- No starting values: multiple municipalities may share a single substation, making base-year allocation ambiguous. Figures show incremental additions only.
- Partial coverage: municipalities with few subscribers and low growth are excluded (not reported).
- Shared territory: Vattenfall does not hold exclusive concession in all reported municipalities; growth in areas served by other DSOs is not reflected.
- Local only: figures cover Vattenfall’s lokalnät (local distribution grid), not its regionnät (regional grid). Regional grid growth is covered in the main DNDP and is far larger (~7,500 MW total vs ~510 MW local by 2034).
- Methodology: identical to main DNDP Section 2.1 — förstudieavtal-gated, sannolikhetsjusterad forecasts.
Key data
County totals (incremental kW, local grid)
| County | 2025 | 2030 | 2034 | Primary growth driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockholm | 28,370 | 127,720 | 153,940 | Residential/commercial, EV charging |
| Uppsala | 16,250 | 81,450 | 99,760 | Uppsala city, Knivsta, Enköping |
| Södermanland | 8,890 | 43,300 | 60,350 | Nyköping industrial, Trosa |
| Västra Götaland | 16,250 | 90,280 | 106,520 | Stenungsund petrochem, Vänersborg, Borås |
| Norrbotten | 18,350 | 67,930 | 74,790 | Arjeplog/Arvidsjaur car-testing, Kiruna, Gällivare |
| Jönköping | 6,330 | 32,750 | 34,200 | Vaggeryd industrial, Jönköping city |
| Västerbotten | 4,460 | 21,360 | 24,330 | Storuman wind-related, Nordmaling |
| Östergötland | 3,910 | 19,330 | 23,400 | Motala, Finspång |
| Västmanland | 1,400 | 8,670 | 11,380 | Västerås, Surahammar |
| Dalarna | 1,790 | 8,890 | 10,280 | Avesta (only municipality) |
| Västernorrland | 1,200 | 8,340 | 9,590 | Örnsköldsvik (only municipality) |
| Värmland | 2,420 | 7,890 | 8,700 | Säffle, Årjäng |
| Örebro | 460 | 4,450 | 5,810 | Askersund (only municipality) |
| Total | ~110 MW | ~522 MW | ~623 MW |
Notable municipalities
Largest absolute additions (2034):
- Sigtuna: 4,920→26,590 kW — airport area, data centers
- Nyköping: 5,290→30,620 kW — Sörmland industrial electrification
- Stenungsund: 3,480→18,760 kW — petrochem electrification (INEOS, Borealis)
- Uppsala: 11,600→67,580 kW — largest single municipality; driven by residential growth, industry, and server/data center expansion
- Vaggeryd: 2,760→14,410 kW — concentrated industrial growth in Jönköping county
Norrbotten / car-testing and industry:
- Arjeplog: 3,750→15,670 kW — car testing industry (major growth, plateauing post-2028)
- Arvidsjaur: 2,930→13,530 kW — car testing
- Gällivare: 1,530→8,870 kW — steel industry electrification
- Kiruna: 2,280→8,610 kW — mining electrification
Non-linear growth pattern:
- Storuman (Västerbotten): 1,790→6,780 kW by 2029, then jumps to 11,040 in 2030 — likely reflecting a large wind-related connection or industrial customer scheduled for that year
- Askersund (Örebro): similar jump pattern 2030
Relationship to main DNDP
Bilaga 1 provides the lokalnät geographic detail that the main DNDP (covering regionnät only in its Section 2.2) omits. The figures are methodologically consistent with the main DNDP but smaller by two orders of magnitude — local grid growth is measured in kW/municipality while regional grid growth is measured in MW/area.
Cross-reference: the main DNDP notes that Uppsala (Mellan area) and Stockholm local grids have active Villkorade Avtal programs — Bilaga 1 shows that Uppsala city’s local grid alone is forecast to add ~68 MW of incremental load by 2034, the single largest local growth item in Vattenfall’s service territory.
Relevance to wiki
- Vattenfall Eldistribution: provides municipality-level granularity for the entity page
- Distribution Network Development Plan: Bilaga 1 was added as a direct response to consultation feedback on geographic resolution — a concrete example of DNDPs becoming more detailed under stakeholder pressure
- Villkorade Avtal: local grid growth in Uppsala and Stockholm confirms why Vattenfall actively uses villkorade avtal at lokalnät level in these areas