Vattenfall Eldistribution Nätutvecklingsplan 2027-2036 (Samrådsversion)

Vattenfall Eldistribution AB, “Nätutvecklingsplan 2027–2036” (samrådsversion), 2026. Vattenfall’s second DNDP cycle, following its first-ever mandatory plan (2025–2034). Read specifically to compare against the 2025–2034 baseline and check whether Vattenfall’s declared “no conditions for market-based flexibility anywhere” stance (Vattenfall Eldistribution) has moved.

What’s confirmed unchanged

The cost-comparison argument against market-based flexibility is repeated with the same figures: grid investment ≈ 0.27 MSEK/MW/year, versus a flexibility availability contract at 4–8 MSEK/MW/year — the same ~15–30× gap from the first DNDP. As in the first plan, the figures come with the caveat that the calculation is “teoretisk” (theoretical), because very few actors today are judged to meet the technical requirements (e.g. endurance) for delivering services that could replace grid. Villkorade avtal are described as what Vattenfall currently offers, to a limited number of customers in both regional and local grid (section 2.4.2). Of the pilots, the plan names CoordiNet (four marketplaces tested) and sthlmflex (a flexibility market in Greater Stockholm, which Vattenfall chose to pause because the preconditions for well-functioning markets were lacking at the time); UppFlex is not named in this plan. The evaluation finding is unchanged: markets so far had too little liquidity for competition and price formation, and service reliability was insufficient.

What’s new

• First explicit annual investment figure in the wiki for Vattenfall: approximately 11 miljarder SEK/year (“Vattenfall Eldistribution omkring 11 miljarder kronor per år i elnätet”).
• A modest shift in framing. The 2025–2034 DNDP said preconditions for a functioning flexibility market seldom exist (“sällan finns förutsättningar för en fungerande flexibilitetsmarknad”) and set the flex strategy as focusing on villkorade avtal for now. This plan states that Vattenfall “utesluter inte möjligheten att i framtiden upphandla flexibilitetsresurser, under förutsättning att det finns likvida och effektiva marknader för flexibilitet” (does not rule out procuring flexibility resources in future, provided liquid and effective markets exist), that it follows market development closely, and that regulation must become clearer and the market must mature. No active market exists and none is announced.
• Flexibility need is now tabulated, per län and kommun. Unlike the first plan’s N/A, section 2.4.2 reports need in MW for 0–5 years (forecast year 2030) and 6–10 years (2035), the same forecast years as the FNA: regionnät per län (e.g. Norrbotten, downregulation 0–93.6 MW at 0–5 years, 0–218.3 MW at 6–10 years) and lokalnät per kommun (e.g. Arvidsjaur, upregulation 0–15.8 MW at 0–5 years). Upregulation is judged very limited in regionnät and not quantified there. No aggregate total is stated in the text reviewed.
• FlexConnect: a new-to-the-wiki R&D pilot testing flexible connections for EV fast-charging, for EV fast-charging “där det idag råder brist på tillgänglig kapacitet kopplat till spänningsproblematik” (where available capacity is currently scarce due to voltage problems). Where the grid in the area cannot hold voltage, available power to fast chargers is prioritised down; Vattenfall says it is now taking in more customers and testing other types of limitation. (The plan separately notes that flexible-contract demand is typical for charging infrastructure where the grid has capacity in normal but not reserve operation; that point is not tied to FlexConnect.)
• Villkorade avtal cost-comparison methodology is explicitly tied to Ei-approved standardized comparisons (schablonmässiga jämförelser), reinforcing that this isn’t a one-off Vattenfall calculation but methodology now recognized by Ei.

Relevance to this wiki

• Vattenfall Eldistribution: primary update target — investment figure, stance-softening language, FlexConnect.
• Second-cycle DNDP trend: alongside Source - E.ON Nätutvecklingsplan 2027-2036 (Preliminär), Source - Kraftringen Nät Nätutvecklingsplan 2027-2036 (Samrådsversion), and Source - Ellevio Nätutvecklingsplan 2027-2036 (Samrådsversion) — the 2027–2036 samrådsversion cycle across five DSOs read this week, useful for a cross-DSO “what changed in two years” comparison.

Data gaps

See Vattenfall Eldistribution‘s Data gaps for the open question on whether the softened stance language survives into the final version.