Ellevio Nätutvecklingsplan 2027-2036 (Samrådsversion)

Ellevio AB, “Nätutvecklingsplan 2027–2036” (samrådsversion), 2026. Ellevio’s second DNDP cycle, following its first mandatory plan (2025–2034). Read to check whether Ellevio’s “early on the maturity ladder” (Ellevio) flexibility stance has moved, and to compare quantification methodology against the first cycle.

Headline figures

• 2,568 MW forecast additional consumption need by 2036; 2,497 MW forecast additional production.
• 258 capacity-strengthening investment projects; 2,400 connection applications included in the forecast model; 964,000 customers.
• 180–320 MW identified flexibility need, 2032–2036 — Ellevio’s first DNDP-native aggregate flexibility-need figure (the first DNDP reported need per delområde in its Tabell 3, with no headline total).

What’s new versus the first DNDP — a methodology expansion, not a stance change

Scope widened to include local grid needs. Ellevio states explicitly this is the first cycle where its flexibility-need analysis covers not just constraints at gränspunkter with the overlying grid, but local (lokalnät) flexibility needs too — a genuine methodological expansion, aggregated to county level in Tabell 7.

Per-county flex need (Tabell 7, MW, 0–5yr / 6–10yr): Halland ~47 → ~40 MW; Värmland’s short-term consumption need at the Borgvik gränspunkt is ~0–20 MW (its 50 MW figure is on the production side, long-term 0–50 MW) — the extracted Tabell 7 text is garbled by the PDF conversion, so county-row figures should be re-verified against the original PDF before being cited elsewhere; Torpberget and Laforsen (delområden, not counties) and Jämtland show no need, resolved by existing infrastructure and planned investments (no NordSyd attribution found in the source for these specific areas).

Stance mostly unchanged, but pilot work is underway: still “tidigt i mognadstrappan” (early on the maturity ladder). Market-based solutions are explicitly stated as absent in every delområde (“marknadsmässiga lösningar i dagsläget saknas”); villkorade avtal remains the fitting tool wherever a need exists. The source states current work “fokuserar för närvarande på pilotprojekt och utveckling av driftstöd” (focuses currently on pilot projects and development of operational support) — so unlike the page’s earlier “no pilot relaunch” framing, pilot-project work is in fact underway; no market-based solution has been announced, however, so Ellevio’s overall framing is still close to its first DNDP.

Relevance to this wiki

• Ellevio: primary update target — new aggregate MW figure, methodology-scope expansion, per-county Tabell 7 data.
• Second-cycle DNDP trend: alongside Source - E.ON Nätutvecklingsplan 2027-2036 (Preliminär), Source - Kraftringen Nät Nätutvecklingsplan 2027-2036 (Samrådsversion), and Source - Vattenfall Eldistribution Nätutvecklingsplan 2027-2036 (Samrådsversion) — useful cross-DSO comparison: Ellevio is the case of quantification maturing (first DNDP-native MW figure) with stance holding flat, versus Vattenfall’s quantification-plus-softened-stance in the same cycle.

Data gaps

See Ellevio‘s Data gaps for the open question on whether the 180–320 MW aggregate figure decomposes by direction.